海角大神

As a sandstorm and frigid winds swept Beijing this week, parents bundling infants in blankets and leading small children by the hand lined up outside a fever clinic. Down the block, other lines formed outside pharmacies, where people made quick purchases and hurried away, gripping bags of herbal medicine.

Scenes like this are playing out across China鈥檚 capital in an atmosphere more subdued than celebratory as a COVID-19 outbreak runs rampant following the lifting on Dec. 7 of many of the nation鈥檚 strict controls. Restaurants, tea shops, malls, and movie theaters have reopened for business, only to sit deserted.听

The unfolding health crisis in the capital underscores how China鈥檚 abrupt abandonment of its 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� strategy risks creating significant short-term social and economic disruptions, as the country is unprepared for a wave of cases that local experts estimate will impact 840 million people. Indeed, just as the intrusive COVID-19 lockdowns curtailed economic growth and sparked large-scale protests, China鈥檚 reopening is causing its own setbacks, as staff absences halt businesses and many people hunker down at home.

Still, experts predict brighter days await the country later next year. China鈥檚 reopening offers opportunities to rekindle economic growth, revitalize society, and reintegrate with the world after three years of extreme internal controls and isolation. But how China grapples with the next three to six months will prove a major test of the country鈥檚 health and governance systems, shaping how strongly it emerges from its COVID-19 endgame.

In Beijing, officials are working to calm the public and prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed by what they call an exponential rise in patients. They are opening hundreds of new clinics and appealing to residents not to call the emergency 120 phone line unless the need is dire, after calls surged sixfold last week.

鈥淒o not panic,鈥� Li Ang, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Health Commission, advised the public Tuesday. People must keep fears in check, he urged, quoting a Chinese idiom: 鈥淒on鈥檛 blanch at the mention of a tiger.鈥�

Matter of trust

Wearing a black, padded jacket in the subfreezing weather, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, long the senior enforcer of China鈥檚 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� restrictions, visited the epicenter of Beijing鈥檚 outbreak on Tuesday with a new message.

Instead of insisting on the 鈥渃learing鈥� of every case, she expressed sympathy for front-line medical workers, while conveying 鈥淸Communist Party] General Secretary Xi Jinping鈥檚 concern and greetings to the people of the capital.鈥�

Apart from brief statements by Ms. Sun saying the danger of COVID-19 has waned, China鈥檚 top leaders have remained silent on the dramatic change in pandemic policy, shifting responsibility to national and local health officials. The result is a leadership void when the country needs it most, experts say.

鈥淣ow that the leader himself has abandoned zero-COVID 鈥� no one wants to be associated with this policy that has obviously failed,鈥� says Donald Low, a public policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. At the same time, he says, 鈥渘o one dares utter the words 鈥榣ive with COVID,鈥� because they have been opposing that for three years.鈥�

Mr. Xi, who gained a rare third term in October, closely associated himself with the 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� policy, hailing it as a demonstration of the superiority of China鈥檚 political system over those of the United States and other Western democracies.

China鈥檚 persistence until this month with Mr. Xi鈥檚 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� approach indicates a lack of policy flexibility that could have drawbacks in other areas, Mr. Low says. Although the policy succeeded in keeping COVID-19 cases and deaths low in China by world standards, its social and economic costs became unsustainable as authorities imposed ever harsher lockdowns to try to contain fast-spreading variants.

鈥淭he Chinese state has become far less adaptive, far less responsive, to a fast-evolving situation like a pandemic,鈥� he says.

After widespread protests and mounting cases helped trigger the policy鈥檚 end, the overnight lifting of many controls has created public confusion. Adding to the chaotic atmosphere is the growing inaccuracy of official data on cases, as testing declines sharply. Chinese experts are now downplaying the severity of COVID-19, directly contradicting years of propaganda proclaiming its lethality.

鈥淧eople are skeptical and distrustful of the government,鈥� says Mr. Low.

Travelers rejoice 鈥� and worry

At train stations across China last weekend, thousands of college students crammed onto trains to head home 鈥� released a month early by their universities so they could avoid getting stuck at school as COVID-19 cases surge.

鈥淪ome students were protesting because they were unhappy about the COVID policy,鈥� said one student, who asked to remain anonymous. 鈥淣ow the schools are sending all the students home early.鈥�

The recent easing of travel controls is one way China鈥檚 leaders are shifting their priority from 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� to revitalizing the country鈥檚 sluggish economy and gross domestic product growth, which has dropped to decades-low levels since 2020, and is only projected to recover to about 3% this year 鈥� less than leaders鈥� stated goal of 5.5%

Many Chinese welcome the lifting of travel restrictions, including the deactivation this week of a national cellphone app that tracked everyone鈥檚 movements to determine risk exposure. But as hundreds of millions of Chinese prepare to return to their hometowns next month for the Lunar New Year holiday, many worry about spreading COVID-19 to every corner of the country.

In terms of economic growth, 鈥渨e will see things getting worse before they are getting better,鈥� says Larry Hu, chief China economist for the Macquarie Group Ltd., in Hong Kong. 鈥淔or three to six months, we will see disruptions in production and consumption,鈥� he says, as 鈥渃onsumers will feel anxiety鈥� over the outbreak.

It鈥檚 an anxiety felt deeply throughout the capital. At one giant shopping mall in Beijing, many stores have seen few customers since reopening last week.听

Mr. Xi emphasized at a recent Politburo meeting that China seeks to 鈥渟ignificantly boost market confidence,鈥� and signaled Beijing would offer more support to private companies 鈥� a move critical to alleviating China鈥檚 near-record youth unemployment of around 18%.

The bright spot is that China鈥檚 economy is likely to rebound strongly later in 2023, experts say.听

鈥淲e are expecting 5% growth,鈥� says Mr. Hu.听

Seeking stability

Facing the urgent domestic pressures to minimize damage from the current COVID-19 outbreak and restart the economy, experts say China will seek to avoid foreign policy challenges in coming months.

China has 鈥渁mple incentive to seek a relatively stable external environment,鈥� says Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. 鈥淭he Chinese diplomatic charm offensive is understandable.鈥�

Mr. Xi has recently embarked on a string of overseas trips 鈥� to Central Asia, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia 鈥� for a series of meetings with foreign leaders, ending nearly three years during which he made no official international trips.

China has not yet lifted its COVID-19 restrictions that severely limit inbound travelers from overseas, but the Stimson Center鈥檚听Ms. Sun expects China鈥檚 international exchanges to gradually increase.

鈥淐hina is mobilizing think tank scholars to go out again and reengage,鈥� she says. Foreign experts are also eager to visit mainland China, she adds, although some may have safety concerns.

Recently, China鈥檚 leaders have even been conducting a series of in-person visits with foreign leaders without imposing the usual quarantine requirements.听

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held a face-to-face roundtable with the heads of six international economic organizations 鈥� including World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva 鈥� in China鈥檚 southern Anhui province earlier this month. 鈥淐hina鈥檚 doors will be opened wider,鈥� he promised the group, with leaders planning to 鈥渇acilitate international exchanges and people mobility鈥� in the coming months.

鈥淐hina needs the world,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd the world also needs China.鈥�