海角大神

In a surprise and widely welcomed pledge for the global environment, Chinese leader Xi Jinping committed in a speech to the United Nations in September that China would 鈥渁chieve carbon neutrality鈥� before 2060. Mr. Xi鈥檚 announcement came after pressure from European leaders and signaled a significant turnaround from Beijing鈥檚 long resistance to restrictions on economic growth. Whether China will reach its target remains uncertain. Yet experts say the pledge marks a major step in the world鈥檚 campaign to arrest climate change.

Why is China so critical?

China is the world鈥檚 largest producer of carbon dioxide, generating about 28%. CO2 accounts for about 80% of greenhouse gases, which trap heat in Earth鈥檚 atmosphere. Action from Beijing is essential to the goal of limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), as established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

鈥淚n the absence of Chinese cooperation, it would be very difficult to achieve the global carbon control efforts,鈥� says Yanzhong Huang, author of 鈥淭oxic Politics: China鈥檚 Environmental Health Crisis and Its Challenge to the Chinese State.鈥�

Internationally, China鈥檚 pledge was followed by two other large Asian economies, Japan and South Korea, which both committed to carbon neutrality by 2050. All build upon the European Union鈥檚 trailblazing move a year ago, when it vowed to become the first major economy to go climate neutral, a step above carbon neutral that includes other greenhouse gases, by midcentury.

Beijing鈥檚 goal is attainable, Dr. Huang says, since China鈥檚 top-down, state-led approach to environmental controls 鈥� and Mr. Xi鈥檚 centralization of power 鈥� makes it harder for local officials to resist policies to reduce carbon. 鈥淎s long as Xi remains committed ... disobedience and foot dragging should be very rare,鈥� says Dr. Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Instead, he predicts, 鈥渓ocal government officials will jump onto Mr. Xi鈥檚 policy bandwagon to demonstrate their enthusiastic support.鈥�

Still, the effort faces significant challenges: pressure on leaders to boost China鈥檚 economic growth; ongoing reliance upon coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel; and the lack of public pressure at home for tackling climate change.

How does Beijing plan to reach the goal?

Beijing has set an interim goal of reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030, followed by more aggressive measures to hit the 2060 target. Its strategy includes encouraging private investment in climate-friendly projects, reducing car emissions, and promoting electric vehicles. According to a recent government blueprint, by 2035 most of the country鈥檚 new cars will be either hybrids or new-energy vehicles.

鈥淏y 2025, China will be close to achieving peak emissions as a result of more ambitious actions to bolster renewables, pivot toward market mechanisms, and enhanced energy efficiency measures,鈥� according to an analysis by MacroPolo, the think tank of the Paulson Institute in Chicago.

What are the main challenges?

One major obstacle is China鈥檚 longstanding reliance on coal power. Coal accounted for more than 57% of China鈥檚 energy use in 2019, and the country continues to operate and construct coal mines and build new coal-fired plants. 鈥淭hey actually issued more construction permits to coal-fired plants in the first half of this year than in [all of] 2018 and 2019 respectively,鈥� says Dr. Huang. China鈥檚 carbon emissions increased in 2019 for the third year in a row.

鈥淒ethroning coal won鈥檛 happen overnight,鈥� MacroPolo senior research associate Ilaria Mazzocco writes in its report, saying coal industry officials argue coal is vital for China鈥檚 energy security. But she adds that Beijing is signaling changes, starting in 2021: freezing new power plant approvals, restricting coal power capacity targets, and other reforms to make renewable energy more attractive.

Political will poses another long-term challenge, Dr. Huang says. Although there is broad public support in China for controlling air pollution, Beijing lacks the kind of grassroots pressure to curb global warming that exists in Western democracies. While China鈥檚 authoritarian leaders have the final say, their agenda can shift because 鈥渢heir legitimacy is primarily dependent on their ability to deliver robust economic growth,鈥� he says. It is 鈥渧ery difficult for them to transcend the dilemma between economic growth and environmental protection.鈥�