海角大神

Alexei Navalny, Russia鈥檚 best-known and most indefatigable Kremlin opposition figure who died in an Arctic penal colony Friday under as yet unknown circumstances, might best be viewed as the proverbial 鈥渃anary in the coal mine鈥� of Russian politics.

Mr. Navalny鈥檚 life was often a sharp illustration of the hopes, frustrations, and limits faced by the first post-Soviet generation under the nearly 2 1/2 decades of Vladimir Putin鈥檚 rule. At every stage, he pushed the limits. He enjoyed some unusual successes, and was punished in ways both predictable聽鈥� as through the Kremlin-controlled legal system聽鈥� and bizarre, such as via his 2020 poisoning with an exotic nerve agent and now his sudden untimely death.

Very little is known about Mr. Navalny鈥檚 demise, which according to prison officials happened quickly after he returned from a walk in the maximum-security prison聽above the Arctic Circle known as Polar Wolf, where he had recently been transferred.

The prison is notorious for its harsh punishment regime, including solitary confinement, about which Mr. Navalny had complained repeatedly on his social media accounts. On the other hand, he was a relatively young and healthy man, and there had been few indications of ill health.

鈥淣avalny was a real opposition leader, and such leaders are not welcome in Russia. Our system does not need them,鈥� says Alexei Kondaurov, a former KGB general and, more recently, opposition deputy of the State Duma. 鈥淲ith his passing, there is practically no one left. To quote the poet Alexander Pushkin, 鈥楽ome are far distant, some are dead.鈥欌��

Rise and fall

Mr. Navalny was a young lawyer who dabbled in liberal and nationalist politics at the dawn of the Putin era. He gradually grew dissatisfied with established parties and began cultivating his own largely youthful following for a political agenda that was always hard to pin down, but was definitely anti-corruption, anti-authoritarian, and anti-Putin.

Unlike older Russian politicians, he was a master of social media and a brilliant blogger. His political stardom began to rise amid the mass protest movement that emerged after disputed Duma elections in 2011 and Mr. Putin鈥檚 return to the presidency the next year.

He made a major impact when he ran for mayor of Moscow in a snap election held in 2013. It was the only time the Putin-era system of 鈥渕anaged democracy鈥� ever allowed Mr. Navalny on a ballot, even though he鈥檇 just received the first of many criminal convictions. He shocked many by winning 27% of the votes against the Kremlin-anointed acting mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, who got 51%. It was characteristic of Mr. Navalny鈥檚 unrelenting style that he repeatedly challenged the result, in court and in public speeches.

Mr. Navalny, like many in Russia鈥檚 increasingly marginalized opposition, believed that Kremlin power was a weak facade and might be toppled by protests from below. In the run-up to the 2018 presidential elections, he organized street demonstrations that hit 100 Russian cities and put him on the map as Russia鈥檚 premier opposition figure. He made a special outreach to Russia鈥檚 Putin-era youth, though his efforts to radicalize them appears to have brought no lasting impact.

By 2020, it seemed that the Kremlin had contained the Navalny challenge, tolerating his activities that, though irritating to authorities, did not seem to create serious problems in the streets or in the carefully managed elections at various levels. Then, while on an organizing trip to Siberia, he fell deathly ill and was evacuated to Germany, where it was determined that he鈥檇 been poisoned by the nerve agent Novichok.

After his recovery, Mr. Navalny again demonstrated his tough, irrepressible character by declining a life of comfortable exile and returning to Russia with an appeal for people to take to the streets to overthrow Mr. Putin. He was arrested upon his arrival and subjected to a series of criminal sentences, an ordeal which ended with his death at the Polar Wolf prison colony.

What was the motive?

What baffles many observers is not the predictable repression of Russia鈥檚 state machinery, which reliably put Mr. Navalny out of political action more or less permanently. Rather, it is the capricious nature of his death, which, like the earlier Novichok poisoning, would seem to bring the Kremlin few benefits.

鈥淭he peak of Navalny鈥檚 popularity was in 2021, when he returned to Russia, and his name was on everyone鈥檚 lips,鈥� says Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, Russia鈥檚 only independent polling agency. 鈥淗is approval rating in those days was around 20%. After his arrest, and his disappearance from TV screens, his rating began to decline. By January 2024, it was less than 1%.鈥�

It will be widely assumed that the Kremlin ordered Mr. Navalny鈥檚 death, and there seems no doubt that Mr. Putin ultimately owns the whole sordid story.

But many Russians will believe, as they did during the earlier episode of Novichok poisoning, that Western intelligence agencies are somehow to blame.

鈥淭his death of Navalny comes at the worst possible moment for Putin, who is running for reelection and absolutely does not need this kind of publicity,鈥� says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser. 鈥淲hat we are witnessing is a murky undercover battle of secret services, and Navalny was just their pawn.鈥�

It remains unclear what Mr. Navalny鈥檚 legacy will be, as he joins a list of Putin opponents who have met grisly and often inexplicable ends over the past two decades.

鈥淣avalny became a symbol of the democratic part of the opposition, and his death doesn鈥檛 mean the opposition will disappear,鈥� says Alexander Verkhovsky, director of the Sova Center, which tracks extremist trends in Russia. 鈥淚ndeed, it suggests that our authorities are at a dead end.鈥�