海角大神

North Korean state-run television today aired a first: the image of uniformed guards pulling the former power behind the North Korean throne out of a meeting at which he was stripped of all his posts.听

The broadcast confirms that Kim Jong-un鈥檚 uncle Jang Song-thaek was removed from his positions in the highest-level leadership change since the young Mr. Kim came to power. The question remains what Mr.听Jang did to suffer such total disgrace after having served as听the right-hand man to Mr. Kim for nearly two years after the death听of Kim鈥檚 father, Kim Jong-il. 听Although numerous figures have been purged in听North Korea, none has appeared in a photograph on state TV being dragged from a Workers鈥� Party Congress in the arms of uniformed guards at the moment of his fall from grace.

Denounced for crimes ranging from 鈥渁nti-state鈥� activity to corruption, Jang is believed to have been a divisive figure whose passing from the scene may do as much to solidify as to undermine the power of Kim Jong-un.听Jang鈥檚 worst offense appears to have been that he was at odds with military leaders on reform of the North鈥檚 crumbling economy.

An economic reformer?

Jang was 鈥渢he de facto chairman of the capitalist wing of听North Korea,鈥� says Michel Breen, a businessman who has visited听Pyongyang听a number of times and wrote a brief biography of Kim Jong-il, Kim's late father. 鈥淗e was in charge of moves toward capitalism and reviving the economy.鈥�

Jang鈥檚 inclination to implant capitalist styles on听North Korea鈥檚 state trading companies is seen as one of the principal factors behind a military-led drive to eradicate him and his influence.听

鈥淭he state trading companies were the conglomerates that kept the elite going,鈥� says Mr. Breen. 鈥淭hey operated capitalist state businesses.鈥� Now, says Breen, some of the state companies over which Jang held sway 鈥渕ay find themselves high and dry.鈥�

The decision to get rid of Jang may not have an immediate effect on South Korean companies producing light industrial products at the jointly operated听Gaesong Industrial Complex, just above the line with听South Korea, but analysts believe his encouragement of that opportunity for North-South cooperation may have been a factor in his fall.

鈥淕aesong is related to what is happening,鈥� says Lee Chang-choon, a former South Korean diplomat who once served as ambassador at the International Atomic Energy Agency in听Vienna. 鈥淭he military is said to have opposed the reopening of the Gaesong complex鈥� 鈥� closed for three months earlier this year during a crisis that seemed at one point to bring the two听Koreas听to the brink of open conflict.

Motive for the purge

Jang鈥檚 downfall raises contrary views and theories about what really happened 鈥� and what鈥檚 likely next. One view is that Kim Jong-un decided to eliminate Jang in order to remove a threat and consolidate power.

The polar-opposite theory is that Jang鈥檚 demise leaves Kim himself open to a power grab by the same clique of military leaders who hated Jang鈥檚 rise to such seeming omnipotence. 鈥淛ang was Kim鈥檚 shield for two years,鈥� says Kim Ki-sam, a former official at听South Korea鈥檚 National Intelligence Service, now living in the听United States.听鈥淭here are thousands of snakes around Kim Jong-un.鈥�

Regardless of which theory is correct, the North Korean ruling elite is now seen as in such turmoil that the leadership will not be able to deal effectively with the outside world for the foreseeable future.

鈥淭he question is who controls North Korea,鈥� says Lakhvinder Singh, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul who has been observing the Byzantine intricacies of North Korean politics and diplomacy for the past 15 years. 鈥淔or now, the military has succeeded.鈥�

Under the circumstances,听North Korea听is likely to be too deeply involved in internal problems either to engage in diplomacy on its nuclear program or to engage in more than rhetorical threats against听South Korea.

鈥淣orth Korea听will be very nervous and tense,鈥� says听Choi Jin-wook,听North Korea听expert at the Korea Institute of National Unification. 鈥淜im Jong-un himself may be in danger.听North Korea听will not do anything.鈥�

In the meantime, the nature of Jang鈥檚 downfall, as captured in the photograph distributed by North Korean state TV, 鈥渋s a warning for everyone not to do anything.鈥澨�