海角大神

Bonifacio Ilagan was only 22 when the security forces raided the house where he鈥檇 been hiding after joining a large student activist movement resisting the regime of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

Authorities brought him to Camp Crame, a detention facility that today serves as the headquarters of the national police. There he was tortured in an attempt to extract information on the whereabouts of his colleagues in the movement, but Mr. Ilagan says he never gave up names.

鈥淚 refused to be the reason someone will be killed,鈥� he says.

Now in his 70s, Mr. Ilagan isn鈥檛 the only one who suffered under martial law. During those nine years that historians call the darkest period in Philippine history, more than 3,000 people were killed, and around 34,000 people were tortured and 70,000 imprisoned, according to human rights organizations. Many people disappeared, including Mr. Ilagan鈥檚 sister. But their stories seem to have little effect on the Filipino electorate, which is poised to pick Ferdinand 鈥淏ongbong鈥� Marcos Jr. 鈥� the son and namesake of the late dictator 鈥� as the country鈥檚 next president on Monday. Latest opinion polls also show Sara Duterte-Carpio, daughter of the controversial President Rodrigo Duterte, leading in the race for vice president, a position Filipinos elect separately.

This is a pivotal election packed with familiar names, and experts say the rise of the Marcos-Duterte ticket signals how disinformation and economic stagnation have made the Philippines vulnerable to democratic backsliding.

鈥淭he Marcos family brand, including that of Marcos Jr. at present, is a product of a painstaking process of mythmaking,鈥� says political scientist Cleve V. Arguelles, from De La Salle University in Manila. 鈥淧ublic support for them relies on the well-curated image of who Marcos Jr. is and what the Marcos family stands for. We see how heavily invested they are in propaganda 鈥� then and now.鈥�

Family rebound

Political observers and historians attribute Bongbong鈥檚 popularity to the family鈥檚 decadeslong effort to regain power.聽

Over their 21-year rule, the Marcoses are聽believed to have embezzled $5-10 billion,聽while national debt ballooned to $26 billion. After being ousted by the 1986 People Power Revolution, the family fled to Honolulu in an airplane full of cash, diamonds, and art. The patriarch died in exile in September 1989, and two years later, his family was allowed back into the Philippines.聽

Their return to the political arena was immediate, with Imelda Marcos 鈥� who was still facing multiple corruption charges 鈥� making her first bid for the presidency in 1992. She lost, but in the years following, most of the Marcos children 鈥� Imee, Bongbong, and Irene 鈥� found success in local races and consolidated political power in Ilocos Norte, the family鈥檚 bailiwick.

By the 2010s, the Marcos family was making a national comeback, alarming pro-democracy activists. When Bongbong decided to run for vice president in 2016, Mr. Ilagan and fellow martial law survivors formed the Campaign Against the Return of the Marcoses and Martial Law, to remind the public about the human rights violations committed by the last Marcos president. Bongbong lost that race to Vice President Leni Robredo, now his main opponent in the 2022 presidential election, but his popularity continued to grow. Today, he鈥檚 accrued millions of followers on Facebook and Tiktok, and maintains a sizable lead in recent polls.

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Fatima Gaw, a researcher at the University of the Philippines who鈥檚 been studying pro-Marcos messaging on YouTube since 2017, says the Marcoses have successfully harnessed social media to both 鈥渞ehabilitate the family鈥檚 image鈥� and 鈥渄ismantle the legacy of the People Power Revolution.鈥� Common tactics she鈥檚 observed include outright denial, with pro-Marcos vloggers and anonymous accounts asserting martial law or the associated human rights violations never actually happened. Other videos cherry-pick information or make exaggerated claims about the elder Mr. Marcos鈥� accomplishments.聽

One popular conspiracy theory alleges the descendants of a fictitious pre-colonial dynasty entrusted the elder Mr. Marcos with large amounts of gold, explaining the family鈥檚 suspiciously amassed wealth. Posts shared broadly by pro-Marcos Facebook groups claimed that money would be redistributed to the Filipino people upon Bongbong鈥檚 election, which the candidate later clarified was not true.

Experts agree that Bongbong is benefiting from what Mr. Arguelles describes as 鈥渁 systematic and well-oiled disinformation campaign,鈥� though the exact mechanics of that campaign are unclear. A recent study of disinformation leading up to the 2022 elections shows Ms. Robredo is the top target of negative social media posts, but Bongbong has denied the use of troll farms or historical revisionism.

Discontent

Still, the Marcos comeback cannot be blamed on disinformation alone. Their rehabilitation is also tied to the People Power Revolution鈥檚 unfulfilled promise of shared prosperity.聽

No president has successfully tackled corruption or wealth inequality in the Philippines. Millions still live below the poverty line, and a聽2019 survey found 64% of Filipino households experience food insecurity. As in many places, the pandemic has exacerbated these problems, making people even more open to a strongman leader.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not hard to imagine why Filipinos are willing to 鈥� risk the future of the country again with the Marcos family,鈥� says Mr. Arguelles. 鈥淚 see this development as a scramble for the familiar, even feudal order, because many of the modernist-reformist promises of the post-Marcos governments did not materialize.鈥�

In fact, many of Bongbong鈥檚 supporters 鈥� particularly younger voters who don鈥檛 remember martial law or people whose families benefited under the Marcos regime 鈥� now describe the 1970s as a sort of golden age, when crime and traffic were down and the world respected the Philippines.聽

鈥淚n a state of social stagnation, Marcos Jr.鈥檚 authoritarian nostalgia and fantasy become even more attractive,鈥� Mr. Arguelles adds.

But it鈥檚 not attractive to everyone. Mr. Ilagan sees echoes of his own student activism in the so-called Pink Movement that鈥檚 coalesced behind Ms. Robredo, who has gained some ground in the final weeks of the race. Whether or not they succeed in thwarting another Marcos presidency, Mr. Ilagan is banking on these youth to continue the fight against authoritarianism.

鈥淚 am heartened by the fact that there are many young people who continue our struggle,鈥� he says.聽