海角大神

Two British staffers and one confused American staffer talk Brexit in a group message 鈥� again.

Rebecca Asoulin聽(engagement editor, American): March 29 felt a bit like Y2K. We thought something catastrophic might happen. But nothing happened. Why didn鈥檛 the United Kingdom leave the European Union last week?

Simon Montlake聽(Brexit reporter, Brit): The easy answer is that the U.K. couldn鈥檛 agree on exit terms with the EU and had to go back and ask for more time, which was a big climbdown for Prime Minister Theresa May after two years of saying that March 29 was exit day.聽The delay聽means that the can has been kicked down the road, as Peter predicted last time, right?

Peter Ford聽(senior global correspondent, Brit): Well, I thought there wouldn鈥檛 be a solution, but I did not appreciate the full extent of the mess the U.K. would be in now.

Rebecca: What do you mean by that? How is it a bigger mess now?

Peter: The British government is no further forward than it was the last time we had this conversation, but now there are only 10 days till the new deadline, April 12. And the choices are the same as ever: (1) Ms. May鈥檚 deal, (2) a second referendum on Brexit, (3) a national election, or (4) a no-deal Brexit. It鈥檚 the same mess with less time to sort it out.

Simon: On the plus side, we have eliminated some unicorns.

Rebecca: Which ones?

Simon: If you remember the drama over Ireland and the dreaded backstop, there was a unicorn lurking in the wings. Conservative pro-Brexit Members of Parliament demanded that Ms. May go back to the EU and find 鈥渁lternative arrangements鈥� to keep the border open after Britain leaves. Turns out that there are no magical alternatives. So we slayed that particular unicorn. Unfortunately the same pro-Brexit MPs are gunning for a no-deal exit and might feel that time is on their side. What do you think, Peter?

Peter: Those who want a hard Brexit with no deal are rubbing their hands with glee each time the clock strikes midnight. Another day closer to the exit, another day with no agreement on a practical alternative.

Rebecca: But the majority of MPs want to leave in an orderly fashion, right? I mean they鈥檙e British!

Simon: Yes. Parliament has voted emphatically against a chaotic exit. But what Parliament can鈥檛 agree on is what kind of exit it wants, so the legal default (a no-deal Brexit) is arguably the least popular option. Perplexing, isn鈥檛 it?

It鈥檚 as if a military strategist dreamed up a new version of game theory and wanted to see how it would work in an actual democracy.

Peter: But MPs and the government are playing games with the country鈥檚 future and it is not funny anymore.

Simon: European leaders aren鈥檛 laughing. They might be weeping with frustration.

Peter: They are indeed. The head of the European Commission called David Cameron, the former prime minister who started the whole thing by calling the Brexit referendum, 鈥渙ne of the great destroyers of modern times鈥� yesterday evening.

Simon: A side note 鈥� I was at a discussion at Harvard yesterday where a speaker mistakenly referred to James Cameron. James Cameron was the director of the film 鈥淭itanic.鈥� Which seems terribly apposite at the moment. Are MPs in Parliament rearranging the deck chairs and willing the iceberg to move?

Peter: Seems to me they are just pretending the iceberg isn鈥檛 there. The public have been fed up with government handling of Brexit for some time. Now they are getting increasingly fed up with Parliament and its inability to agree on anything.

Parliamentarians have proved very bad at politics. None of them are showing any readiness to compromise on their maximalist positions. We are getting dangerously close to a situation where a lot of voters are going to be in a 鈥渨hat鈥檚 the point of politicians?鈥� mood, and that will give demagogues a field day.

Simon: Do we need to talk about the extraordinary takeover of Parliament by its members?

Peter: Briefly ...

厂颈尘辞苍:听In a parliamentary system, the government controls the business of the legislature. What bills are discussed, motions tabled, etc.聽

Last week there was a cross-party takeover of this process. And that鈥檚 how we ended up with the last two days of voting on alternatives to Ms. May鈥檚 Brexit deal.

Imagine if junior representatives from both parties in Congress had seized the gavel from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and said, 鈥淥K, let鈥檚 pass some major legislation.鈥�

It was a remarkable twist in the story, and frankly a necessary effort to force change on Ms. May鈥檚 government. Since she has no Plan B.

Peter: Except that they have signally failed to pass major legislation. Still no majority in favor of anything.

搁别产别肠肠补:听So what happens next? Britain seems to be getting lost deeper in the weeds as it tries to untangle itself. Is the future more uncertain now than when we talked before?聽(How is that possible!)

笔别迟别谤:听Crystal ball time, Simon....

Simon: My crystal ball is cloudy. The lights went out!

笔别迟别谤:听The future is no more uncertain, but that is becoming increasingly urgent. Urgent uncertainty. Does that get us anywhere?

厂颈尘辞苍:听Let鈥檚 remember that Ms. May still thinks she can get her deal approved by Parliament.聽

搁别产别肠肠补:听(But it鈥檚 failed three times!)

Simon:聽It鈥檚 hard to see how Ms. May succeeds. She already played her trump card by offering to step down as leader if the deal passes. And that still didn鈥檛 get her a majority.

Can she really get a majority after three failures? Hard to imagine. Even if she did there are many legislative steps to go, and a shaky coalition is easily undone. So the EU might conclude that she鈥檚 simply unable to deliver Brexit in its current form.聽

笔别迟别谤:听One reason Brexit is so hard to agree on is that the country and its political class are divided so equally and so ambiguously: 52-48 to leave at the referendum, and now 53-47 to remain, according to polls.聽

搁别产别肠肠补:听So you two think Ms. May鈥檚 deal as it is won鈥檛 pass. What does that leave?

Simon:聽I expect the U.K. will ask for another extension next week at an emergency EU summit.

The question is, what will U.K. say is the reason for the extension? To hold an election to break the deadlock? Or a referendum on whether to Brexit or not?

It鈥檚 not enough to say, 鈥淲ell, we still can鈥檛 make up our minds. Sorry.鈥� That won鈥檛 cut it.聽

Peter:聽I鈥檒l stick my head out.聽I think there will be an election, which will be fought almost entirely on the Brexit issue, (so it will in effect be a referendum).聽

The whole system of government is in danger of seizing up, unable to reach a decision on the most important question before it in more than 50 years. The government might simply collapse.

搁别产别肠肠补:听I started this conversation thinking something catastrophic had been avoided on March 29. But has it just been delayed unless the British Parliament can correct course? Do you two have any final thoughts?

笔别迟别谤:听My thought is that I am looking forward to the day when I do not have to think any longer about Brexit. But to be frank, I am not certain when that day will dawn.

Simon:聽I expect to be back in the U.K. covering an election sooner than expected.聽

My big surprise when I was reporting in London last time is that while there is animosity toward the EU for striking a hard bargain, the biggest blame seems to be directed at British politicians on the other side of the negotiations. So perhaps some introspection will serve to lighten the difficult path ahead!

搁别产别肠肠补:听This potential election seems to me almost like the last Boston Marathon 鈥撀爐he weather was so terrible that the winners were completely unexpected.

笔别迟别谤:听My kind of marathon....

Rebecca: Perhaps there are some obscure MPs and parties who will end up taking power.

Thank you both for taking time again to talk!

笔别迟别谤:听I鈥檝e enjoyed it. And I am confident that another occasion to ruminate on Brexit will soon present itself.聽

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Editor鈥檚 note:聽After this conversation was held, Ms. May said the U.K. would seek to extend the deadline for leaving the EU from April 12 to May 22. She聽announced cross-party talks to find a compromise to break the deadlock.