海角大神

As hundreds of thousands of striking workers and their supporters took to the streets of France Thursday, demonstrating against government plans to reform the pension system, the authorities faced an even deeper problem.

Behind the protests lies a wholesale disgust with politics and politicians that bodes ill for French democracy.

Railway workers nationwide and public transport workers in the capital, Paris, have been on strike for five weeks to block President Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 pension reform plans. The longest such strike in 50 years has made life a misery for commuters and travelers, and polls have found three quarters of the population agreeing that France鈥檚 complex and deficit-ridden pension system needs reforming.

Yet public support for the strikers鈥� battle to defend one of the most generous pension systems in the world remains strong. According to a poll published Sunday, 44% support or sympathize with the strike, outweighing the 37% who are opposed or hostile to it.

鈥淪upport for the strikes is astonishingly high, considering the inconvenience they are causing,鈥� says Bruno Cautr猫s, who directs the annual Political Trust Barometer published by Cevipof, a Paris-based think tank. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 because there is a high level of social anxiety in the country that Macron has not calmed.鈥�

The government has in fact fed that anxiety, some observers say, by failing to set out clearly how different citizens鈥� pensions would be affected by the proposed reform.

鈥淢istrust is at the heart of this movement,鈥� says Pascal Perrineau, a leading political analyst. 鈥淧eople are saying 鈥榥o鈥� to everything. We are reaching a point where the level of distrust is making it very difficult for the government to govern.鈥�

A system in under strain

Pensions in France are high by international standards. The government devotes 14.3% of GDP to pension payouts, more than any other developed country aside from Italy and Greece and twice as much as in the United States.

A recent independent report, however, predicted that the system could be running an annual deficit of $19 billion by 2025 because demographic changes mean fewer workers are paying contributions and more retirees are drawing benefits.

The system is also complicated, incorporating 42 different pension funds with widely differing rules for different professions and a number of 鈥渟pecial regimes鈥� for particular categories of work regarded as especially hard. Railway engine drivers, for example, can retire at 52 with a pension worth 75% of their last salary, although the official retirement age is 62.

The government is planning to introduce a single state-run system, which it says would be fairer, and to encourage people to work a year or two longer so as to balance the books. President Macron vowed to 鈥渃arry the reform through to the end鈥� in his New Year address to the nation.

But the ham-fisted job the government has made of explaining the reform has fed fears of subterfuge and accusations that its hidden purpose is simply to make people work longer for a smaller pension.

鈥淎ll the polls show that the French have very deep questions and worries about this reform,鈥� says Dr. Cautr猫s.

And their worries are broader, suggests Professor Perrineau, one of five public figures invited by President Macron to oversee a 鈥済reat debate鈥� last year designed to let citizens express their frustrations and their opinions. As聽President Macron has sought to modernize the country鈥檚 economy, 鈥減eople see what reforms take away from them, but not what they might bring,鈥澛燩rofessor Perrineau says.

Some of that attitude is revealed in explanations given for strike funds launched by unions and private citizens. At Christmas, a group of actors, writers, and intellectuals called for contributions to support strikers 鈥渄efending one of our common goods, a pension system ... that is the fruit of our elders鈥� struggles.鈥� Such drives are reported to have garnered nearly $2 million.

At the same time, Professor Perrineau adds, 鈥淭he French make it clear what they reject 鈥� the technocratic style of an arrogant administration. But it鈥檚 hard to see what they propose as an alternative. It is the politicization of the negative.鈥�

A gap in trust

Underlying that attitude is a deep mistrust of the establishment, revealed in the annual Political Trust Barometer. Last year鈥檚 survey found that 73% of the French had little or no trust in their elected representatives in parliament, and that 70% do not believe French democracy is working well.

Only 27% put any faith in trade unions, and a paltry 9% trust the country鈥檚 political parties. Those kinds of numbers explain why the Economist Intelligence Unit last year ranked the quality of democracy in France only 16th among 20 Western European nations.

This year鈥檚 barometer, due to be published later this month, will find trust levels falling even further, predicts Dr. Cautr猫s. 鈥淚 see nothing that would change the trend.鈥�

The weakness of such intermediary bodies as trade unions (only 11% of French workers are unionized, scarcely more than in the United States) dates back to the French revolution, whose ban on guilds and professional associations remains 鈥渟ubconsciously in the French mind鈥� even though it was lifted in the late 19th century, and unions flourished after World War II, says Professor Perrineau.

Political parties have fallen in the public estimation more recently, he says. Having elected a right-wing president in Nicolas Sarkozy, a left-wing one in Fran莽ois Hollande and a 鈥渘either-left-nor-right鈥� candidate at the head of a brand new party in Emmanuel Macron, 鈥渧oters have not seen their situation improve,鈥� says Professor Perrineau. 鈥淪o they are angry, and they just reject everything.鈥�

On a continent where dissatisfaction with traditional elites is widespread, France could be the canary in the coal mine, he warns. 鈥淯nless our political leaders can make sense of the changes that globalization has brought,鈥� he says, 鈥渢hey are going to be in very deep trouble.鈥�