海角大神

For Li Qiang, the Trump administration鈥檚 sudden freeze on foreign aid could not have produced a more striking win 鈥� for China.

By cutting off funds for the National Endowment for Democracy, the U.S. government has severely curtailed work by civil society groups such as Mr. Li鈥檚 China Labor Watch (CLW). The New York-based nongovernmental organization has investigated violations of workers鈥� rights in China for 25 years.

鈥淭he U.S. is really battling itself ... and it鈥檚 really helping China,鈥� Mr. Li says, when it weakens groups that have long irritated Beijing by exposing information censored in China.

More broadly, the slashing of U.S. foreign assistance and the aid workforce 鈥� including the Trump administration鈥檚 move Sunday to eliminate 1,600 jobs at the United States Agency for International Development 鈥� represents a boon for China鈥檚 global influence, say activists, experts, and officials.

鈥淯.S. funding has been such an important bulwark for creating [democratic] resilience to Chinese influence,鈥� says Sarah Cook, an independent China expert. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 really a big loss.鈥�

The United States has long bolstered its soft power as the world鈥檚 biggest source of foreign assistance. Before the freeze, USAID provided about $40 billion a year to projects around the world designed to advance democracy, counter authoritarianism, alleviate hunger, and boost health, among other goals.

By retreating from such work, Washington risks leaving a vacuum that China will move to fill. In the longer run, the move could also undermine trust in U.S. leadership, some experts warn.

鈥淐hina goes into the empty spaces, always,鈥� says Mathieu Duch芒tel, director of International Studies at the Institut Montaigne, an independent think tank in Paris. 鈥淭hey will seize the opportunity.鈥�

Mr. Li has already experienced this personally.

When President Donald Trump ordered the foreign aid freeze last month, Mr. Li could no longer pay CLW鈥檚 seven-person staff and had to halt its work. About 90% of CLW鈥檚 $800,000 budget comes from the U.S. government, he says.

Soon, Mr. Li began receiving phone calls from a Chinese official in Beijing, offering to help him to obtain alternative funding. 鈥淭hey contacted me a lot of times,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut I didn鈥檛 respond.鈥� He knew the price for such support: an end to CLW鈥檚 criticism of the Chinese authorities.

U.S. national security

Created in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy, in part to counter the Soviet Union, USAID has also engaged in national security work, says one employee who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. Beyond the agency鈥檚 program to monitor Chinese state-owned enterprise investments worldwide, 鈥淯SAID is intimately involved in ... countering China, Russia, Iran, the DPRK [North Korea], global criminal syndicates, and terrorist cells around the world,鈥� he says.

鈥淭he effort to eliminate USAID is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.鈥�

As China pursues its long-term strategy to displace the U.S. and reshape the world order, the Trump administration鈥檚 retreat from foreign aid gives credence to Beijing鈥檚 narrative: China is stable and benevolent, while Washington is unreliable.

鈥淥ne manifestation of 鈥楢merica First鈥� is the tendency towards neo-isolationism, such as the U.S. no longer being willing to provide military or economic aid,鈥� a top Chinese expert in U.S. affairs told the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post last month.

鈥淐ould that potentially give us more room to maneuver?鈥� wondered Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Africa is one region offering China fresh opportunities.

Last fall, Beijing hosted a China-Africa summit at which Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged that China would contribute $50 billion in loans and investment to boost economic and infrastructure development in Africa over the next three years.

Damage to soft power

While China is unlikely to replace the U.S. aid grants, it may provide new loans, says Deborah Br盲utigam, director of the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University鈥檚 School of Advanced International Studies.

鈥淭he USAID leaving creates a gap for countries to be looking for other ways they can strengthen their economies,鈥� and some will turn to China, says one senior USAID contractor with extensive experience in Africa.

鈥淭hey will say, 鈥楾he West gave up on us,鈥欌�� he says, speaking on condition of anonymity to freely voice his views. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to do an enormous amount of damage to U.S. soft power.鈥�

On Sunday afternoon, USAID employees were among tens of thousands of federal workers who received a government email with the subject line reading 鈥淲hat did you do last week?鈥�

For the aid agency, the email heralded this week鈥檚 massive reduction of the USAID workforce.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not that we are cutting waste, fraud, and abuse 鈥� we are undermining the foundations of the most successful postwar infrastructure ever built,鈥� says one USAID employee. 鈥淭he abandonment of that will cost us dearly, because we will have to claw it back from China later.鈥�

Still, some experts view a silver lining in the current changes, however jarring. The postwar foreign aid system created dependencies in developing countries, and needs reform, says Dr. Br盲utigam. 鈥淢aybe this is a phoenix moment,鈥� she says. 鈥淥ut of the ashes comes something better.鈥�