海角大神

Never in recent Chinese history has such a senior Communist Party leader fallen so dramatically and so publicly from grace.

But it was the manner of Bo Xilai鈥檚 sudden political demise, rather than the reasons behind it, that augurs the greatest changes for China鈥檚 secretive one party rule, say Chinese analysts.

Detailed openly step by step on blogs and on fellow party leaders鈥� lips, Mr. Bo鈥檚 burnout has shattered the carefully cultivated myth of unity at the pinnacle of Chinese power.

For 20 years, says Peking University politics professor Zhang Jian, 鈥渢here has been a basic consensus in the party 鈥� that factional struggles should never rock the ship. But the way the scandal unfolded and was managed may signal the beginning of the loss of that consensus.鈥�

Bo, until recently a rising star in the political firmament here who clearly had his sights set on one of the nine top posts in the ruling Communist Party, was replaced as party secretary of Chongqing, a mega-city in southwestern China, the official news agency Xinhua announced Thursday. The sacking appeared to put an end to his political ambitions.

His prospects had been dimmed since bloggers revealed five weeks ago 鈥� in posts supported by photographs 鈥� that Bo鈥檚 hand-picked police chief and right-hand man, Wang Lijun, had been escorted by police away from the US consulate in Chengdu.

Whether he went to the consulate seeking asylum or for another purpose has not been disclosed. But rather than blacking out all news of the scandal, local and national officials fed it, announcing first that Mr. Wang was undergoing 鈥渧acation style medical treatment鈥� and then revealing that Wang had spent a whole night at the consulate and was under investigation.

President Hu Jintao was widely reported last week as describing Wang as a 鈥渢raitor,鈥� which bode ill for his mentor, and on Wednesday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao banged the last nail into Bo鈥檚 coffin with some聽blunt criticism of his political rival at a press conference 鈥� an extremely unusual public assault on a fellow leader.

To the eyes of some observers the revelations on Weibo, China鈥檚 most popular social media platform, bore the hallmarks of an anti-Bo campaign by his rivals. 鈥淧olitical factions can use Weibo to create and manipulate public opinion,鈥� points out Wu Qiang, who teaches politics at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 鈥淎ny user can be a deep throat.鈥�

聽鈥淭he top authorities had the option of deleting all the Weibo posts and ordering the media not to mention Wang Lijun,鈥� adds Professor Zhang. 鈥淭he fact that they did not means that maybe, as competition has got fierce among the top leadership, there has been a loss of consensus鈥� among them.

Bo Xilai courted controversy

Bo, a member of the 25-strong Politburo of the Communist Party, courted controversy with both the substance of his rule in Chongqing and his personal style.

He made his name with a harsh crackdown on organized crime in Chongqing (entrusted to police chief Wang,) well publicized welfare policies benefiting the poor, a predilection for more state intervention in the local economy and a campaign stirring nostalgia for the days of Mao Zedong with organized sing-alongs of 鈥渞ed songs鈥� from the Mao era.

This approach, which became known as the 鈥淐hongqing model鈥� of development, appeared initially to enjoy Beijing鈥檚 backing; Chongqing is under direct central government jurisdiction and several top leaders visited Bo鈥檚 city in a show of support.

But over time, the widely popular anti-mafia campaign came under closer scrutiny, which prompted charges that it had largely been camouflage for an attack on private businessmen.

鈥淭he principal and basic target of the anti-mafia campaign in Chongqing was to weaken and seize private businesses and entrepreneurs and use the profits from this to strengthen state-owned companies and the local budget,鈥� wrote Tong Zhiwei, a professor at Shanghai鈥檚 East China University of Political Science and Law, in a report he recently submitted to the central government.

鈥淭he most prominent result of the campaign was to strip large numbers of entrepreneurs of their fortunes, their homes, and their families,鈥� he added, in a damning indictment of Bo鈥檚 policy.

Victims have claimed they were tortured, and lawyers complained that courts trying suspects ignored legal procedure. Bo鈥檚 approach to 鈥渟trengthening social control came to be seen as authoritarian,鈥� according to Professor Wu.

Bo Xilai's style

At the same time, Bo鈥檚 brash and flamboyant political style, often branded populist and overtly ambitious, set him apart from his peers at the top of the party who have all made a virtue of caution and conservatism.

鈥淗is personal style, the way he stood out, was the main reason for his failure,鈥� says Zhang. 鈥淭hat really angered a lot of his potential colleagues because nobody knew what he would do if he got onto the Standing Committee of the Politburo鈥� when new members are chosen at the next party congress this autumn.

鈥淲hat if he launched an anticorruption campaign against them?鈥� his peers must have been wondering, according to Zhang. 鈥淗e is such an unpredictable figure, and unpredictability is loathed by everyone except him鈥� at the top of the party.

Bo鈥檚 dismissal, though, could complicate the succession struggle, as different factions promote their candidates for the next Standing Committee. If Bo had indeed been tapped for one of the seven seats up for grabs, as many believe, 鈥渢here is now a vacancy,鈥� Zhang points out. 鈥淭here will be a lot of speculation, campaigning, and bargaining. The struggle at the top will get fiercer than before.鈥澛�