海角大神

As pro-democracy street protests swell and recede inconclusively in Hong Kong, Beijing may feel little pressure to give way. But the wave of discontent that has swept the city over the past two weeks threatens much greater challenges to China鈥檚 rule there in the future.

鈥淭here will be a long period of confrontation,鈥� predicts Ting Wai, who teaches politics at Hong Kong Baptist University. 鈥淭he recent movement may stop, but the conflict will continue,鈥� he adds, fueled by fundamentally different views of what Hong Kong should look like.

Behind the dispute over how Hong Kong鈥檚 next leader should be elected lies an awkward contradiction at the heart of the city鈥檚 status since its handover to China in 1997: 鈥渙ne country, two systems鈥� as Deng Xiaoping put it.

For Beijing, 鈥渙ne country鈥� is the key priority. For most Hong Kongers, 鈥渢wo systems鈥� is what they care most about.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 a question of values, of how we want to see Hong Kong develop,鈥� says Yan-yan Yip, head of Civic Exchange, Hong Kong鈥檚 leading governance think tank. 鈥淭hat means there is no easy way out.鈥澛�

The recent trouble boiled over when the Chinese government insisted that all candidates running for Chief Executive in 2017 elections should be vetted by a committee stacked with Beijing loyalists.

Choose any color, so long as it鈥檚 red, Hong Kong voters have been told.

Central government officials 鈥渉ave made it clear that they cannot accept candidates who would work against them,鈥� says Starry Lee, vice chairwoman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the city鈥檚 leading pro-Beijing party. 鈥淭hey have to deal with this from a national security point of view.鈥�

For the protesters, demanding the open nomination of chief executive candidates, it is a matter of democracy and of their freedom of choice. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 demonstrate, I鈥檓 afraid that China will take away our freedom in a couple of years,鈥� said Jenny Chan, a student nurse, as she handed out water to fellow demonstrators last week.

Chinese or Hong Kong identity?聽

Hong Kongers care about their freedom of choice. When the Hong Kong Transition Project, which has been monitoring public opinion since the handover, asked people last April what was the most important thing they would like to see protected and promoted, 65 percent said 鈥淗ong Kong鈥檚 identity as pluralistic and international.鈥� Only 4 percent responded 鈥淐hina鈥檚 identity as ruled by the Communist party.鈥澛�

Among those under 30, the picture was even more pronounced: 84 percent chose a pluralist Hong Kong, while just 2 percent wanted most to protect China鈥檚 identity.聽

Equally problematic for Beijing is the way in which young people increasingly identify themselves as 鈥淗ong Kong people鈥� rather than as Chinese. The same April survey found that 55 percent of respondents under 30 defined themselves as a 鈥淗ong Kong person鈥� and 30 percent as a 鈥淐hinese Hong Konger,鈥� while 10 percent called themselves 鈥淗ong Kong Chinese鈥� and 5 percent simply 鈥淐hinese.鈥�

Mainland observers blame that on a lack of 鈥減atriotic education鈥� 鈥� the Communist Party-boosting civics classes that all mainland schoolchildren take.聽

鈥淭he lack of civic education makes young Hong Kong people confused about their identity,鈥� says Zou Pingxue, a scholar affiliated with the Beijing government鈥檚 Office for Hong Kong and Macao Affairs. 鈥淥nly a correct sense of identity and a right understanding of 鈥榦ne country two systems鈥� will help with its implementation.鈥澛�

But an attempt by the Hong Kong government to introduce mainland-style 鈥減atriotic education鈥� in 2011 failed 鈥� defeated by mass demonstrations by students who protested about plans to 鈥渂rainwash鈥� them.

鈥淏eijing is puzzled that 17 years after the handover, Hong Kong hearts have not returned to China,鈥� says Professor Ting. 鈥淏ut the means they use are characteristic of the Communist Party and they are not appealing to Hong Kongers.鈥澛�

Resentment against mainlanders聽

Hong Kong鈥檚 citizens have robustly rejected other examples of mainland political culture, such as an anti-sedition law that was withdrawn in the face of widespread public opposition 鈥� and large demonstrations 鈥� in 2003.聽

But there are fears that an alien political culture is threatening to creep in anyway; in a white paper on Hong Kong鈥檚 future published in June, Beijing insisted that all administrators, including judges, 鈥渓ove the country.鈥� Many judges worried that this was an attempt to undermine their independence, since in Chinese official-speak 鈥渓ove the country鈥� means 鈥渄o not challenge the Communist Party.鈥澛�

Free press advocates, meanwhile, were especially shocked by the brutal knife attack in February on Kevin Lau Chun-to, former editor of the liberal daily Ming Pao, which had run controversial articles on the business dealings of prominent Hong Kong citizens.

Locals are not shy of voicing their growing resentment against mainlanders 鈥� neither the 40 million tourists who visit the city each year (who are known disdainfully as 鈥渓ocusts鈥�), nor those who stay and buy apartments, pushing home prices out of the reach of many Hong Kongers.

Such pressures are changing the nature of Hong Kong, say old-timers. The immigrants, who speak Mandarin, not the local language Cantonese, 鈥渄on鈥檛 really want to integrate into Hong Kong society,鈥� says Ting. 鈥淭hey think Hong Kong should adapt to them. If they come with a Chinese mindset and a Communist Party mentality, eventually Hong Kong will be changed.鈥�

鈥淲ithout democracy,鈥� he argues, 鈥渨e cannot protect ourselves from negative influences from the mainland.鈥澛�

New self-confidence聽

The demonstrators may not achieve their goal of a fully democratic election in 2017; the Hong Kong government called off talks planned for聽Friday聽when student leaders announced a new round of civil disobedience. But the protests have created a new mood of self-confidence, say the young people who have joined the street sit-ins and their supporters.

鈥淭his feels like the start of something,鈥� said Arthur Lo, a neurology student, as he sat in the road outside the government headquarters one recent morning amongst clumps of other youngsters. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the start of people learning that they have to make their voices heard to the government.鈥澛�

Lam Wai-man, a scholar who has written extensively on social movements鈥� impact on Hong Kong鈥檚 political scene, says that over the past two weeks she has noticed 鈥渓ess fear in peoples鈥� hearts and more courage to come out when they feel they are upholding their values.鈥澛�

The demonstrations, believes Kenneth Chan Ka-lok, a former chairman of the pro-democracy Civic party, 鈥渉ave punched a big hole in the political landscape, and raised questions about Hong Kong鈥檚 core values that won鈥檛 be wished away.鈥�

The risk, he adds, is that as students grow more assertive 鈥渢his could degenerate into a straight fight between Hong Kong and Beijing ideas of identity. That鈥檚 going to be an ongoing crisis 鈥� and very dangerous for Hong Kong and China too.鈥�