海角大神

If US threats of 鈥渇ire and fury鈥� do not stop them, try Olympic ice skates.

That seems to be the thinking behind South Korean President Moon Jae-in鈥檚 eagerness to welcome North Korea to the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics 鈥� and share the global stage that Seoul has been seeking for more than 15 years. But he is taking a big gamble.

Mr. Moon has dubbed the Games that open today the 鈥淧eace Olympics,鈥� and expressed hope that they might pave the way for more substantive efforts to end the North鈥檚 nuclear program after two years of rising tensions. If they fail to do so, however, the Olympics could mark the end of the road for peaceful diplomacy.

When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signaled his willingness last month to send a delegation to the Games, Mr. Moon warmly welcomed the 22 athletes, including skiers, hockey players, and a pairs figure skating couple who skated their Olympic qualifying performance to the Beatles鈥� 鈥淎 Day in the Life.鈥�

鈥淚t can be very symbolic to show that the Korean people are one people in one nation and to try to revive that nationalistic feeling,鈥� says Kim Ji-yoon, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank in Seoul. 鈥淚 think the Olympic Games can also help lure the North Koreans to the negotiating table. I don鈥檛 really think it鈥檚 going to be a very significant step, but still, it鈥檚 a good point to start to talk, any kind of talk.鈥�

Some 61 percent of South Koreans approve of North Korea鈥檚 participation in 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics and 53 percent expect that the Games will improve inter-Korean relations, according to a聽Korea Press Foundation poll聽published Jan. 31. But聽Moon鈥檚 move has been met with a good deal of skepticism and even anger, particularly over his last-minute announcement that the two Koreas would field a joint women鈥檚 ice hockey team 鈥撀爉eaning some South Korean players would be sidelined.

鈥淭he North Korea thing has kind of ruined the Olympics,鈥� says Park Junghwan, a young man in Seoul who doesn鈥檛 think talks will yield any fruit 鈥� a view that he says was shaped in part by his mandatory military service. 鈥淣orth Korea did this kind of thing before 鈥� they were developing nuclear weapons and they came here and said some peaceful things. It is the same this time.鈥澛�

Give peace a chance?

Welcoming North Korean athletes is in keeping with the pure Olympic spirit, says B.J. Shin, who served as vice president for the Korean Olympic Committee for 15 years. As Korea鈥檚 chef de mission at the 2004 Athens Olympics, he marched side by side with his North Korean counterpart behind a Korean Peninsula flag 鈥� as the two teams are doing at this year鈥檚 opening ceremony.

The North Korean delegation will feature pairs figure skaters Ryom Tae-ok and Kim Ju-sik, the only North Koreans to qualify on merit. A dozen female ice-hockey players will compete on a joint team with South Korea 鈥� the real novelty of these games 鈥� while several skiers and two short-track speed skaters will compete under their own flag on a special invitation from the International Olympic Committee.

While Mr. Shin supports the athletes鈥� participation and agrees in principle with Moon鈥檚 push for talks, he doesn鈥檛 see any sign that Mr. Kim will give up his pursuit of ever more powerful nuclear weapons.

鈥淧resident Trump, he鈥檚 right,鈥� says Shin, who visited North Korea twice as CEO of Philips Electronics Korea. 鈥淭his guy 鈥� he鈥檚 not moving. He鈥檚 not moving one millimeter.鈥�

South Korea鈥檚 Olympic overture comes after an unprecedented escalation of North Korea鈥檚 nuclear and missile programs, which have accelerated despite US threats and increasingly punitive United Nations sanctions. In the past two years alone, Kim has fired more missiles than his father and grandfather launched in 25 years.

Moon, whose parents fled North Korea, was born in a North Korean refugee camp and strongly supports negotiations 鈥撀爐o Washington鈥檚 dismay. When Mr. Trump declared on Twitter that 鈥淭alking is Not the Answer鈥� last fall,聽Foreign Affairs pointed out聽that Moon 鈥� a practicing Roman Catholic 鈥� was embracing the 鈥渄iplomacy of encounter,鈥� a philosophy advocated by Pope Francis.

Some see North Korea鈥檚 Olympic bid as a deliberate attempt to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States. Certainly, its team鈥檚 presence in Pyeongchang draws attention towards the Korean aspects of the peninsula鈥檚 division 鈥� suggesting it is up to the two neighbors to resolve themselves. That distracts from the international aspects of Pyongyang鈥檚 nuclear threat to other countries, which poses a global problem.

Moon鈥檚 penchant for diplomacy has come in for criticism not only from conservatives at home and in the United States, but also from many of the young people who were key to his electoral victory last May. While they are progressive on social issues, they are far less inclined than their parents to make nice with North Korea.

Better together? Not for the young

Their parents largely still see Korea as one country, tragically and artificially divided.聽 The younger generation views North Korea as a foreign country whose society and system of government are alien.

Whereas their parents grew up stocking emergency food rations and keeping the bathtub full in case of war, they have resigned themselves to the fact that a war today could explode at the press of a nuclear button 鈥撀燼nd that there would be nowhere to flee.

Nor are they moved by ethnic nationalism, a move聽some see as positive聽in a broader sense, but not for Korean unification. Some 71.2 percent of 20-something South Koreans oppose reunification, according to a 2017 survey by the government-run Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. Many cite the economic burden that reunification imposed on West Germany, and point out that North Korea is far worse off than East Germany was.

Choi Jin-sun and Hwang Do-kyung, two young Korean women waiting in Seoul for their train to Pyeongchang, where the winter Games are being held, say they support negotiations in principle but are not hopeful about the results.聽

鈥淭alking is better than nuclear bombs,鈥� says Ms. Choi.

鈥淲e should try as much as we can,鈥� Ms. Hwang agrees, 鈥渂ut I think North Korea will not cooperate.鈥�

That is a view increasingly held by pundits too. They will be looking beyond North Korea鈥檚 Olympic charm offensive for a sign of a shift in behavior. If the nuclear tests and missile launches pick up again when the Games are over, it could become a 鈥渨e told you so鈥� moment for conservatives.

鈥淚f North Korea insists upon the same behavior or even ups the ante, then everything will go back to square one,鈥� says Bong Young-shik, a research fellow at the Institute for North Korean Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul.

鈥淚t will only provide a聽very useful justification and legitimacy to the Trump administration and the conservatives in South Korea and in Japan to claim that, 鈥楲ook, we have given a chance to Pyongyang and Seoul to settle this case in a peaceful manner, taking advantage of the Olympic Games, but it utterly failed and 鈥� we have exhausted all the diplomatic tools. Now it is time to turn to something else.鈥� 鈥�

In other words, if ice skates don鈥檛 cut it, we could be back to warlike threats of 鈥渇ire and fury.鈥�