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Australia鈥檚 decision to deny constitutional recognition to its First Peoples could herald a more divisive 鈥淭rump-style鈥� politics at the next national election, while pushing the prime minister to pivot to cost of living issues, some analysts said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese misread the public mood, analysts said Oct. 15, as he took responsibility for the referendum result, in which only the national capital voted 鈥淵es鈥� from among eight states and territories.

More than 60% of Australians voted 鈥淣o鈥� to altering the constitution to recognize Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island people through the creation of an Indigenous advisory body.

While Mr. Albanese said he respected the decision and his government would seek 鈥渁 new way forward,鈥� some analysts saw the conservative opposition buoyed by its success in opposing the landmark vote.

For Mr. Albanese, the referendum loss would be 鈥渁 personal as well as a political blow 鈥� he鈥檚 very committed to equity for First Nations peoples,鈥� said Chris Wallace, a specialist in political history and leadership at the University of Canberra.

Now he is expected to pivot to addressing cost of living issues pressing on voters, which had made it harder to win the referendum, she added.

Australia had rejected the 鈥減rime minister鈥檚 referendum,鈥� said opposition party leader Peter Dutton, adding that his conservative Liberal party would look to form policies to take to the next national election, due in 2025.

Mr. Dutton had opposed the referendum to cement his political position, and showed himself to be 鈥渁n effective, even superior campaigner,鈥� said Mark Kenny, a professor at the Australian National University.

鈥淗e鈥檚 going after the blue-collar Labor base in the suburbs and regions, informed by the teachings of Trump and Farage,鈥� Mr. Kenny added. 鈥淎ustralia may be in for a much more aggressive and divided style of politics seen in the U.S. and U.K.鈥�

Mr. Albanese made an error of judgment in pursuing a referendum that lacked cross-parliamentary support, as Liberal coalition partner the Nationals opposed it a year ago, said Mr. Kenny, who is with the university鈥檚 Australian Studies Institute.

Elected in 1996, Mr. Albanese saw the failure of the 1999 referendum for Australia to become a republic. Despite that experience as a lawmaker 鈥渉e squandered it, misreading the mood spectacularly,鈥� Mr. Kenny said.

No referendum has passed in Australia without bipartisan backing.

Moderate voters abandoned the Liberal party at last year鈥檚 election, switching to so-called Teal independent candidates in key inner city seats, and installing a Labor government for the first time in nine years.

Analysis of Oct. 14 referendum result showed outer metropolitan suburbs in the most populous states of New South Wales and Victoria voted 鈥淣o,鈥� while the inner city seats that switched from Liberal to independent last year voted 鈥淵es.鈥�

Mr. Dutton may not try to win back these Teal seats at the next election, Mr. Kenny said, adding that almost all of Labor鈥檚 rural and outer-suburban, working class seats voted 鈥淣o.鈥�

Oct. 15, Nationals lawmaker Bridget McKenzie criticized 鈥淵es鈥� voters as 鈥渧ery privileged, highly educated Australians in wealthy suburbs.鈥�

Former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who will join the board of Fox Corp next month, praised Mr. Dutton鈥檚 鈥渃ourageous鈥� campaign against the referendum in an interview with Sky News.

Mr. Abbott said what had been rejected was a change in the system of government, not the Aboriginal people.

However, Simon Banks, managing director of government relations firm Hawker Britton and former chief of staff to three Labor leaders, said there would not be calls for Mr. Albanese to resign, and Mr. Dutton instead had 鈥渢he biggest political problem.鈥�

He added, 鈥淒utton has made the task for the Liberal Party to recover the so-called Teal seats significantly harder. Meanwhile national opinion polls show no significant adverse electoral impact for Labor.鈥�

The latest Newspoll, published Oct. 14, shows Labor still two points up on the 2022 election result, and Mr. Albanese鈥檚 popularity dipping only slightly, preferred by half of voters to be prime minister, compared to Mr. Dutton鈥檚 30%.

The Liberal鈥檚 鈥渨recking ball campaign鈥� was easy to run, Ms. Wallace said, but 鈥渢o win the next election, it will have to replace Dutton with a more likable leader.鈥澛�

This story was reported by Reuters.聽