海角大神

Just down a thickly forested road from the Buchenwald concentration camp memorial here in the historic city of Weimar, a young mother wrangling her three children at a church pizza party talks about the hopes and fears she has for their future.

This region shocked mainstream Germany by handing victory to the far-right extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in September state elections, and like many political conversations here, this one takes an unexpected turn.

鈥淚 spent a year in Israel working with Holocaust survivors,鈥� says the mom, working to establish her progressive bona fides. 鈥淢y circle is full of leftist voices, and we always say, 鈥楴ever again 鈥� never could we ever let something like the Holocaust happen again.鈥欌��

Then, descending into a whisper, with a toddler clutching her leg, Caroline, who would share only her first name, says: 鈥淏ut, I鈥檓 still thinking about voting for the AfD.鈥�

The AfD, which has been labeled by the federal government for suspected right-wing extremism, took 33% of votes, a first-place finish, in this state of Thuringia in September. Its leader in Thuringia has been fined for using banned Nazi-era language. Next door in the state of Saxony, the party took a close second with about 30% percent. (Nationally, polls show the party is second in popularity, at 17%, behind the center-right 海角大神 Democratic Union at 32%.)

As embarrassed as she seems, Caroline grounds her position in a feeling of displacement: 鈥淚 just don鈥檛 feel at home in my country anymore.鈥�

She recently found herself among women wearing headscarves in a market square in a nearby town: 鈥淭hey were talking in Arabic, and they didn鈥檛 make eye contact with me, and I felt foreign in my own country. I鈥檓 afraid of the Islamicization of Germany, when I think of what happened [on Oct. 7, 2023] in Israel, how brutal it can all be.鈥�

Adjusting the toddler, who has migrated to a perch on her hip, she says, eyes downcast: 鈥淚 know it鈥檚 taboo to say this.鈥� And she clarifies that she knows that Muslim 鈥渞efugees are not Hamas,鈥� and that, more broadly, respected Muslim organizations in Germany have condemned Hamas violence.

And yet, Caroline 鈥� at the tipping point of sympathy for the AFD 鈥� shares a mood that has helped push the party into second place in German opinion polls ahead of the 2025 federal elections.

Dispirited Thuringia is an ideal place to study the influence of radicalization politics, not only because the Nazis first tasted power here a century ago, but also for the foothold the far right has gained now.

Mainstream parties have found it an uphill battle to establish themselves securely in Thuringia. The state鈥檚 communist past stripped it of the vibrant churches, independent trade unions, and other civic organizations that in west Germany served as the building blocks of democracy, says Daniela Schwarzer, an international affairs expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, an independent foundation.

鈥淭huringia is a place that sits at a significant distance from institutions, from Berlin, from politics, and I would say even from democracy,鈥� adds Johannes Kie脽, a sociologist at the University of Leipzig.

Displeasure at mass immigration, an east German identity still beleaguered 35 years after the fall of communism, and a dampened economic outlook all provide fertile soil for extremism 鈥� prompting one-third of Thuringian voters to choose the far-right ballot.

They are moved by broader doubts about the Western democratic model, says Jens-海角大神 Wagner, a historian and director of the Buchenwald Memorial.

鈥淩ight-wing, authoritarian, anti-liberal ideas and practices are gaining weight 鈥� that is a global phenomenon. It鈥檚 not just happening in Thuringia,鈥� says Dr. Wagner. 鈥淲e Germans 鈥� have lived under dictatorship; it鈥檚 not the same in the U.S., where there鈥檚 no historic experience of how a far-right government looks and acts. But we are all under threat.鈥�

A training ground for the Nazis

A century ago, Thuringia was an ideal training ground for the National Socialists.

Sparsely populated, the region boasts the dense Thuringian Forest, an ancient mountain range around which small towns were scattered. Thuringia鈥檚 emerging industries were depressed after World War I, and the parties of the ruling Weimar Republic were constantly fighting among themselves.

Enter the Nazi party, adept at moving into politically unstable and economically depressed regions. 鈥淎nd, in 1924 came the original sin on the road to the National Socialist state,鈥� says Dr. Wagner. Conservative nationalists in Thuringia, forced into the minority, cooperated with the Nazi-backed far right. That decision eventually allowed the Nazis to slip into the state parliament, gain control of the interior ministry, and ultimately enter the regional government.

鈥淭hat was the end of democracy in Thuringia, and we all paid dearly for it,鈥� says Dr. Wagner.

During that era, Nazi slogans scapegoated Jews and the ruling Weimar government. 鈥淏lood and soil鈥� spoke to farmers; 鈥淔or a strong Germany鈥� stoked nationalist pride, and 鈥淒eath to Judah鈥� promoted antisemitic feelings.

Today, the AfD targets Germany鈥檚 mainstream parties and the country鈥檚 resident Muslims with slogans such as 鈥淭huringia first,鈥� 鈥淧rotect our homeland,鈥� and 鈥淲e will stop the flooding of our country.鈥� (Muslims number 5.5 million, or 7% of the population; more than half of them are German citizens.)

The charged rhetoric taps fears in Thuringia, where the party鈥檚 hard-line stance on immigration resonates, says Dr. Schwarzer, the international affairs expert. 鈥淥ne thing is clear: Unlike in the past, the majority of AfD voters are no longer casting protest votes. They are聽genuinely convinced by the party鈥檚 offering.鈥�

鈥淲e want respect鈥�

Holger Klopfleisch鈥檚 family line goes back 500 years in Thuringia.

The reasons for the far right鈥檚 rise are manifest in his hometown of Niedertreba. As Mr. Klopfleisch walks down the town鈥檚 sedate streets, his body battered by a lifetime of farming, he passes his childhood schoolhouse that no longer has any pupils. The majestic town church with its tar-black spires, dating to the 1700s, is attracting fewer and fewer faithful. The town dentist and doctor moved on long ago.

鈥淭here used to be two grocery stores, too,鈥� he says.

Yet Mr. Klopfleisch stays in his town in the German heartland, population 749, his head held high. 鈥淭he Klopfleisches in Thuringia were pastors, and farmers, and an archaeology professor who has a street in Jena named after him,鈥� he says, proudly.

As a young adult when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, he watched dozens of his former schoolmates decamp to seek opportunity in West Germany or in larger cities in the east, while East German-era state run industries collapsed.

He toiled alongside his parents to breathe new life into the family farm in a market economy, only to see mainstream politicians now remove diesel subsidies, slap demanding environmental regulations on farmers, and fall short in managing an influx of 4.5 million immigrants in 2022 and 2023.

鈥淭he AfD鈥檚 victory is a warning shot to the mainstream parties to act,鈥� says Mr. Klopfleisch, who votes center-right. 鈥淚 understand why people are dissatisfied. West Germany looks down on us. I want them to look at Thuringia at eye level. I want more respect for the people in Thuringia.鈥�

And, there鈥檚 plenty to be proud of, he says. West German farmers learned about collective farming from their eastern cousins, and nearby Weimar, Thuringia鈥檚 shining jewel of a city, is dotted with UNESCO world heritage sites that draw 8 million tourists a year. Martin Luther often preached in the city church, and the city became the birthplace of the German Enlightenment, home to writer-philosophers Goethe and Schiller, and the namesake of the Weimar Republic.

Mr. Klopfleisch will often argue with his daughter by invoking Goethe鈥檚 poem 鈥淭he Sorcerer鈥檚 Apprentice.鈥�

鈥淚 tell her to 鈥楪o into the lonely corner, broom!鈥欌�� says Mr. Klopfleisch, chuckling. 鈥淢y daughter laughs and says 鈥榊eah, Papa!鈥欌��

Echoes of Germany鈥檚 past

Maik Baier decided a decade ago to cast his lot with the AfD, and he was elected this year to the city council in Bautzen, in Saxony.

He ditched the center-right conservatives because they have long neglected education and the economy in his corner of east Germany, and never cared for 鈥渢he people at the bottom,鈥� he says. Those were regular folks like himself with his struggling tattoo shop, his parents who were devastated during the reunification years, and his teenage son who is now seeking construction work.

鈥淓verything in Germany is going downhill,鈥� he says, sitting in his empty tattoo parlor.

鈥淚 tell my son 鈥榃ork with your hands,鈥� because craftsmen can鈥檛 be replaced by digitization. We [in the east] have had this experience of how quickly something can disappear, and we鈥檙e very, very sensitive to that possibility.鈥�

Unlike Caroline, the young mother at the church, however, Mr. Baier, doesn鈥檛 whisper when he expounds on a far-right talking point: that refugees from Muslim countries are to blame for Germany鈥檚 problems.

Bautzen is considered a 鈥渉otspot鈥� for hate crimes and tension between migrants and ethnic Germans. Mr. Baier says his girlfriend feels unsafe walking the streets alone and is fearful of migrant-related crime.

Torben Braga, an AfD member of Thuringia鈥檚 state parliament, insists the party鈥檚 anti-migration platform isn鈥檛 鈥淚slamophobic.鈥� Rather, he says, the party rightly describes Islam as a 鈥渟tate-related, political, social idea that is incompatible with German basic law.鈥�

A century ago, the Nazis鈥� rise from the forests of Thuringia to the German chancellorship 鈥� which Adolf Hitler assumed in 1933 鈥� would take a decade. While today鈥檚 police and military are more democratic, says the historian Dr. Wagner, he is concerned about the far right鈥檚 momentum. The AfD has expanded its voter base steadily since the party won just 10% of the vote in state elections a decade ago.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anyone in the AfD is planning to murder 6 million Muslims,鈥� Dr. Wagner says. But he notes, that Thuringia鈥檚 AfD leader Bj枚rn H枚cke has written that Germany will have to undertake a major 鈥�"remigration" project once his party is in government, and that it will require 鈥渉uman hardship鈥� and a policy of "well-tempered cruelty.鈥�

鈥淭hey are antidemocratic, authoritarian plans,鈥� Dr. Wagner says. 鈥淭hat isn鈥檛 exactly National Socialism, but it is ethnic right-wing extremism that will then show itself not only in plans, but also in practice.鈥�

鈥淎nd that,鈥� he warns, 鈥渋s dangerous.鈥�