海角大神

After arriving at one of the many towering malls in this crowded capital, Saphiera Suwandi rattles off a list of complaints about the congested streets.

鈥淲asting time, wasting energy, and wasting money because of the gasoline,鈥� she laments as she sips a glass of fresh watermelon juice. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 only getting worse.鈥�

Ms. Suwandi admits she got lucky on this rainy afternoon in early December. The drive from her house in the neighboring city of South Tangerang took an hour and a half. 鈥淚t wasn鈥檛 bad,鈥� she says. 鈥淪ometimes it can take three.鈥�

About 30 million people live in Greater Jakarta, making it one of the most densely populated places in the world. The megacity鈥檚 notorious 鈥渕acet鈥� 鈥� Indonesian for traffic jam 鈥� can turn a normally short jaunt into an hours-long journey. Traffic barely crawls during a rush hour that can last far longer than 60 minutes. Flooded lanes and accidents bring it to a standstill.

Like many Southeast Asian cities, Jakarta has long suffered from a lack of infrastructure development. But that鈥檚 quickly started to change over the past year as Asia鈥檚 two wealthiest countries and most powerful competitors, China and Japan, have pledged to help build new railways, roads, and the city鈥檚 first subway.

The fight over infrastructure projects in the Indonesian capital is just one front in a larger battle between the two Asian giants for economic and political dominance in Southeast Asia and beyond. Lam Peng Er, a professor at the National University of Singapore who studies Sino-Japanese relations, has dubbed their escalating rivalry 鈥渁 great game,鈥� the 21st-century extension of long-simmering tensions.

On the line are valuable trade routes through the South China Sea and expanded spheres of influence in Asia. The two countries have avoided military conflict. Instead, they鈥檝e waged a multibillion-dollar financial war whose newest player, the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), has Japan and the United States worried that China could reshape the global economic agenda on its own terms. Dr. Lam and other analysts say it鈥檚 too early to declare a winner, but that Southeast Asian countries have much to gain.

鈥淥bviously there are real opportunities here,鈥� says Arne Westad, a professor at Harvard University鈥檚 Kennedy School of Government who studies Asian geopolitics. 鈥淭hey could achieve quite a bit in terms of their own aims by playing China and Japan against each other.鈥�

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that Asia must spend $8 trillion on infrastructure before 2020 to maintain its economic growth and living standards. It's a massive demand that China and Japan are eager to help fill, and one that can bolster their own slowing economies.

In November, the Japanese and Philippine governments signed a $2 billion loan agreement for a rail project, the largest assistance package ever awarded by Japan. Meanwhile, China is building a $6 billion railroad through Laos and recently assured Vietnam that it is ready to finance large-scale infrastructure projects there, too.

For the traffic-choked and power-starved nations of Southeast Asia, the competition between Japan and China for their favor is a welcome boon. The ADB says if the right projects are completed, people in the region could get an extra $4.5 trillion in income in the decade through 2020, and another聽$8.5 trillion after that.

Overcoming the infrastructure gap

Suwandi dislikes Jakarta鈥檚 congested streets both as an ordinary citizen and a business owner. She and her family own a shoe factory in South Tangerang and seven retail stores across the Jakarta metro area.

鈥淭he traffic is something we think about a lot,鈥� Suwandi says. 鈥淲e look at ways to find the roads that are less crowded. We change delivery times.鈥� For small deliveries, the family hires motorbike drivers who can maneuver crowded streets more easily than the van drivers they otherwise rely on.

The World Bank estimates that Indonesia needs to invest about $600 billion in infrastructure over the next five years to keep pace with its rising economy. But over the past two decades, progress has moved as slowly as the traffic it鈥檚 intended to fix.

Spending on infrastructure in Southeast Asia collapsed after the 1997 financial crisis and has yet to recover. Indonesia now spends 3 percent of its annual gross domestic product on roads, railways, and other public works projects, less than half of what it spent before the crisis.聽

Unable to meet the growing list of infrastructure needs on its own, Indonesia has turned to China and Japan for help. Japan鈥檚 Mitsui & Co., for example, is engaged in a major expansion of Jakarta鈥檚 main port. And an Indo-Japanese consortium has begun work on a $3 billion mass rapid transit system through the capital鈥檚 downtown.

Not to be outdone, state-owned Chinese companies and banks have signed contracts of their own. These include a $2.5 billion deal to upgrade 30 ports in eastern Indonesia and the construction of a $5.5 billion railway between Jakarta and Bandung.

鈥淐hina and Japan are very much concerned with staying on Indonesia鈥檚 good side,鈥� says Gustav Papanek, an economist who has advised and studied Indonesia for five decades. 鈥淭he competition between these two countries is great for it.鈥�

Southeast Asia on the rise

Despite Southeast Asia鈥檚 infrastructure hurdles, analysts predict it will remain one of the world鈥檚 fastest-growing regions in the coming years. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates the region鈥檚 growth will average 4.6 percent through the end of the decade.

Japan, in comparison, has been in recession four times since the 2008 financial crisis. And while China predicts its own economic output will expand by about聽6.5 percent this year, economists reckon the real rate is much lower. China鈥檚 transition from an export-fueled industrial nation to a service-based economy has slowed its once double-digit growth and sent shock waves through the global economy.

In search of new ways to spark economic growth, the two countries have turned to Southeast Asia for new investment opportunities. A recent survey of Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean business leaders revealed that they consider the region the most promising market for foreign expansion in 2016 amid China鈥檚 dimming outlook.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged to add an additional $10 billion to China鈥檚 growing pool of infrastructure lending in the region at an annual summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Malaysia in November.

Then, in January, the AIIB opened its doors in Beijing. The bank, which has 57 members, though both Japan and the US refused to join, is set to finance major infrastructure projects across Asia with its聽$100 billion in capital. Separately, China is rolling out the 鈥淥ne Belt, One Road鈥� initiative to revive the ancient Silk Road route through Central Asia to Europe. A maritime equivalent is planned for Southeast Asia.

To help give itself an edge, Japan has vowed to cut the time it takes to approve infrastructure loans from three years to between 18 months and two years. It鈥檚 also agreed to take on more financial risk by ending its practice of requiring government guarantees for each loan. Additionally, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced at the summit in Malaysia that Japan and the ADB, which the country backs, would seek to provide $110 billion in infrastructure funding in Asia over the next five years.

Ties between Japan and China have long been strained by historical and territorial disputes. Their face-off in Southeast Asia comes amid rising tensions over a group of islands in the East China Sea known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and the Diaoyu Islands in China. China has incited a similar row with maritime Southeast Asian countries 鈥� and the US 鈥� by claiming sovereignty over large parts of the South China Sea.

鈥淕iven the relationship that now exists between China and Japan, the Japanese government has a very direct interest in making as many friends as possible in the wider region,鈥� says Dr. Westad of Harvard. In addition to pursuing its economic interests, he adds, Japan 鈥渘eeds to take its own role in the region more seriously now for security reasons.鈥�

Westad says it鈥檚 too early to tell which country has the upper hand. Tokyo has long had warmer relations in Southeast Asia, but Beijing鈥檚 growing economic and political influence has made it a strong challenger and led to fierce bidding wars.

China beat out Japan for construction of the high-speed train in Indonesia, the country鈥檚 first, by promising not to take taxpayer money or loan guarantees from the Indonesian government. But last month Japan was the nation celebrating when it clinched a $15 billion deal to build a high-speed line between Mumbai and Ahmedabad in India.

High-speed trains in Thailand

For residents of Chiang Mai, the largest city in northern Thailand, plans to build a high-speed train to Bangkok are eagerly anticipated. Hotel and restaurant owners expect tourism to rise. Businesspeople look forward to having the additional option when traveling outside the city.

鈥淎ll the trains now are too slow and they鈥檙e always delayed,鈥� says Saksan Apichai, co-owner of Pause Hostel. 鈥淎 high-speed train will be good for business.鈥�

The train will be built with the help of Japan. Construction is scheduled to start in 2019, after Japanese and Thai officials conduct a detailed survey of the more-than-400-mile route and negotiate how to finance its $8.1 billion price tag.

If the project is realized, it would mark the second time Japan has exported its bullet train technology, a beloved symbol of the country鈥檚 technological and economic power. (Taiwan introduced the system in 2007.)

It would also become one of Thailand鈥檚 first high-speed trains, meaning the country would have reached a major milestone in its plan to upgrade its railway system after years of neglect. The country鈥檚 prolonged political instability in recent years has caused vital infrastructure projects to be delayed or overlooked.

The government hopes to finally fix that with its pledge to spend more than $100 billion on infrastructure over the next seven years. Financing will come from various sources, including Japan and China. The bulk of the projects are planned for the next two years and include train routes that eventually will stretch from China in the north through Malaysia in the south to Singapore.

鈥淭he year 2016 and 2017 will be the year of public infrastructure construction, the highest in history,鈥� Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, Thailand鈥檚 transport minister, told Reuters.

Any amount of improvement to Thailand鈥檚 crumbling infrastructure can鈥檛 come soon enough for Akkapon Wanich. The 27-year-old son of a garment factory owner in Chiang Mai, Mr. Akkapon recently moved from Bangkok back to his hometown to help with the family business. He plans to succeed his father in the next couple of years and has big ambitions.

鈥淏usiness right now is OK for him, but not for me,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 want to expand the factory and find new clients in emerging markets. I want to make it grow.鈥�

But Akkapon realizes he can鈥檛 expand the business on his own. He needs reliable roads and trains to build a supply network. He needs dependable electricity to boost productivity. And he needs serviceable ports to ship products overseas.

Happily for him, Japan and China are all too willing to help.