海角大神

A version of this post ran on聽American University's Center for Latin American & Latino Studies AULA Blog. The views expressed are the authors' own.

In Latin America and elsewhere, the world is undergoing tectonic movements that indicate the birth of a new world order with new rules of play.聽

For much of the past decade, dynamism in world commerce and finance has been shifting from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific. While the international economy has shown fragility and the developed economies 鈥� particularly the European Union and the United States 鈥� have shown slow growth since the crisis of 2008, China and the emerging economies of the Asian-Pacific region have experienced sustained growth.聽

China, now the second biggest economy in the world, has been the driver of that growth and, according to most projections, is poised to overtake the United States as the biggest. After several centuries in which power has been concentrated in the West, the emergence of new powers in a multi-polar world will naturally bring about changes in the norms and rules governing the international agenda.

In Latin America and other regions, there is growing awareness of this process 鈥� with China and its own version of globalization at its center. The region has witnessed the paralysis of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the United States as well as US President-elect Donald Trump鈥檚 declaration that he will withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as part of a broader anti-globalization policy.聽

Trump鈥檚 announcement drew two different reactions from TPP country leaders at the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima late last month.聽 One was the express decision to proceed with TPP even without the United States, and the other was a clear receptivity to Chinese President Xi Jinping鈥檚 invitation that they join regional economic groups that he is pushing 鈥� the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.

• Both agreements explicitly exclude the United States and abandon norms customarily pushed in free trade by the West. They emphasize reducing tariffs and give no consideration to labor and environmental regulations and non-tariff measures.

• They complement China鈥檚 鈥渙ne belt, one road鈥� initiative, a modern-day revitalization of the Silk Road creating trade links between China鈥檚 western regions with Russia, Central Asia, and eventually to Europe, developing land and maritime routes along the way. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization 鈥� an economic and security pact linking China, Russia, four Central Asian nations, and now welcoming India and Pakistan 鈥� is explicitly linked to RCEP.

Washington鈥檚 pending rejection of TPP eliminates a central part of President Obama鈥檚 鈥減ivot鈥� strategy to counter China鈥檚 rapidly expanding influence in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea, but it also has implications for Latin America and the Caribbean as China moves in rapidly to fill the void left by US withdrawal.聽

While President-elect Trump has pledged to 鈥渞enegotiate鈥� the North American Free Trade Agreement 鈥� which he called 鈥減robably the worst trade deal ever agreed to in the history of the world鈥� 鈥� China last month presented to Latin America a detailed document proposing a new era in relations with 鈥渃omprehensive cooperation鈥� in all areas and reaffirming a 鈥渟trategic association鈥� with the region.聽 In sharp contrast with the incoming US President鈥檚 views of Latin America, Beijing calls Latin America and the Caribbean 鈥渁 land full of vitality and hope,鈥� praises the region鈥檚 鈥渕ajor role in safeguarding world peace and development,鈥� and calls it 鈥渁 rising force in the global landscape.鈥澛�

While some analysts suggest that globalization is slowing if not ending, these developments more strongly indicate that it is rather taking on a new form within a new world order that clashes with the visions and values of the West. We appear to be transitioning into a world that is genuinely multi-polar with globalization under new rules.

Andr茅s Serbin is president of the聽Coordinadora Regional de Investigaciones Econ贸micas y Sociales聽(CRIES), a Latin American think tank. This article is adapted from an essay in聽笔别谤蹿颈濒,听based in Buenos Aires.