Russia chalks up Trump-Putin summit as success. But is there a hidden cost?
For all the backlash in the US to President Trump's comments in Helsinki, there are pressing issues that Moscow and Washington need to discuss. And the Kremlin was very happy with how the summit addressed them.
For all the backlash in the US to President Trump's comments in Helsinki, there are pressing issues that Moscow and Washington need to discuss. And the Kremlin was very happy with how the summit addressed them.
The Helsinki summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin might as well have been two different events held on separate planets, to judge by the overwhelming media and establishment reactions in the United States and Russia.
The Russians went into the meeting hoping to arrest the death spiral in bilateral relations over the past couple of years. They came away very pleased with the upbeat tone struck between the two presidents and the real, if modest, pledges to restore dialogue on a variety of critical issues, ranging from nuclear arms control to a political settlement for Syria. Tuesday morning鈥檚 headline in the government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta reflected a high level of official satisfaction: 鈥淭rump: Putin looked strong in Helsinki.鈥
On the other side of the Atlantic, the mood expressed in major newspapers seemed one of near despair over Mr. Trump鈥檚 perceived kowtowing to Mr. Putin, and refusal Monday to support the US intelligence community鈥檚 findings that Russia interfered in the 2016 election on Trump鈥檚 behalf. 鈥淲hy Won鈥檛 Donald Trump Speak for America?鈥 asked The New York Times in an angry editorial that accused the US president of being 鈥渟ingularly naive, or deliberately ignorant鈥 in failing to call Russia to account for its alleged wrongdoing. (On Tuesday, back in Washington, Trump claimed he misspoke, and that he accepts the conclusion that interference took place.)
Remarkably, there is little indication that most leading Russian commentators take seriously the storm of anti-Trump outrage in the US. Nor are they concerned that it might drown out any actual progress made during the two-hour Trump-Putin t锚te-脿-t锚te in Helsinki. Most Russians greet the allegation that Putin controls Trump with derision. And while they wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if the Kremlin did attempt to meddle in the 2016 election, they don鈥檛 believe that it was Russian efforts that put Trump in the White House.
But a few Russian experts, people with extensive contacts in the US, say they are worried. They say their American friends have never before expressed such unalloyed fury at Russia and blanket rejection of anything Putin says. The danger, they fear, is that anything Putin and Trump cook up together will be tainted and unacceptable to many Americans.
鈥淚f we were living through normal times, we would be justified in seeing Helsinki as a moderately successful summit,鈥 says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the foreign policy journal Russia in Global Affairs. 鈥淏ut these are anything but normal times. These days, issues of strategic policy are subordinated to domestic affairs, and any achievements can be derailed by the kind of angry, hostile reactions we are seeing鈥 in the US.
鈥淭rump certainly made a mistake by failing to seriously address the meddling issue that Americans are so preoccupied with. He even seemed to be taking sides with Putin,鈥 Mr. Lukyanov says. 鈥淢any people in Moscow appear pleased at how good Putin looked in Helsinki, and may not be aware of the risk that it may have been completely counterproductive鈥 to Russian long-term hopes of rebooting the relationship.
Pressing topics amid the politics
While no formal agreements were made or documents signed in Helsinki, the two leaders committed to re-establishing channels of communication that have been largely shut down amid the acrimony of recent months. They also agreed to look into extending the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty. Otherwise, if the treaty expires on schedule in just three years, it will leave the two superpowers with no negotiated framework of strategic arms control for the first time in over four decades.
Trump seemed to endorse a deal for a Syria endgame, initiated last week between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which would see Bashar al-Assad remain in power and Russia exercise its influence to limit Iranian military deployments near Israel鈥檚 border with Syria.
鈥淥ne thing we think was very significant is that Putin, for the first time, publicly spoke about Israeli security as a goal of Russian policy,鈥 says Lukyanov. 鈥淎mericans should join this deal, and it would be a shame if it got ruined by the toxic political atmosphere surrounding Trump.鈥
Masha Lipman, editor of Counterpoint, a political journal published by George Washington University, says she worries that Trump may not be the only one in the US making bad decisions amid the present political turmoil.
鈥淚 know many Americans are seized with a desire to punish Putin and get Trump,鈥 says Ms. Lipman, who had a regular column about Russian affairs in The Washington Post for 10 years.
鈥淭his may be in tune with their emotions, but it is not good politics. Trump鈥檚 critics are looking at the summit as just another occasion to go after him, to roast him over the allegations of Russian meddling, but they should stop at attacking the process itself. Look, nothing bad happened at the summit,鈥 she says.
鈥淎mericans are angry at Trump for something he cannot possibly deliver. He isn鈥檛 able to make Putin confess about election meddling. Putin will just deny it, as he has many times before. Are we saying that it鈥檚 impossible to move beyond that, to discuss things that urgently need to be talked about between the US and Russia?鈥
'Russia needs to get smarter'
Putin鈥檚 apparent complacency about his summit success, and the general feeling in Moscow that Trump must have prevailed over his domestic opponents, may be due to a lack of understanding in the Kremlin of how the US system works, says Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the Foreign Ministry.
鈥淧utin is the ultimate leader in Russia. His word is final,鈥 he says. 鈥淗e tends to project that on other leaders he meets, which is why he does very well with authoritarian leaders, who have similar weight within their own political systems. It is difficult for him to see that the US system doesn鈥檛 work this way,鈥 and that anything Trump decides might get canceled out amid public outcry and congressional push-back.
Russia policy risks becoming a long-term casualty of Trump鈥檚 domestic battles, he says.
鈥淩ussia needs to get smarter, and diversify its outreach to various segments of the American establishment. We should be talking to the Democrats, Congress, think tanks, and others, explaining ourselves and forming relationships. It鈥檚 just not enough to meet the top guy and decide things with him. We urgently need to realize this,鈥 he says.