North Korea lashes out at the US and South. How big a threat?
Renewed threats from North Korea's regime have given rise to questions about how far the North Koreans will go in carrying them out.
Renewed threats from North Korea's regime have given rise to questions about how far the North Koreans will go in carrying them out.
An outpouring of North Korean rhetoric against both the US and South Korea this week raises the inevitable questions: How serious are the North Korean threats and how far will the North Koreans go in carrying them out?
North Korea鈥檚 latest threat of 鈥渟trong countermeasures鈥� against South Korea if the South supports UN sanctions against the North actually worries some analysts more than the North鈥檚 claim to be testing a nuclear device聽capable of hitting the US. 聽
No one believes North Korea is about to 鈥渢arget鈥� the US in the near future with more than rhetorical volleys, but North Korea has staged numerous 鈥渋ncidents鈥� against South Korea and might well have some more in mind.
鈥淭he North Koreans are playing with fire,鈥� says David Straub, associate director of the Korean studies program at Stanford University. 鈥淚t鈥檚 more dangerous than the nuclear threat.鈥�
North Korea鈥檚 Committee for Peaceful Reunification of Korea blasted South Korea in language that strikes observers as anything but peaceful.
鈥淭here will be no more discussion on denuclearization between the North and South in the future,鈥� it said in a statement. "If the puppet group of traitors takes a direct part in the UN 'sanctions,' it said, "the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] will take strong physical counter-measures against it."聽Indeed, the statement went on " 'Sanctions' mean a war and a declaration of war against us."
The fear is that North Korea will challenge the South with surprise attacks similar to those in 2010, when a torpedo sank a South Korean Navy vessel, killing 46 sailors, and shells fired from the North Korean coast killed four people on a small South Korean island.聽
The North Koreans appear to be testing the will of South Korea鈥檚 president-elect, Park Geun-hye, daughter of the long-ruling South Korean dictator, Park Chung-hee, who was assassinated in 1979. Many observers believe that Ms. Park, who will be inaugurated next month, is likely be a tougher leader than outgoing President Lee Kyung-bak, also a conservative but reluctant to act militarily against the North. (Read Donald Kirk's reporting on South Korea's first woman president here)
Under Park, says Mr. Straub, 鈥渢here鈥檚 a significant possibility the South Koreans will respond.鈥�
At the same time, analysts expect North Korea to increase tensions by conducting another underground test of a nuclear device. North Korea conducted nuclear tests twice previously 鈥� in 2006 and 2009 鈥� soon after test-firing long-range missiles.
A third nuclear test would 鈥渇it in with a familiar pattern," says Tony Namkung, a scholar and consultant who visited North Korea twice this month 鈥� first with Eric Schmidt, the Google executive chairman, and again with executives from the Associated Press, for which he serves as a consultant on its bureau in Pyongyang.
Mr. Namkung worries that the next test will be more advanced than the previous two. Many analysts believe the device will use highly enriched uranium, not the plutonium at the core of previous devices.
Still, he senses that 鈥渢hey鈥檙e loosening up in Pyongyang,鈥� creating a freer atmosphere. 鈥淭here are signs of change鈥� toward normal lifestyles, he says.
Kim Ki-sam, a former officer with South Korea鈥檚 National Intelligence Service, predicts the North will test a nuclear device before Park鈥檚 inauguration. 鈥淭heir tactic is to raise tension,鈥� says Mr. Kim. 鈥淭hen they compromise.鈥�
He believes 鈥渢he situation will be very bad to appearances,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut that doesn鈥檛 mean the overall situation will be worse.鈥澛�
Choi Jin-wook, a long-time North Korea expert at the Korean Institute of National Unification in Seoul, believes one central aim of North Korean strategists surrounding the young leader Kim Jong-un is a desire for respect. 鈥淭hey want to make clear they are a nuclear power,鈥� he says.聽
L. Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation in Washington, takes a somewhat sanguine view of the furor over North Korea. "It' s the North Korean playbook, it's what they've been doing for 20 years," he says.He believes North Korea indeed is getting ready for another nuclear test 鈥� the reason for the rhetoric 鈥� but does not take the escalation of the rhetoric very seriously. "We need to know what they've always been saying," he says. "It's cut and paste."聽