海角大神

For once, Washington and Beijing are on the same side. Both the United States and China have lost patience with North Korea鈥檚 intensifying threats of war, and both fear that a misstep could spell disaster.

Could that coincidence of interest lead the two often fractious rivals to cooperate to defuse the crisis, as former US ambassador to China and Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman suggested to CNN on Sunday?

Perhaps, but only up to a point.

The current situation, in which North Korea has threatened the US and its ally South Korea with nuclear strikes, is 鈥渁 golden opportunity for the US and China to work together and build mutual trust,鈥� argues Cheng Xiaohe, a North Korea expert at Renmin University in Beijing.

But 鈥渢here are limits to any cooperation" because the two nations鈥� long-term interests differ,聽cautions Cai Jian, deputy head of the Korean Studies Research Center at Fudan University in Shanghai.

To be sure, both want to halt North Korea鈥檚 nuclear weapons program, and to preserve peace on the Korean peninsula.

The United States, though, 鈥渨ants to see denuclearization even at the cost of regime change鈥� that would upend Kim Jong-un鈥檚 government in Pyongyang, says Denny Roy, an expert in northeast Asian security at the East-West Center in Honolulu. 鈥淚n fact, to American ears, regime change sounds pretty good,鈥� he adds.

The Chinese government, on the other hand, 鈥渨ants denuclearization but not at the risk of regime change鈥� that would have unpredictable consequences for Beijing鈥檚 long-time ally, Dr. Roy points out.

At the moment, says Daniel Sneider, an analyst at Stanford University鈥檚 Shorenstein Center, 鈥渢here is a curious parallel鈥� between US and Chinese positions on the Korean crisis.

鈥淣either wants to see an escalation of tension that could lead to an exchange of fire, and both are worried about what their respective allies might do in that situation,鈥� he says.

鈥淭here is no doubt that China is angry at the North Koreans and worried that they might do something,鈥� adds Sneider. 鈥淏ut the question is still whether that will make Beijing intervene.鈥�

In a speech Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping insisted that 鈥渘o one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains.鈥�

That was a slap at both North Korea and the United States, whose current military maneuvers in South Korea first prompted Pyongyang鈥檚 vitriolic response, say Chinese scholars. 鈥淗e was trying to kill two birds with one stone, but his primary target was North Korea,鈥� explains Professor Cheng.

The unusually harsh tone of President Xi鈥檚 comment echoed a warning from Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who told United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Saturday that China 鈥渄oes not allow any troublemaking on China鈥檚 doorstep.鈥�

The message, believes Cheng, is that if Pyongyang continues to ignore Beijing鈥檚 admonitions to halt its nuclear and long-range missile tests, China 鈥渨ill take unilateral action, including meaningful reductions in aid鈥� for the first time. North Korea depends on subsidized shipments of Chinese fuel and food.

鈥淐hina鈥檚 soft line has not worked, but neither has the US hard line,鈥� says Cheng. 鈥淭he two governments have to find a way to strike a balance.鈥�

The problem, though, is that 鈥渁ny policy tough enough to promote denuclearization would also probably risk regime change,鈥� so China would reject it, predicts Roy.

Though China and the US share an interest in peace on the peninsula and a denuclearized North Korea, 鈥淐hina is opposed to any US interference in the balance of power鈥� between North and South Korea, points out Professor Cai.聽鈥淔or China, stability means the status quo,鈥� he says.

US officials would like to see China change its strategic calculus, and come round to the Western view that the status quo 鈥� the perpetuation of Kim Jong-un鈥檚 regime 鈥� carries more risks than the likely results of being tougher on Pyongyang.

A debate on such questions has been raging amongst Chinese scholars and government advisers for some time, in the face of North Korea鈥檚 defiance of Beijing鈥檚 will. Those favoring a harder line against Pyongyang appear to have gained ground, but they have by no means carried the day.

Xi鈥檚 statement on Sunday, suggests Cai, 鈥渕arks a slight shift in China鈥檚 position 鈥� toward putting more pressure on North Korea in this crisis. But China is being very careful to modulate its policy, because it does not want to see North Korea collapse.

鈥淭he overall policy toward North Korea has not changed,鈥� says Cai. 鈥淐hina may cooperate to some extent with the United States in this crisis, but when the crisis is over, the cooperation will be over too.鈥澛�