海角大神

Thailand鈥檚 Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over ethics violations July 1, as a weekslong border spat with Cambodia roils fears of a coup d鈥櫭﹖at.

Whatever the outcome in the weeks ahead 鈥� coup or no coup 鈥� the crisis has bolstered support for Thailand鈥檚 popular military, surfacing deep questions over the army鈥檚 role in one of the world鈥檚 most coup-prone countries. Since 1932, there have been 22 coups in Thailand. Most were bloodless, and 13 succeeded in establishing military rule. The most recent was in 2014, when the army ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn鈥檚 aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. A military junta ruled until 2019, when Thailand transitioned into a 鈥渕ilitary-dominated, semi-elected government,鈥� according to Freedom House. The army maintained considerable political influence until more open and fair elections were held in May 2023.

The current political crisis now threatens to undercut two years of fragile democracy, reinforcing what experts describe as a 鈥渃oup culture鈥� in Thailand.

鈥淭hai democratic institutions have been so systematically weakened that opposition to coups seems futile,鈥� says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, a think tank based in Thailand.聽While the Cambodia conflict is fanning 鈥減atriotism tinged with nationalist feelings,鈥� such feelings are 鈥渘ot to be conflated with support for military intervention in Thai politics,鈥� he adds.

Leaked phone call sparks political crisis

Cambodia and Thailand have always had a contentious relationship, dating back centuries to a time when they were competing empires. In late May, a brief clash at a disputed border area known as the Emerald Triangle (with Laos making up the third part) left one Cambodian soldier dead, and reignited old tensions.

Then, on June 19, Cambodia鈥檚 Senate President Hun Sen posted on his Facebook page a private conversation with Prime Minister Paetongtarn, in which she addressed him warmly as 鈥渦ncle鈥� and criticized a senior Thai officer who had weighed in on the border dispute, saying the officer 鈥渏ust wanted to look cool.鈥� This attempt at back-channel diplomacy backfired, unleashing a fury of frustration in Thailand 鈥� and worries of Coup 23.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn鈥檚 majority coalition immediately began to crumble. Thousands gathered in Bangkok this past Saturday to demand her resignation, as senators petitioned for her suspension. Meanwhile, Thailand鈥檚 army has closed border crossings with Cambodia, as bilateral relations sink to their lowest in a decade.

鈥淭he leak compromised her position and gave the military the upper hand over her government on border management,鈥� says Dr. Thitinan.

Yet even before the leak, a poll by the National Institute of Development Administration, a public educational institution, found that 86% of respondents were confident in the armed forces ability to handle the border crisis, compared with only 31% who reported confidence in the government.

The poll reflects an underlying respect for Thailand鈥檚 military, which benefits from its association with Thailand鈥檚 broadly revered monarchy and views itself as Thailand鈥檚 main line of defense against both foreign threats and internal political instability.

But especially among younger generations, calls for military reform have been growing, says Duncan McCargo, President鈥檚 Chair in Global Affairs at Singapore鈥檚 Nanyang Technological University. 鈥淭here is a big generational divide in Thailand,鈥� he says. 鈥淵ounger voters ... lean towards the [opposition] People鈥檚 Party and are deeply critical of the military and the status quo.鈥�

These frustrations bubbled over in a series of youth-led protests in 2020-2021, which sought the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, an army officer who assumed office during the 2014 coup. The protests, which also called for new elections and broad political reforms, were ultimately quashed by authorities.

National pride 鈥� and a sense of caution

A very different kind of protest unfolded in Bangkok Saturday, when over 6,000 anti-Paetongtarn protestors gathered at Victory Monument, erected in 1941 to honor Thailand鈥檚 victory in the Franco-Thai War, which demarcated the current borders with Cambodia.

Kittipat Phusiri, a young reserve soldier and graduate of Southeast Asia University in Bangkok, showed up to the anti-Paetongtarn rally wearing full Thai World War II regalia. He says all Thai people 鈥渁re ready to support and encourage the military if there is a need," and he believes that everyone should take pride in the military鈥檚 long history of triumphs.

Veteran activist Sondhi Limthongkul struck a more cautious tone, reminding protesters that civilian leadership must be prioritized.

鈥淚f the military wants to do something during a national crisis, go ahead,鈥� said the controversial media tycoon, who is a staunch critic of the prime minister鈥檚 family. 鈥淏ut let the selection of the prime minister involve public participation. ... Do not bring in those generals鈥� to govern.

On Sunday, the opposition People鈥檚 Party went a step further, releasing a statement condemning 鈥渁ny attempt to justify a military coup.鈥�

鈥淲hile political protests are a legitimate form of expression in a democracy, we must not forget the hard lessons of the past 20 years,鈥� it reads. Recent military coups 鈥渘ot only failed to resolve political problems but also exacerbated issues of corruption, judicial distortion, and crony capitalism. ... Let the people decide the country鈥檚 future.鈥�

Seven hours south of Bangkok and less than 100 paces from the southernmost border crossing between Cambodia and Thailand, noodle stand owner See Yisawa doesn鈥檛 have a strong opinion about who governs Thailand. She just wants business to resume.

Tourists used to gather en masse here at the Ban Hat Lek border crossing, before the army suspended all cross-border travel. Now, the streets around her noodle stand have grown quiet, as Thai military personnel politely wave reporters away from taking pictures of the border gates.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 care what they do鈥� in Bangkok or Phnom Penh, she says. 鈥淚 want the border open so I can cook and make money for my family.鈥�

Editor's note: An earlier version of this article misstated the location of the Institute of Security and International Studies. The think tank is based聽in the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand.