海角大神

A version of this post ran on the聽AS/COA聽site. The views expressed are the author's own.

From a US presidential candidate鈥檚 controversial visit to Mexico City in August 2016 to the Central Bank鈥檚 attempts to stop the free fall of the peso, Mexico has been trying to figure out how to prepare itself for a Trump presidency. In fact, it鈥檚 been a veritable round of 鈥渉e said/he said,鈥� as Donald Trump repeatedly insists that Mexico will pay for a border wall and President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto repeatedly insists that it won鈥檛.

The same thing happened again on Jan. 11, during Mr. Trump鈥檚 first 鈥� and possibly his only 鈥撀爌ress conference聽as US president-elect, when he said, 鈥淢exico in some form, and there are many different forms, will reimburse us ... for the cost of the wall.鈥�

In remarks a few hours later, Mr. Pe帽a Nieto said that Mexico will not do so, nor will it 鈥渁ccept anything that goes against our dignity as a country.鈥� He went on to聽outline specific areas聽that he said would be a part of future negotiations with a Trump administration: arms trafficking, immigration, border infrastructure investment, remittances, and trade.聽

These are the areas covered in Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 speech, as well as the issues underlying each one.

1. Stemming the flow of illicit weapons from the United States into Mexico

Lax gun-control laws in the US Southwest lead to a relentless聽flow of illicit weapons聽into Mexico, fueling the country鈥檚 violent drug war. From 2009 to 2014, Mexico traced more than聽73,500 illegal firearms聽鈥� about 70 percent of those seized 鈥� back to the United States, per a 2016 US Government Accountability Office report. Given Mexico鈥檚 more restrictive聽gun laws, Mexican officials have repeatedly called on Washington to help stop gun trafficking, and the government of former Mexican President Felipe Calder贸n went so far as to place a聽billboard聽made of crushed guns near the border proclaiming, 鈥淣o more weapons.鈥�

The 2004 expiration of the US assault weapons ban is of particular concern for Mexico; nearly one in five weapons seized at Mexican crime scenes is an assault weapon smuggled from the United States, according to a聽2016 letter聽from US Congressman Eliot L. Engel [D] of New York.

2. Seeking a shared role in the flow of undocumented migrants

Trump made undocumented immigration and promises of mass deportations a central campaign point. However, Pe帽a Nieto noted that his country faces the burden of being a crossing point for migrants from around the world trying to make it to the United States, citing as an example the presence of some聽4,500 Haitian refugees聽currently in Mexico. Additionally, in the first seven months of 2016 alone, nearly聽8,000 Africans and Asians聽presented themselves to Mexican immigration authorities 鈥� a rate nearly four times the figure for all of 2014.

In recent years, Mexico has also聽played a direct role, with US backing, to stem the flow of Central Americans fleeing violence in their own countries and heading to the United States. Mexico deported roughly 150,000 migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in 2015, which marks a聽44 percent increase聽over the prior year, according to Pew Research.

3. Increased investment in border infrastructure and technology

Modernizing聽the US-Mexico border has been a top priority of the bilateral High Level Economic Dialogue. While discussion of a border wall has much to do with security, billions of dollars worth of goods and millions of people cross the US-Mexican border each year, despite often having to suffer through聽long wait times.

4. Maintaining the free flow of remittances

There鈥檚 plenty of speculation about how Trump could make good on his promise to make Mexico pay 鈥� or reimburse US taxpayers聽鈥撀爁or a wall, one concern being whether he would seize or tax the money Mexican immigrants send home. While there are questions about how this could聽legally聽take place,聽it鈥檚 no idle threat given that Mexicans sent聽$25 billion home in 2015聽and that remittances聽exceed the value of the country鈥檚 oil exports. In November, when Trump won the US election, remittance rates to Mexico saw their biggest spike in over a decade, hitting nearly聽$2.4 billion聽鈥� up almost a quarter compared with a year earlier.

5. Securing commerce 鈥� and looking beyond the United States

Since the 1994 implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), bilateral聽US-Mexico trade has more than quintupled. While Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of NAFTA, Mexican officials have said they would be open to modernizing, but not renegotiating, aspects of it. In Wednesday鈥檚 speech, Pe帽a Nieto not only called for securing investment and trade with Canada and the United States, but also alluded to聽Trump鈥檚 Twitter threats of automakers聽with US investments,聽saying, 鈥淲e reject any intent to influence investment decisions through fear or threats.鈥�

The president also suggested that Mexico, which sends roughly 80 percent of its exports to the United States, would look to deepen trade relations with other countries, including Latin American economies such as Argentina and Brazil, by forging ties with Asia via the G20 and the Pacific Alliance, and by prioritizing a trade deal with the European Union. 聽

Carin Zissis is editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online, the website of the Americas Society and Council of the Americas.