海角大神

When Matteo Renzi became Italian prime minister in 2014, he was all about youth.

The youngest premier in Italy鈥檚 history, Mr. Renzi was snapped in photos riding his bike or clad in unbuttoned collars and leather coats. The self-labeled 鈥渄emolition man,鈥� he promised to shake Italy鈥檚 gerontocratic and gridlocked political establishment.

But as his greatest moment for reform arrives 鈥� Italians vote Sunday on a constitutional referendum intended to reshape the way government works 鈥� it is precisely the young Italians who have abandoned his vision of renewal.

鈥淲e had lots of hopes when he came to office,鈥� says Rebecca Silvagni, a student at Sapienza University of Rome who plans to vote 鈥渘o.鈥� 鈥淩enzi is the establishment, the reforms strengthen the establishment, and a no vote is anti-establishment.鈥�

Dissident fervor is growing on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US and swaths of Europe, it has buoyed the far right, with the next test Austria鈥檚 presidential elections Sunday. Much of that has been driven by older voters, left behind by globalization or rejecting the changes immigration has brought to societies.

In southern Europe, where youth unemployment remains crippling high, the populist surge has been propped up by the younger generation, with Italy鈥檚 Five Star Movement 鈥� a leftist, anti-establishment movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo 鈥� rocking the political landscape. That has resulted in Renzi looking exactly like the mainstream politician he dismissed at the outset of his premiership. It鈥檚 also leaving his constitutional reform efforts, and his career, on the line.

鈥淚t is only the oldest voters who have a preference for 鈥榊es,鈥欌�� says Luca Comodo, the director at the polling firm Ipsos in Italy. 鈥淩enzi is now considered a representative of the system. He lost his capacity to be a reformer.... So paradoxically, it seems almost absurd, the idea for change is now to vote 鈥榥o鈥� to change.鈥�

Forgotten generations?

According to an October survey by Doxa, a market research firm, 鈥淣o鈥� is ahead by 5 points, but among those under 35, 鈥淣o鈥� wins by 13 points, compared to 鈥淵es鈥� ahead by 9 points for those over 55. Up to a quarter of voters were still undecided before a mid-November blackout on polls.

The constitutional reform itself would, among other moves, reduce the number of seats in the upper house of parliament and take away some power from the regions. Both are touted as efforts to make it easier to pass laws in Italy, infamous for political stagnation.

Leonardo Tripelli, a young activist on the side of 鈥淵es,鈥� believes Renzi鈥檚 reform is the way to boost faith in failed politics. 鈥淭he political class is the fruit of the current system, so by changing the system it will be easier to change the political class,鈥� he says.

But the mood at his university points to an unpredictable Sunday. Sapienza University was built in Benito Mussolini鈥檚 time, with brutalist-style architecture. Many buildings are plastered with handwritten posters in red and black ink calling to 鈥渟end Renzi home.鈥�

Margharita Benvenuti, a chemistry student, says 鈥淵es鈥� would change little in her daily life. 鈥淭he reforms would break the old system to an extent, but they don鈥檛 reflect the people鈥檚 interests but the interests of the elite,鈥� she says.

Young people鈥檚 dismissal of Renzi as part of the establishment has many roots. While the prime minister did foster youthful leaders in his own party and brought women to his government, his reform package hasn鈥檛 solved the biggest problem of all: that young people can鈥檛 find jobs. And that has impacted their parents, the strongest 鈥淣o鈥� supporters, according to Doxa, who are supporting them at home while their mortgages aren鈥檛 paid off or their own jobs at risk.

Daniele Albertazzi, a senior lecturer in European politics at the University of Birmingham, puts it this way. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just the 鈥榶oung鈥� in the English or American sense, 20-year-olds, but I mean even young in the Italian sense, [those] between 10 and 40 years old. There are at least two or three generations that have really been forgotten.鈥�

Renzi was also the victim of timing, perhaps taking over the country too early, before he sealed his credentials as a reformer. And the Five Star Movement surged alongside him, giving younger people a more radical alternative for change.

鈥淭here is no doubt people want politics to cost less money, and they would be happy if there were much fewer MPs in power,鈥� says Mr. Albertazzi. But Italians have lost trust that this referendum is the best, or only, way to effect those changes.

Some are also worried about the content, that it reduces the checks and balances to avoid the emergence of a 鈥渟trongman.鈥� But most of all, Italians are voting against Renzi, who, like former Prime Minister David Cameron in Britain, said he will step down if he loses. This is seen by many as a tactical error intended to shore up his own legitimacy, and it very well may backfire.

Seeking better change

The combination of financial instability, as a banking crisis looms that could threaten Italy's eurozone membership, and political uncertainty in Europe鈥檚 fourth largest economy, has all eyes on Italy.

The big institutions and political heavyweights have come out in favor of 鈥淵es.鈥� But that might not shift opinions.

鈥淧eople say, I have no confidence in banks or the economic institutions that contributed to the [financial] crisis, why should I listen to them now?鈥� says Mr. Comodo, the pollster.

At the same, time, the era of political uncertainty, and Donald Trump鈥檚 election in the US, could be an asset for Renzi, especially among his oldest supporters, says Piero Ignazi, a political science professor at the University of Bologna. 鈥淸Renzi] can say, 鈥榳e can step forward with renewal but we don鈥檛 risk anything, we don鈥檛 risk any chaos or instability,鈥欌�� he says.

But he suspects it won鈥檛 make younger people budge, which poses a problem for Renzi, and Italy, even if he is successful Sunday.

鈥淭hat is a problem for the future, of course, if you don鈥檛 have support of young people,鈥� he says, 鈥渘ot only in the long run but also in short and medium term.鈥�

Young people have had little success at the ballot box in Europe 鈥� they backed "Remain" in Brexit, for example, and Spain鈥檚 left-wing Podemos ultimately failed to oust the ruling conservative party from power. Many hope that in Italy Sunday, the youth vote prevails 鈥� and precipitates major change.

Filippo Barone, a third-year politics student voting 鈥淣o,鈥� was hunched over his laptop by a window in the corner of a smoky students鈥� study room on a recent day, a blue woolen scarf wrapped around his neck. He says his 鈥淣o鈥� is an attempt to change the status quo, but it doesn鈥檛 end there.

鈥� I hope my 鈥楴o鈥� vote will lead to new proposals,鈥� he says, and 鈥減rovide the basis for a better reform.鈥�

鈥� Sara Miller Llana reported from Paris.