海角大神

When Susan Robertson, a young Scottish聽mother in Glasgow, looks at the child-care options in front of her, she doesn鈥檛 see a lot of choice.

Parents in the United Kingdom face some of the highest costs for care in Europe. In neighboring nations, by contrast, full-day, state-funded preschool is the norm.

But in an independent聽Scotland, about which Scots will vote in a referendum next week, women's options would expand, says Ms. Robertson, a working mother and founder of 鈥淢ums for Change.鈥� More broadly, she argues, the ruling Scottish聽National Party (SNP) will refashion Scotland聽as a more caring social democracy on the Scandinavian model, free from Westminster's conservative policies.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 not naive, I know we would not wake up on聽Sept. 19聽in Utopia,鈥� says Robertson, her red Converse tennis shoes jumping as she bounces her 8-month-old on her lap at a Glasgow cafe.聽 鈥淏ut Westminster has very different priorities than聽Scotland.鈥�

Whether Scottish women will agree with her or not at the polls will play a defining role in the outcome聽Sept. 18. Women interviewed by the Monitor say that what they care most about is not notions of independent statehood but whether their lives will be better, their bank accounts bigger, and their children鈥檚 prospects brighter. It's a theme of caution that academics and pollsters have been registering since the beginning of the campaign.聽

"I think when you鈥檝e got an axis of risk versus聽caution, men are that much more likely to go for the risky choice, and women more likely to go for the cautious聽choice,鈥� says聽Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, a polling firm.

The big question is: Which scenario represents the risky choice?聽Many women originally viewed the independence campaign as a macho endeavor, a point that was underscored by a vast gender gap in voter intentions. But women's attitudes have been shifting. The share of women saying they planned to vote "Yes" surged from 33 percent to 47 percent in a YouGov poll out last weekend 鈥� the same poll that sent out broad shockwaves by giving the 鈥淵es鈥� camp a slight majority for the first time: 51 percent to 49 percent.

Now, however, the numbers have shifted back, with 鈥淣o鈥� in the lead overall and the percentage of women supporting independence dropping to 42 percent. The uncertainty about which way they鈥檒l cast ballots聽next Thursday聽has turned them into the ultimate swing vote.

鈥淏oth men and women have been shifting toward 鈥榊es,鈥� but the shift has been greater amongst women,鈥� says Mr. Kellner.

Three hundred years 鈥� and counting?

The Kingdom of聽Scotland聽and Kingdom of England, once divided by war, have been joined in political union since 1707. But it鈥檚 often been an unhappy marriage, with Scots聽benefiting from union in many ways but also seeing in England an overbearing partner. In recent times, 聽dating from Tory Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's term, 鈥渢here has been a constant political drifting apart,鈥� says Tom Devine, a prizewinning historian in Edinburgh.

The referendum has dominated聽Scottish聽politics for the past year, pitting families against one another and engaging some high-profile advocates. Actor Sean Connery is one well-known Scot who supports independence, while Harry Pottery author J.K. Rowling said, in handing the "Better Together" campaign a $1.7 million donation, that elements of the 鈥淵es鈥� campaign seem 鈥渁 little Death Eaterish.鈥�

SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond鈥檚 bid for independence tugs on centuries-old patriotism here, but its draw in the 21st聽century is about the kind of society Scotland聽aspires to become. Despite a large degree of autonomy 鈥撀燬cotland聽has had its own parliament since 1999 and has long run its own health and education systems 鈥� many聽Scots聽denounce a 鈥渄emocratic deficit.鈥澛燬cottish聽politicians make up only 9 percent of the 650-member House of聽Commons in London. Only one MP from聽Scotland聽is a Conservative.

鈥淭he ethos of [Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron鈥檚 government] seems a million miles away from the zeitgeist of聽Scotland,鈥� says聽John MacDonald, who directs Scottish聽Global Forum, a聽think tank.

With independence, the SNP promises to point聽Scotland聽toward Scandinavia, which tops the charts on everything from gender equality to social justice.聽In a hefty tome called聽Scotland鈥檚 Future, the SNP argues that it must have control of its own budget to take such steps as putting North Sea oil wealth into a fund for future generations or dismantling Britain鈥檚 nuclear arsenal, which sits in聽Scotland.

The realism factor

But if the vision is appealing, the feasibility has long been in doubt. North Sea oil may not be able to fund聽Scotland鈥檚 spending aims indefinitely, and it's not clear if聽Scotland聽can remain in the European Union or NATO. The biggest unknown has been currency: Westminster has said聽Scotland聽cannot continue using the pound if it breaks away.

Such questions have deterred women, who, Kellner argues, are more cautious voters generally. But groups like Mums for Change have been able to turn that message about caution to their advantage. In forums聽across the country, especially geared for the undecided, they explain that a 鈥淵es鈥� vote is the cautious choice, because things will change regardless of the vote. And only an independent聽Scotland聽can promise the right priorities, such as putting 鈥渂airns,鈥� as kids are called in聽Scotland, 鈥渂efore bombs,鈥� referring to the nuclear arsenal, says Robertson.聽

Indeed,聽Scottish聽society already looks a lot more 鈥淪candinavian鈥� than its English counterpart. Here, university fees are free, unlike in England. The Scots聽run their own health service and have no plans to privatize any part of it. They don鈥檛 pay for prescriptions.聽

The SNP has promised to safeguard this way of life, but also improve on the shortcomings. SNP party campaign director Angus聽Robertson聽says that such a society would particularly appeal to women. Britons spend 27 percent of their household income on childcare, compared with the OECD average of 12 percent. In Sweden it鈥檚 5 percent. 鈥淲e鈥檝e looked at how our northern European neighbors have been developing their economy, and supporting women and family life more effectively than is the case in the UK,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been learning from our Scandinavian neighbors.鈥�

SNP's aspirations聽have been dismissed as unrealistic and dishonest by the opposition鈥檚 Better Together campaign.聽Scottish聽Labor Party member Jackie Baillie scoffs at the SNP promise of 鈥淪candinavian welfare and US-style taxation,鈥� she says.聽Scotland, she says, already has control over childcare issues, so the promise of more coverage is simply a ploy to win the female vote, she says.

A clear gender gap still exists, even if it鈥檚 narrowed. More men say they plan to vote yes, and women still characterize 鈥淣o鈥� as the cautious vote. Jo McKnight, a mother of two, says she is a clear 鈥淣o,鈥� as the sticker on her car indicates, while her husband drives around with a 鈥淵es鈥� on his. She says that he is patriotic and a risk-taker by nature 鈥� a former professional rugby player who later started his own company. 鈥淎s a man he is more 鈥榞o for it,鈥� 鈥� she says. 鈥淔or me, I say we have a good life with two young children. I don鈥檛 want to put that on a roulette table.鈥�

For Cori Foreman, voting to stay in the union is a matter of identity.聽鈥淚鈥檓聽Scottish, but I鈥檓 British, too,鈥� Ms. Foreman, a teacher, says as she walks out of a debate on social welfare at the parliament in Edinburgh on a recent day.

Her mother, Christine Baxter, who says she is leaning toward 鈥淵es,鈥� says that she鈥檇 like to take the chance while they have it to 鈥済et away from England and the Tories,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e are a different breed.鈥�

Ms. Foreman looks at her in surprise. 鈥淢other, I was born in England!鈥�

These questions of identity have grown, in part with devolution, which has boosted聽Scottish聽nationalism as well as English nationalism. Until very recently, being British and English, or British and Welsh, or聽Scottish, or Northern Irish, 鈥渉as been seen as the same thing,鈥� says Robert Colls,聽a professor of cultural history at De Montfort University in Leicester, England. 鈥淚t was possible to be both. Just like it is possible to be a proud Texan and a proud American.鈥�

But that鈥檚 changing. 鈥淭oday people recognize there really is a distinction between being English or聽Scottish,鈥� he says.

At the same time, says Mr. Devine, the historian, being聽Scottish聽does not mean being oppressed. Mr. Salmond has referred to English 鈥渟hackles,鈥� but Devine says that, unlike other separatist movements, 鈥渨e are not terribly aggrieved, we are rich. There is no deep sense of bitterness, we are not coerced.鈥� There are no linguistic or religious divides. 鈥淭his is an aspirational nationalism.鈥�

And that is, in many ways, the very thing that has worked against the 鈥淵es鈥� campaign. Elderly voter Eithne Lynch, a Glasgow resident born in Ireland, says that unity has served聽Scotland聽well, especially聽Scottish聽women. 鈥淧eople are generally happy,鈥� she says. 鈥淭heir children and grandchildren are doing well.鈥�

In other words,聽Scotland聽as part of the UK might not be Scandinavia. But it鈥檚 not so bad either.