海角大神

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and began acting aggressively toward its immediate neighbors, perhaps none of the countries in the Nordic and Baltic region was more taken aback than neutral, pacifistic Sweden.

After the end of the cold war, by 2004 Sweden had radically downsized its armed forces, adjusting their traditional territorial defense role in order to focus on select expeditionary missions. But 鈥淩ussia鈥檚 provocative behavior towards Sweden and in the Baltic Sea ended the Swedish 鈥榮trategic time-out鈥� in which the military鈥檚 role in society was hidden,鈥� says Oscar Jonsson, the incoming director of Stockholm Free World Forum, a leading Swedish security think tank.

Since then, Sweden has worked to gear up its defense against Russia by various means, including the reintroduction of conscription and bringing military preparedness back into the public mindset, for example by circulating a pamphlet instructing the population about what to do in case of war.

However, as the country waits to see what kind of government emerges from September鈥檚 inconclusive parliamentary election, some say that it still is not doing enough.

鈥淪weden has been quick to react to Russia鈥檚 aggressive behavior in Europe as well as in our neighborhood,鈥� says Robert Dalsj枚, deputy director for research of FOI, another Swedish defense think tank. 鈥淭he country is definitely more aware of the potential threat that Russia poses.... But awareness doesn鈥檛 necessarily translate into readiness.鈥�

The principal reason why Swedes are more reluctant to go to battle stations than their neighbors,听Mr. Dalsj枚 and other experts say, is that after two centuries of peace they are less conditioned to do so. As Dalsj枚 puts it, 鈥淪wedish neutrality dies hard.鈥�

Enough money or troops? 听听

That is not to gainsay the significant steps the government has taken to get the country up to speed militarily.

The first came in 2015 when the Social Democratic-led government proposed and the Swedish parliament approved an increase in defense spending of $1.1 billion, or 11 percent for the 2016-20 period.

Then last May the Swedish government issued a pamphlet to all 4.8 million Swedish households illuminating the dangers of war, including 鈥� implicitly 鈥� war with Russia. The booklet, titled 鈥淚f Crisis or War Comes,鈥� compiled by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, instructed the population on what to do 鈥渋f their everyday [lives] were turned upside down.鈥� That attracted considerable attention.

So did the government鈥檚 decision to reinstitute conscription. Sweden had had mandatory military service since 1901 before deciding to abolish it in favor of an all-volunteer system in 2010. Other European countries have also been debating a draft or the requirement of national service.听

鈥淭he all-volunteer recruitment hasn鈥檛 provided the armed forces with enough personnel,鈥� stated Peter Hultqvist, the defense minister, by way of explaining the return of the draft last year. 鈥淭he reactivation of conscription is necessary for military readiness.鈥� According to Mr. Hultqvist, the new system would take in 4,000 conscripts in 2018 from the larger eligible cohort of 100,000 Swedish men and women born in 1999.

Even with conscription, the total number of full-time active military personnel, both volunteers and conscripts, in the Swedish armed forces is about 22,500 鈥� fractionally more than that of neighboring Denmark, which is one-tenth of Sweden鈥檚 size. 鈥淭he force structure needs to be doubled 鈥� at least,鈥� says Dalsj枚. 鈥淎nd we need to be spending 2 percent of our GDP on defense.鈥� It appears that neither of those things will happen soon.

鈥淯nfortunately, attitudes aren鈥檛 changing fast enough,鈥� Mr. Jonsson agrees. 鈥淒efense and security questions are still not a priority with politicians and the public.鈥� Immigration was the leading topic during the most recent election for parliament in September. Defense was considerably down the list.

NATO, or not

Some of the public鈥檚 lack of concern may be due to a conviction that 鈥渢hat if Sweden is attacked, others will come to our aid,鈥� says Dalsj枚. Like neighboring Finland, Sweden is a member of NATO鈥檚 Partnership for Peace program, but is not a full member of the alliance. Nevertheless a recent survey shows that 46 percent of ordinary Swedes feel that NATO would still come to the country鈥檚 assistance. Recent polls indicate that just under half of the Swedish population favors joining NATO, while the rest are opposed or undecided.

Polling also suggests that Sweden鈥檚 attitude toward defense is split among the generations, with under-25s less concerned about war, while middle-aged and elderly Swedes are more anxious.

鈥淵oung people have not been confronted with an existential threat to themselves or to Sweden, except for a few terrorist attacks,鈥� says Mikael Holmstr枚m, security correspondent for Dagens Nyheter, a leading Stockholm daily. 鈥淏y contrast the older generations remember the time when Sweden still had a large army and almost every man and also many women had mobilization orders.鈥�

鈥淧eople my age 鈥� 25 or under 鈥� are more concerned about defense and security than they were before Crimea,鈥� according to Carl Larsson, who works at the Hotel Skeppsholmen on the beatific island of Skeppsholmen in the Stockholm archipelago. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 more a matter of degree than of kind. Most young Swedes still look out at the world as if they were living on an island 鈥� like this one.鈥�

Sweden鈥檚 conflicted attitude about defense is reflected by the conflicted attitude of the outgoing government of Prime Minister Stefan L枚fven. Defense Minister Hultqvist urges more money to be allocated to defense, but the minister of finance, Magdalena Andersson, has rebuffed his requests. At the same time, Hultqvist remains opposed to joining NATO, like Ms. Andersson and their other cabinet colleagues.

Whether the government that emerges from Sweden鈥檚 current electoral quagmire is less conflicted on defense matters remains to be seen.

Jonsson for one, remains worried. 鈥淭he opposition parties have vowed to work towards bringing defense spending up to 2 percent of the GDP鈥澨�鈥� or about double the current rate听鈥� 鈥渂ut given the 10-year lag it takes to get from investment to capability, that is not enough.鈥�

鈥淪weden is sobering up from its dream of eternal peace,鈥� says Dalsj枚.

A soldier鈥檚 perspective

In the meantime, the revamped conscription system seems to be working well. 鈥淭hese are early days of course,鈥� says Col. Jan Demarkesse, who heads the armed forces鈥� Department of Personnel and Manpower. 鈥淗owever our initial impression is that things are going smoothly.鈥�

That impression was reinforced by Linus Thunholm, one of the 19-year-olds in the first class of draftees. 鈥淥f course, it was a little strange to be one of only 4,000 who were called up from my cohort,鈥� says Mr. Thunholm, who is now stationed at an airfield in western Sweden. 鈥淣evertheless, I am very happy with the way things are going. I have made friends in my platoon and our officers are nice.鈥�

Thunholm adds that the experience has altered his perspective on life, as well as geopolitics. 鈥淏efore being conscripted, like most of my peers I was afraid to look out at the larger world. Now I鈥檓 not. I realize that the threat is real. And I am proud to be amongst the few 鈥� perhaps too few 鈥� to have been called to meet it.鈥�

鈥淎lso,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢he food is good.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note:听This听story was changed to reflect the correct title of the听Swedish government's pamphlet,听鈥淚f Crisis or War Comes.鈥�