海角大神

High up on the broad, glass-fronted, and largely automated bridge of the 50 Years of Victory, longtime captain Dmitry Lobusov says that there is no ice 鈥渂orn of the sea surface鈥� that his ship can鈥檛 handle. Which means, apparently, that he doesn鈥檛 tangle with icebergs.

But for anything less, the towering, double-hulled icebreaker the size of a nine-story building is unfazed. Its two nuclear reactors generate so much power that the ship has been able to smash its way through to the North Pole almost 60 times since it was commissioned 14 years ago. In fact, the ship often takes groups of up to 100 tourists to visit the Pole, at around $30,000 apiece.

Russia鈥檚 state-owned Atomflot company currently operates five such giant nuclear-powered icebreakers, an awesome symbol of Russia鈥檚 determination to press forward the former Soviet Union鈥檚 strategic priority to dominate and develop the Arctic. Within this decade the fleet will be joined by at least five more nuclear-powered icebreakers, each about twice as big and powerful as the present ships.

As global warming steadily erodes the Arctic ice sheets, exposing new undersea fisheries and oil fields for exploitation, the Kremlin is preparing the means to extend year-round economic activities into what it hopes will be a greatly enlarged zone of Russian control. It鈥檚 also banking on the Northeast Passage聽鈥� the 3,500 mile northern sea route between Asia and Europe over the top of Russia聽鈥� to become a major shipping alternative to the Suez Canal.

Russia鈥檚 competitors in the Arctic worry about the presence of the Russian military in the region, and what it could signal for its future. But that is a result of geographical and climate realities, Russian officials claim, and that the government鈥檚 goal is to bolster the economic potential of Arctic ports like Murmansk, not its military might in the far north.

鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to say that there is a big military buildup here, compared to what we鈥檝e always had,鈥� says聽Vitaly Akimov, spokesperson for the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Murmansk. 鈥淏ut we are getting more icebreakers, and that says a lot about what Russia鈥檚 goals are. We want economic development up here.鈥�

A Northeast Passage boom town?

Mr. Akimov says Murmansk鈥檚 economic growth is poised to take off as the聽Northeast Passage becomes a reality. 鈥淭here is a federal project to develop Murmansk as a transport hub,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e have an excellent port, with good railway and road connections to Moscow and the rest of Russia, and the聽Northeast Passage will create a global link.鈥�

Murmansk, a city of about 300,000 near the border with Norway, already has a recently modernized commercial port, which mainly serves to export coal from Russia鈥檚 vast interior these days. But experts say there is a lot of room for expansion. Russia鈥檚 biggest private gas company, Novatek, has a big project underway nearby to develop facilities for Arctic transport of liquefied natural gas.

In the Murmansk headquarters of Atomflot, a vast control room houses a giant electronic map showing the location of each ship in the entire Northeast Passage along with changing ice and weather conditions. They expect it to be a busy place in future. Russian President Vladimir Putin told a recent economic forum that 33 million tons of cargo transited the passage in 2020, and that amount is expected to rise to 80 million tons by 2024.

But while the Northeast Passage trek shaves at least two weeks off the traditional Suez Canal route between the Far East and Europe, the overall tonnage it sees is a far cry from that on the Suez Canal, which handles about 1 billion tons of cargo annually.

There are other complications, including the fact that ships making the聽Northeast Passage will need to be suitable for sailing in ice conditions聽鈥� not a requirement at the Suez Canal聽鈥� and the need for icebreakers will remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future.

鈥淚t depends a lot on changing circumstances with ice and weather,鈥� says Captain Lobusov. 鈥淪ometimes one icebreaker can pilot a route for 10 ships. But sometimes you need two icebreakers for one ship. It鈥檚 expensive, and time consuming.鈥�

Soldiers amid the ice

Moscow鈥檚 northern ambitions are often discussed in military terms. That鈥檚 hard to miss here on the Kola Peninsula, where Murmansk is Russia鈥檚 only ice-free port with open-ocean access, and people in military uniform abound in the streets. The nearby closed town of Severomorsk houses the Russian Navy鈥檚 northern fleet with dozens of major warships, including the country鈥檚 only aircraft carrier and a new class of ultra-modern nuclear-missile submarines.

But experts say the military buildup looms large in Western perceptions because geography handed Murmansk that fate. Thanks to the warm North Atlantic Current聽鈥� an extension of the Gulf Stream聽鈥� the Kola Bay is the only place in Russia鈥檚 far north that鈥檚 reliably ice-free year round. That, plus the fact that Murmansk has open-ocean access, is why Russia still bases about two-thirds of its nuclear missile submarines there, along with the big surface ships of the Northern Fleet.

鈥淩ussia has been re-opening several former Soviet air bases along the northern coast, but most activity is still on the Kola Peninsula, with all the associated air defenses and other military infrastructure,鈥� says Andrey Zagorsky, an arms control expert with the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

鈥淩ussia is the only Arctic state with substantial armed forces permanently stationed in the Arctic. By contrast, Canada鈥檚 Arctic fleet is based in Halifax, Nova Scotia. It鈥檚 true that Russia has unrivaled capabilities up there, but it鈥檚 not only aimed at war-fighting. Its purposes include countering oil spills, patrolling, ensuring security of the Northeast Passage, and so on,鈥� he says.

鈥淏ut we are presently living amid a confrontational atmosphere in relations with the West, and people tend only to look at capabilities and see them as threatening. It would be good if we could find ways to reduce tensions in the Arctic鈥� and broaden the scope for cooperation on issues like climate change and resource-sharing in the far north, he says.

鈥淓veryone is going to want to be here鈥�

Meanwhile, officials at Atomflot say global warming may be real, but they are not depending upon it to make the Northeast Passage a reality. For that, they will have the icebreakers. Enormous as it may be, the 50 Years of Victory is a nautical pipsqueak compared to the ice-crushing behemoths presently under construction.

鈥淚n the coming years we will double the size of our fleet, and the new ships will be much bigger and more capable鈥� of keeping the sea-lanes open in any conditions, says Vladimir Arutyunyan, head of sea operations for Atomflot.

鈥淚n 2010, there were only four ships that made the passage. Now there are several hundred,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hese big icebreakers will be needed for all our lives. The idea that it will be open waters 365 days a year is fiction. In winter, ice will still be present. There will be no activity in the Arctic without icebreakers,鈥� he says.

It is this sort of change 鈥� showing the Russian government鈥檚 determination to make the Northeast Passage a reality after decades of post-Soviet decline, and the emigration of almost half the region鈥檚 population聽鈥� that has turned some local people bullish on Murmansk.

鈥淲e can foresee that Murmansk is moving from a backwater to a center of economic activity,鈥� says Maxim Belov, a deputy of the regional legislature. 鈥淭his is the gateway to the Arctic. Murmansk has everything it needs to start booming in the years to come, and everyone is going to want to be here.鈥�

Be sure to read Part 1: With the melting Arctic opening up new opportunities and stirring old rivalries, the U.S. and Canada are trying a cooperative approach to tapping the thawing resources and trade routes.