North Korea's removal of army chief seen as purge
Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho's fall from grace reveals deep rifts in the regime of young Kim Jong-un, who took over after the death of his long-ruling father in December.
Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho's fall from grace reveals deep rifts in the regime of young Kim Jong-un, who took over after the death of his long-ruling father in December.
North Korea鈥檚 highest career military commander was abruptly relieved of all his duties and positions Sunday, ostensibly due to illness. Pyongyang鈥檚 Korean Central News Agency offered that as the formal reason for relieving him in a high-level party meeting convened to talk about 鈥渢he organizational issue.鈥澛�
The use of that ominous phrase left no doubt among analysts that Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho, the chief of staff of the country鈥檚 1.2 million-man military establishment, had been purged. His fall from grace reveals deep rifts in the regime of 鈥渟upreme leader鈥� Kim Jong-un, who took over after the death of his long-ruling father, Kim Jong-il, in December.
The downfall of Mr. Ri raised the clear possibility of more power shifts, perhaps public, perhaps secret, as Kim Jong-un settles into a job for which he had no prior qualifications. While he has been making highly publicized appearances at military posts, factories, and farms, his real rapport with the aging men around him, most of them from the armed forces,聽is far from clear.
鈥淔asten your seat belts,鈥� says Donald Clark, noted Korea scholar and international studies director at Trinity University in San Antonio. 鈥淭here's turbulence ahead.鈥�
The Korean Central News Agency, reporting the purge Monday in a bland 100-word dispatch, said simply that 69-year-old Vice Marshal Ri had been relieved of his posts due to 鈥渉is illness." The dispatch pointedly listed all the posts that he had had to abandon, including membership in the presidium of the political bureau of the party鈥檚 central committee and, perhaps most important, the position of vice chairman of the party鈥檚 central military commission.
Analysts gave no credibility to the official explanation of 鈥渋llness鈥� considering that generals and senior officials often retain their posts well into their 70s and 80s. Cases in which top-level officials have simply retired, whether due to illness or old age, are virtually unknown.
Power struggle
The sense among analysts聽is that Ri鈥檚 apparent ouster represents the tip of the iceberg of a power struggle in which Kim Jong-un is battling to strengthen his grip over a leadership structure that may be in danger of fragmenting at the highest levels.聽Ri鈥檚 fall is especially shocking since he had been seen as the military leader whom Kim Jong-il, well before his death, had asked to smooth the transition of power to Kim Jong-un.
In that spirit, Ri was one of the seven highest-level military figures seen walking beside the large black Lincoln Continental carrying the coffin of Kim Jong-il. Ri, named a vice marshal nearly two years ago, was also seen with other high officials ranged beside Kim Jong-un on the balcony overlooking Kim Il-sung Square in central Pyongyang April 15 during a massive ceremony celebrating the 100th year anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong-un鈥檚 grandfather, Kim Il-sung.聽
Just as many analysts were beginning to believe that Kim Jong-un had assumed power with relatively little internal opposition, the evident ouster of Ri raises questions about the nature of the divisions among North Korea鈥檚 leadership. There are, however, no sure answers.
鈥淭he regime is not stable,鈥� says Choi Jin-wook, senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. 鈥淜im Jong-un has maybe 70 percent of the power of his father. The remaining 30 percent is an empty void.鈥�
Speculation focuses on the role of the inner figure sometimes seen to have the most influence 鈥� Jang Song-thaek, vice chairman of the national defense commission and husband of Kim Jong-il鈥檚 younger sister. Mr. Jang has often been mentioned as likely to be exercising the greatest influence over Kim Jong-un, believed to be in his late 20s and inexperienced in party affairs and government.
Ri鈥檚 dismissal suggested a gulf between the leadership of the armed forces and that of the party and the government. A career military man, Ri was often assumed to聽harbor doubts about the rise to high rank of a number of people with no military background.
Kim Jong-il before he died gave the rank of general to Kim Jong-un and his wife. Another nonmilitary man, Choe Yong-hae, also given the rank of general, has risen to the post of chief of the political bureau of the army, making him a highly influential figure over the armed forces with daily direct access to Kim Jong-un.
Another sign of the internal struggle is that U Dong-chuk, the general who was widely viewed as running the national security agency, vanished from sight four months ago 鈥� three months after he was seen as one of the seven generals walking beside Kim Kong-il鈥檚 hearse.
Analysts are far from certain, though, if Kim Jong-un is gaining or losing in the struggle. 鈥淲e wonder if Ri鈥檚 dismissal means weakness or strength,鈥� says Ha Tae-keung,聽president of Open Radio for North Korea, which broadcasts by shortwave from Seoul聽into the North. 鈥淎s far as I know, Ri was number two next to Kim Jong-un.鈥�
Mr. Ha, now a member of South Korea's National Assembly from the ruling conservative party, believes that 鈥減eople around Kim Jong-un envied him"聽鈥� that is, Vice Marshal Ri.
Ha interprets the North Korean report of discussion of 鈥渁n organizational issue鈥� as reflecting deep differences. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not an organizational problem,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a political problem.鈥澛�