海角大神

A roundup of news and analysis.

The capture of one of the Western Hemisphere鈥檚 most-wanted drug traffickers over the weekend ended a 13-year manhunt in Mexico and the United States. As US federal prosecutors now push to extradite Joaqu铆n Guzm谩n, known as 鈥淓l Chapo鈥� or "Shorty," there is concern that his arrest could lead to a spike in violence across Mexico as rival drug cartels jostle for turf.聽

Whether Mr. Guzm谩n's arrest will lead to bloody, internecine cartel warfare in Mexico could depend on how the landscape of organized crime has changed, analysts say.

鈥淭here is a feeling of uncertainty, a worry of what could come next,鈥� journalist Javier Valdez in Sinaloa state told Time over the weekend after Guzm谩n's arrest.

Guzm谩n is the face of the Sinaloa Cartel, named after the Pacific Coast state where the group originated. Under his leadership, their influence has grown far beyond Mexico, reaching deeper into Latin America, the US, and, by some accounts, Europe and Asia. Guzm谩n rose to international notoriety in 2001 after escaping from a high-security Mexican prison by allegedly bribing prison guards and getting smuggled out in a laundry basket. The US offered a nearly $5 million reward for his capture.聽

Often when a cartel leader is eliminated from the equation, infighting can quickly follow. At the same time, competing cartels may try to muscle into their territory, resulting in violence and bloodshed. According to Time:

But not everyone buys the idea that eliminating the head of a Mexican drug cartel automatically triggers widespread infighting. Steven Dudley, codirector of InSight Crime, which writes on organized crime in the Americas, said that a 鈥渃hange in the dynamics and makeup of the underworld [in Mexico] has been coming for a long time. What were once five major cartels in the late 1990s had morphed into 80 criminal groups operating in nearly every state by late 2012.鈥�

This doesn鈥檛 mean the next steps in Mexico鈥檚 fight against drug violence and trafficking will be easy, writes Mr. Dudley. He notes that the Sinaloa Cartel is still alive and kicking, with a "sophisticated structure" spread across a large swath of Mexico.

"But its power is waning. And it is difficult to imagine Guzman passing the torch to anyone from a younger generation, at least one that could successfully restore it to its former status," Dudley writes.

Guzm谩n was captured in the Pacific beach town of Mazatlan on Saturday morning in an operation run by the Mexican Marines, based on intelligence gathered by the US Drug Enforcement Administration. No shots were fired, and for many, this arrest signaled concrete progress in Mexico鈥檚 long fight against drug trafficking and violence. More than 70,000 people have died as a result of drug-related violence since 2006, when former President Felipe Calder贸n unleashed the military to fight traffickers head on.

The arrest was a huge boost for Mexican President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto, now in his second year in office. 鈥淭his is the most significant arrest of a drug trafficker in decades,鈥� Mike Vigil, former head of international operations for the US Drug Enforcement Administration, told Time.

鈥淐hapo Guzman was definitely the biggest trafficker in Latin America, and in my opinion in the world.鈥�