海角大神

When President Fran莽ois Hollande told the French parliament, days after terrorists killed 130 diners and concertgoers听here that 鈥淔rance is at war,鈥澨齢e set a new听bellicose听tone for an entire continent that听is feeling the creep of conflict听on its doorstep.

After years of military cuts and an inward gaze as conflicts raged abroad, Europe is now showing signs听of a shift toward a war footing. The confluence of homegrown terrorism, a rush of refugees fleeing Middle East conflicts, and Russia鈥檚 military offensive in Ukraine has lent a sense of urgency to a political debate about听Europe鈥檚 role in safeguarding the relative peace that prevailed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Today, Britain鈥檚 Parliament is听holding an all-day debate听on whether to approve air strikes against Islamic State in Syria. The German cabinet approved plans Tuesday听to commit 1,200 soldiers听and six Tornado reconnaissance jets听to the听US-led听coalition fighting IS in Syria;听German lawmakers are expected to approve听the proposal听by the end of the week.听The non-combat mission would become Germany鈥檚 largest military deployment since its troops joined NATO鈥檚 Afghan mission.

France鈥檚听Mr. Hollande is now widely viewed听here听as a wartime president 鈥� dubbed Fran莽ois 鈥淗omeland鈥� 鈥� while his country rallies around him in a surge of patriotism of the kind the US saw after 911. France has already deployed its warplanes to bomb Raqqa, the headquarters of the self-declared Islamic State, the terrorist group behind the Nov. 13 attacks. And it froze planned military budget cuts, which means that for the first time in decades troop levels are set to rise.

This has all happened as countries in the eastern part of the EU听that were formerly under the Soviet yoke are ramping up defense spending in the wake of Russia鈥檚听2014 annexation of Crimea. Some like Lithuania even moved to reinstate a draft.

鈥淲hat has happened in the last two years or so is the idea that security issues matter, and that security issues will come find you whether you want it or not,鈥� says James Strong,听a fellow in foreign policy analysis at the London School of Economics. 鈥淭he Russian incursion into Ukraine and the Syria crisis together has concentrated minds somewhat.鈥�

A British turnaround

British Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to win the vote later today, and if he does, air strikes听in Syria听could begin within days.听

That will mark a turnaround for Britain. Although the country sent warplanes to bomb听IS in Iraq,听lawmakers voted in 2013 not to do so in Syria,听after the regime in Damascus used chemical weapons against rebels. Today鈥檚 parliamentary motion is drawn more narrowly and frames the proposed air strikes on IS as part of a broader strategy that includes political and humanitarian aspects.听

Charles Lichfield, an analyst at Eurasia Group in London, says he believes Cameron is seizing an opportunity for his country鈥檚 reengagement听in Syria.听鈥淵ou have a temporary window that Cameron is using to reassert the UK鈥檚 role in the world,鈥� he says.

While Germany will not join air strikes or commit to troops in combat,听its willingness to deploy its military in support of the US-led campaign packs a symbolic punch for a nation deeply scarred by, and suspicious of, militarism. German Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoys broad political support, except from the Green and Left parties, to听send troops to the Middle East, even if society remains cautious.

Matthias M眉ller-Krey, a corporate speechwriter听in Berlin, says he, for one, has conflicting feelings. 鈥淎s Germans we are hesitant to go to war for historical reasons, sometimes too hesitant,鈥� he says.听鈥淧art of me thinks that someone has to do something, but I thought the same about Afghanistan and that intervention didn't have much of an effect.鈥� Everyone wants to stop terror but no one knows the right way it can be achieved.鈥�

Still, German听opinion may be shifting in favor of听military intervention because both the attacks in Paris and the refugee crisis 颅鈥撎鼼ermany has taken in nearly 1 million refugees and goaded other countries to reciprocate 鈥撎齢ave听spun the political wheel. 鈥淕ermany has lived under the illusion for a long time that stuff in the Middle East or Sub-Saharan Africa doesn鈥檛 really affect it, and now it does,鈥澨齭ays听Thomas Risse, professor of international relations at the Free University of Berlin. 鈥淪o in that sense German foreign policy and German domestic politics are now really intermingled.鈥�

Cuts in defense spending

Nowhere is this intermingling stronger than in France, which has been struck by two attacks this year. France spends $33 billion a year on its armed forces, the second-largest military budget in Europe after Britain. Still, France has steadily cut its expenditure on defense since the end of the cold war. Indeed, among NATO members in Europe, only Britain, Greece, and Estonia have been meeting the alliance鈥檚 benchmark of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense.

Following the Nov. 13 attacks, France鈥檚 Ministry of Defense website in charge of recruitment saw the average number of requests for contact triple from 500 to 1,500 per day.听The military is expecting applications to rise in 2016 to 170,000, compared with 120,000 in 2014.听

Major R茅my H茅mez, a defense analyst and active member in the French Army, notes that external operations like France鈥檚 2013 intervention in Mali aren鈥檛 the main draw. 鈥淚t鈥檚 more so the threat of something closer to home that motivates them the most,鈥� he says.

脡lie Tenenbaum, a research fellow at IFRI in Paris, says it鈥檚 the first time since听1982 that France鈥檚 operational forces are set to grow,听from 66,000 personnel in 2013 to an expected 77,000 by 2017.

Solidarity and challenges

France last month invoked an article of a EU treaty for its first time calling members to its side to fight the terrorist threat in France. 鈥淭his can potentially open a new chapter for Europeans,鈥澨齭ays听Joerg Forbrig, transatlantic fellow for Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin.听鈥淚t may well be a step in the direction of a much closer security cooperation than we have seen so far.鈥�

This adds to solidarity, though fraught, in the EU鈥檚 response to Russia.听鈥淓urope managed to have a synchronized response to Russia鈥檚 incursion in Ukraine that could qualify as hawkish,鈥� Mr. Lichfield says. 鈥淔or once they had a unified foreign policy.鈥澨�

Still, challenges are strewn across the road ahead. However much France wants to fight back,听鈥淔rance won鈥檛 turn into a huge military power overnight,鈥� says Mr. Tenenbaum.听

And although Europe鈥檚 reaction to terrorism is strong, its entry into the Syrian conflict raises new risks. British and French militaries would be operating in contested airspace with competing interests and unclear political goals. Such challenges could quickly听sour public opinion.

鈥淚n the fog of war and with the emotion of what happened in Paris, all of these inconsistencies are being [glossed over],鈥� says Lichfield, 鈥渂ut I think they will come back.鈥�

*Rachel Stern in Berlin, Colette Davidson in Paris, and Alexis Xydias in London contributed to this report.

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