海角大神

This week Venezuela鈥檚 leading polling firm Datan谩lisis released numbers showing a sustained slide in support for President Nicolas Maduro and Chavismo more broadly. The numbers likely explain the government鈥檚 apparent willingness to dialogue with the opposition over the past month. The closed door dialogues have yet to bear important agreements. But insiders report they are going well.

President Maduro鈥檚 popularity has dropped in every measurement since November 2013 and at 37 percent is at聽the lowest it has been during his presidency. This is accompanied by a聽59.2 percent disapproval. Nevertheless Maduro still has strong support among those who identify with the government and is still the most popular leader within chavismo.

For the first time since October, Henrique Capriles has higher numbers than Nicolas Maduro. Leopoldo L贸pez has practically identical numbers to Mr. Capriles. However, when asked 鈥渨ho should be the leader of the opposition" and shown the names of leaders 鈥渘one of the above鈥� gets the most votes (28.4 percent). Opposition coalition聽Mesa de la Unidad Democratica has slightly better numbers than the Socialist Party. Identification with the latter has declined steadily since 2012.

There is 79.5 percent pessimism regarding the direction of the country, which is at its highest in 10 years ... The number one problem now is scarcities, with 32.5 percent, surpassing crime and violence. Two thirds do not think the government can solve the problems the country is facing in the next 12 months. 74 percent see the political situation as unstable. Incredibly,聽59.1 percent (including 15 percent of government supporters) think Maduro should not complete his term聽(39 percent in 2014 (presumably by resigning), 20.1 percent through recall referendum in 2016).