海角大神

Taiwan鈥檚 new president urged China on Monday to 鈥渇ace reality,鈥� end its military incursions across the Taiwan Strait, and work with the self-governed island 鈥� as equals 鈥� to prevent a war that both sides agree would devastate the world.

鈥淐hina鈥檚 military actions and gray-zone coercion are considered the greatest strategic challenges to global peace and stability,鈥� President Lai Ching-te said in his inaugural address to the nation and visiting dignitaries, soon after he and Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan鈥檚 former envoy to the United States, took their oaths of office.

鈥淚 鈥� want to call on China to stop its political attacks and military threats against Taiwan,鈥� Dr. Lai said, drawing cheers and applause from a large crowd gathered outside the flag-festooned, baroque-style Presidential Office Building in downtown Taipei.

Striking a tone both confident and pragmatic, Dr. Lai reaffirmed his determination to strengthen Taiwan鈥檚 vibrant democracy while maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait 鈥� a delicate balancing act handled deftly by his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. Taiwan鈥檚 first female president, Ms. Tsai served two four-year terms, the maximum allowed by the constitution. Dr. Lai was Taiwan鈥檚 vice president under Ms. Tsai, and his election victory in January marked a historic third term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

An enthusiastic crowd greeted Dr. Lai鈥檚 speech. 鈥淚 can feel his firm attitude 鈥� I like it,鈥� says Wang Shuyun, a Taipei doctor.

鈥淗e gives me a lot of confidence. He鈥檚 pragmatic and he can lead Taiwan into a new situation,鈥� says Weng Weichien, a civil servant, moments after a fly-over by Air Force jets issuing streams of multicolored smoke.

De-facto independent?

Dr. Lai said Taiwan鈥檚 government is ready to hold dialogues and boost cooperation with China 鈥� offering to start by resuming cross-strait tourism, and allowing Chinese students to enroll in universities in Taiwan. 鈥淚 hope that China will face the reality of the Republic of China鈥檚 existence, respect the choices of the people in Taiwan, and in good faith, choose dialogue over confrontation,鈥� Dr. Lai said.

But he also warned Taiwan鈥檚 23 million citizens that in pursuing peace with China, they 鈥渕ust not harbor any delusions鈥� about Beijing鈥檚 long-standing aim of uniting Taiwan with the mainland 鈥� by force, if necessary. 鈥淪o long as China refuses to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, all of us in Taiwan ought to understand that even if we accept the entirety of China鈥檚 position and give up our sovereignty, China鈥檚 ambition to annex Taiwan will not simply disappear,鈥� he said.

China鈥檚 Communist Party-run state has never ruled Taiwan, but has claimed the island as part of China鈥檚 territory since 1949, when Mao Zedong鈥檚 revolutionary Red Army defeated Gen. Chiang Kai-shek鈥檚 Nationalist forces in the Chinese civil war. General Chiang and his troops retreated to Taiwan, relocating the Republic of China鈥檚 government 鈥� led by the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT) 鈥� to Taipei.

Beijing responded to Dr. Lai鈥檚 inauguration speech by reiterating its position on Taiwan. 鈥淭he day will come when China is completely reunified,鈥� Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a press conference on Monday. 鈥淭aiwan independence,鈥� he said, is a 鈥渄ead end.鈥�

Beijing has condemned as 鈥渄espicable鈥� Dr. Lai, who once called himself 鈥渁 practical worker for Taiwan independence.鈥� Still, experts don鈥檛 expect any radical moves from Dr. Lai. The DPP position is that Taiwan is de-facto independent, so declaring independence is not necessary.

Dr. Lai 鈥渨ill most certainly avoid provoking China with moves toward Taiwanese independence,鈥� says Lin Chong-Pin, an expert on cross-strait relations and a former Taiwan defense minister.

Meanwhile, China has recently shown signs of fine-tuning its approach to Taiwan, launching 鈥渁 new charm offensive鈥� aimed at Taiwanese people, while maintaining a hard line with the DPP, he says.

China鈥檚 response

China鈥檚 鈥渟trategy has shifted to a soft hand, which actively engages a broad cross-section of Taiwanese society 鈥� as distinct from the ruling party DPP,鈥� Mr. Lin says. For example, China has begun inviting groups of Taiwanese students, veterans, college students, and neighborhood officials to the mainland, he says.

Beijing has also indicated that despite Dr. Lai鈥檚 victory, it sees an opportunity with the relatively strong January election showing by the opposition KMT, which historically backed Taiwan鈥檚 unification with mainland China. The DPP 鈥渃annot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island,鈥� according to a January statement by the Taiwan Affairs Office of China鈥檚 State Council.

During the election, Beijing backed KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih. Although Mr. Hou came in second 鈥� with 33.5% of the vote compared with Dr. Lai鈥檚 40% 鈥� the KMT gained the highest number of seats in Taiwan鈥檚 parliament, depriving the DPP of its legislative majority.

Since the election, the KMT has been actively working to undo DPP policies, and is in a position to block new initiatives by Dr. Lai, says Nathan Batto, Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. 鈥淟ai will be able to run the government, but he will not be able to pursue an ambitious new agenda unless the KMT and/or TPP [Taiwan People鈥檚 Party] agree to it,鈥� Dr. Batto says.

In April, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou, of the KMT, in Beijing. 鈥淐ompatriots across the Strait have always been one family,鈥� Mr. Xi told Mr. Ma, stressing the historical, cultural, and blood ties between Taiwan and mainland China. 鈥淣o force 鈥� can separate us,鈥� he said.

Beijing 鈥渉as tried to signal that their approach to Taiwan is working 鈥� that peaceful reunification remains possible,鈥� says Amanda Hsiao, Senior China Analyst for the International Crisis Group.

鈥淐hina has been using a smaller and perhaps a sharper stick, and is dangling some carrots,鈥� she says.

President Lai underscored on Monday that, in dealing with China, Taiwan would 鈥渘either yield nor provoke.鈥� He stressed that Taiwan鈥檚 strength grows through its solidarity with other democracies, which together can combat disinformation and heighten deterrence.

Yi-ling Huang, a real estate agent who watched the inauguration on television, says Dr. Lai is striking the right balance. 鈥淗e is not against the mainland but he wants us to be strong and not easily bullied,鈥� she says. 鈥淗e wants the world to see Taiwan, and what Taiwan can contribute to the world.鈥�