海角大神

A huge set of gold doors swings open, an announcer heralds the 鈥渘ewly elected General Secretary,鈥� and Xi Jinping strides, smiling and waving, onto the red-carpeted stage in Beijing鈥檚 Great Hall of the People, confirming his rare third term at the helm of China鈥檚 ruling Communist Party.

Clapping and following Mr. Xi is the newly promoted Li Qiang, whose expected installation in March as China鈥檚 next premier is all but confirmed by his place next to Mr. Xi as the No. 2 member of the party鈥檚 seven-man Politburo Standing Committee.

At Sunday鈥檚 press event unveiling China鈥檚 new leadership lineup, the rise of Mr. Li was telling. As the Party Secretary of Shanghai, Mr. Li oversaw a draconian and unpopular lockdown of the city鈥檚 25 million people during a major COVID-19 outbreak last spring, triggering protests and even calls for his dismissal. But Mr. Li stuck with the strict zero-COVID-19 strategy mandated by Mr. Xi, and his loyalty and close ties with Mr. Xi secured his promotion.

鈥淭he lockdown ... was a disaster for the residents of Shanghai, but ... it signaled Li was willing to put loyalty to Xi above everything else,鈥� says Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia Group think tank.聽

Indeed, unwavering fealty and tight connections with Mr. Xi have emerged as the main criteria for rising to the top in China today. Three of the newly promoted Politburo Standing Committee members, Mr. Li, Cai Qi, and Ding Xuexiang, have all served alongside Mr. Xi as his secretaries. All fit the mold of 鈥測es men鈥� rather than independent-minded officials willing to push back, experts say.

鈥淭hey are all quite familiar to you,鈥� Mr. Xi told the press as he introduced his new lineup 鈥� a familiarity that runs far deeper between the men and Mr. Xi himself.

鈥淭hese are not just people who have worked with Xi Jinping. These are people who are deeply trusted by Xi Jinping,鈥� says Victor Shih, an expert on the elite politics of China as examined in his recent book, 鈥淐oalitions of the Weak.鈥�

New extremes

Overall, the leadership overhaul at the just-concluded 20th Party Congress and related meetings marks a new extreme in Mr. Xi鈥檚 imposition of personalized, strongman rule together with his dismantling of the institutional norms and collective leadership built over 30 years by his post-Mao Zedong predecessors, experts say.

鈥淲hat we see here is the collective leadership form that Deng Xiaoping tried to establish in China after Mao died 鈥� Xi has pretty much completely destroyed and replaced it with a personalistic leadership system,鈥� says Susan Shirk, a research professor and chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.

In concentrating power in his own hands, Mr. Xi has jettisoned age limits for himself and proteges, while prematurely retiring members of rival factions, experts say.

Amid the recent wave of promotions, for example, key members of the main competing faction 鈥� made of officials affiliated with the Communist Youth League and represented by Mr. Xi鈥檚 predecessor Hu Jintao 鈥� were left out. Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, head of the National Committee of the Chinese People鈥檚 Political Consultative Conference, were both retired from the Politburo Standing Committee, although based on their ages they could have served an additional five-year term.聽Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, well under retirement age, was not selected to remain on the Politburo.

Mr. Hu Jintao鈥檚聽abrupt, escorted departure from the closing ceremony of the congress on Saturday 鈥� caught on camera and officially attributed to issues with the ex-leader鈥檚 health 鈥� also sparked speculation that his removal was part of a calculated effort to limit the influence of past leaders who may disagree with Mr. Xi.

One reason for Mr. Xi鈥檚 drive to surround himself with officials who will carry out his orders without question, experts say, is his view that China faces looming outside threats and must show unity in an emergency such as a financial crisis or war.

Indeed, at Sunday鈥檚 press conference, Mr. Xi raised such concerns, vowing that 鈥渨e will not be daunted by high winds, choppy waters, or even dangerous storms.鈥�

鈥淔or Xi Jinping ... having absolute compliance for his orders is very important now,鈥� says Dr. Shih, associate professor of political economy at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Smooth sailing, or courting instability?

To be sure, China has chalked up significant accomplishments under Mr. Xi, including reducing corruption, alleviating poverty, keeping COVID-19 deaths far lower than in other countries, and maintaining steady, if slowing, economic growth. He retains broad popularity, especially among China鈥檚 nationalists.

Yet Mr. Xi鈥檚 top-down style also creates risks of its own, making policy course corrections difficult and even potentially keeping Mr. Xi uninformed if his underlings 鈥� rewarded for adhering to his line 鈥� are reluctant or afraid to raise contrary opinions or share bad news lest they risk being ousted.

For example, Mr. Xi鈥檚 ongoing COVID-19 restrictions are causing regular lockdowns in cities across China and resulting in economic damage, even as they keep cases and deaths low.

Difficult, structural reforms vital to the long-term health of China鈥檚 economy may also be less likely under Mr. Xi, experts say.

鈥淭he overall policy mix Xi is pursuing is taking China further away from the right type of reforms that would actually solve its deep-seated problems,鈥� says Mr. Thomas. 鈥淴i having more allies at the top helps him do more of what he wants, but what he wants to do is not what鈥檚 best for solving China鈥檚 problems.鈥�

A related risk is that of political instability in the longer term, experts say, as Mr. Xi鈥檚 dominance could lead to opposition from frustrated elites, especially if public dissatisfaction grows with a slowing economy and Mr. Xi鈥檚 tighter Party controls over society and business.

鈥淭here鈥檚 an impression zero-COVID has really undercut public support for Xi Jinping in cities, and if that鈥檚 the case, the risk of splits in the leadership is greater,鈥� says Dr. Shirk, author of 鈥淥verreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.鈥�

Mr. Xi鈥檚 ultimate succession is also a concern. As he has secured a path to lifelong rule, he has given no clear indication that he has designated a successor.

鈥淭he risk of a disorderly succession is one of the most underappreciated political risks in China under Xi鈥檚 rule, because these norms of succession have been decisively broken,鈥� says Mr. Thomas.