海角大神

President Trump is expected to have a packed agenda when he arrives in China on Wednesday. In between a tour of the Forbidden City and an inspection of troops, he could announce billions of dollars in new deals for American companies and try to convince Chinese President Xi Jinping to put more pressure on North Korea.听

Yet whether and how Mr. Trump brings up China鈥檚 growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, an important arena for its bid for regional dominance, remains an open question. The issue appears to be a听secondary听priority for his administration at a time when American allies in the region are deeply worried about a rising China and what, if anything, the United States will do to help keep it in check in the era of 鈥淎merica First.鈥�

There鈥檚 little doubt that China would prefer to have the US out of the South China Sea altogether, as it looks to exert more influence over the Asia-Pacific region.听If Mr. Xi had his way, the issue likely wouldn鈥檛 come up at all during Trump鈥檚 visit,听especially amid new reports of China having undertaken more construction and land reclamation in the disputed waterway.

With the US focused on North Korea听鈥� and looking for Beijing鈥檚 help听鈥撎鼵hina has quietly continued transforming what were once seven barren reefs and atolls into island fortresses, complete with military-grade runways, radar facilities, and anti-missile systems.

And it looks like there鈥檚 more to come. Some analysts expect China to soon send its first deployment jet fighters to the Spratly Islands. Meanwhile, on Friday, China unveiled a new dredger,听described by its designers听as a 鈥渕agic island-maker.鈥澨鼳t 460-feet long, it鈥檚 the biggest ship of its kind in Asia听鈥� making it all the more likely to renew fears about Beijing鈥檚 ambitions in the South China Sea.

鈥淐hina didn't build these islands to simply use them for tourism or for lighthouses,鈥� says Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 鈥淐hina built them as military outposts, and so it really is a matter of time before we actually see military assets operating out of them.鈥�

Watching and waiting

That such an outcome appears not only听likely听but perhaps even inevitable, has China鈥檚 neighbors in the region increasingly on edge. Their worries have been exacerbated by the lingering uncertainty over US policy under Trump, Ms. Glaser says. US allies and others will surely pay close attention to Trump鈥檚 speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Vietnam on Friday听to see if he reaffirms American military commitment to the region.

But although Trump is expected to use the speech to call for a 鈥渇ree and open鈥� Indo-Pacific region,听it鈥檚 uncertain what he will say about American engagement in Asia. Trump's听five-nation,听12-day听trip gives him the opportunity听to clarify his long-term vision听for the US in one of the fastest-growing, most听dynamic regions of the world 鈥� one that largely revolves around the South China Sea.

鈥淭he problem is we have no idea what President Trump鈥檚 South China Sea policy will be moving forward,鈥� says Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in China. 鈥淲e have to wait and see.鈥�

In the meantime, countries in the region have been hedging their bets while trying to appease a far more powerful China. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has stopped joint patrols with the US in the South China Sea and toned down his country's criticism of China鈥檚 territorial claims. Then there鈥檚 Vietnam, which, after emerging over the summer as one of the most vocal opponents of China鈥檚 maritime activities,听has recently agreed to manage its disputes with China through friendly talks.

鈥淐ountries are quite worried about aligning themselves too closely with听a United States听that may not have the staying power that they want,鈥� Glaser says. 鈥淏ut they all want a counterbalance to China. Every country is concerned about being vulnerable to Chinese coercion and pressure.鈥�

Slow but steady?

In Xi鈥檚 vision of national rejuvenation, analysts say, China is destined to replace the US as the preeminent power in Asia. That Beijing has declared the South China Sea a sovereign 鈥渃ore interest鈥� hints at Xi鈥檚 strategic priorities. In his opening address at the Communist Party congress last month, Xi called the building of artificial islands in the waterway a highlight of his first five-year term as China鈥檚 leader.

鈥淐onstruction听on islands and reefs听in the South China Sea has seen steady progress,鈥� he said near the start of his report, leaving unclear when the construction will end.

Zhang Baohui, a professor of international relations at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, says in an email that for now, Xi is unlikely to risk inflaming tensions in the South China Sea. After emerging from the听congress听as China鈥檚 most powerful leader in decades, he appears content with pursuing a quiet buildup while restoring his county to what he considers its rightful place as a global power.听

鈥淚t is quite obvious that Xi鈥檚 real love is to build Chinese global leadership,鈥� Dr. Zhang says. 鈥淪oft power and things like 鈥極ne Belt, One Road鈥櫶齛re听far more important for China than taking additional actions in the South China Sea,鈥� he says, referring to China鈥檚听initiative to build roads, railways, and other infrastructure projects around the globe.

While China says it doesn鈥檛 plan to restrict access to the South China Sea听鈥� which is rich in natural resources and听carries $3.4 trillion in annual trade听鈥� it claims almost all of it as sovereign territory. Beijing has refused multilateral negotiations over overlapping territorial claims and ignored a landmark ruling by an international tribunal last year that rejected the legality of its claims within the so-called 鈥渘ine-dash line.鈥�

In response to China鈥檚 island building and militarization, the US Navy has continued the Obama-era policy of conducting regular freedom-of-navigation operations through the South China Sea. Still, many wonder whether Trump is willing to do more at a time when he is seeking Xi's help to rein in a nuclear-armed North Korea.

鈥淭rump has been less outspoken on the South China Sea issue than Obama for different reasons, both his lack of interest in US primacy here and his need for China鈥檚 help on other issues,鈥� Zhang says. 鈥淭o enlist Xi鈥檚 help on the North Korean issue, Trump may choose not to discuss the South China Sea in Beijing.鈥�