海角大神

Reinaldo Hern谩ndez just celebrated his 86th birthday in the dark.

The lack of fuel and incessant power outages hitting the island of Cuba since the United States imposed an oil blockade in late January have made quotidian tasks like traveling on public transportation, accessing health care, or even keeping food refrigerated, all wildly difficult.

鈥淚t鈥檚 very sad to reach this point in life where one might expect, let鈥檚 say, some comfort ... some care,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd for all of that to vanish.鈥�

Mr. Hern谩ndez has lived through a dictatorship, a revolution, and the various stages of Communist Cuba鈥檚 evolution. That includes the dire economic hardship following the collapse of the Soviet Union, a vital benefactor of the Cuban government. But people today are reaching their limit, he says. The octogenarian鈥檚 relatives now living abroad pooled their money this year to gift Mr. Hern谩ndez with a small generator.

鈥淓veryone is starting to agree,鈥� he says, seated in a once-grand, high-ceilinged Havana apartment in need of a fresh coat of paint. He shares the place with his daughter and adult grandson. 鈥淭he people of Cuba 鈥� I鈥檓 almost shouting this 鈥� they need change.鈥�

To be sure, Cubans still hold a range of opinions about their government. But one important shift in recent months is a new willingness to speak openly about the need for political change, says Michael Bustamante, a Cuba expert at the University of Miami. This is something that has been building over the past six years 鈥� 鈥渁 slow drip,鈥� he says.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a nihilism that鈥檚 taken root,鈥� says Dr. Bustamante. 鈥淧eople are ready for something that鈥檚 dramatic and that can change the equation, even if it comes with big risks.鈥�

Careful complaining in public

Those speaking out against Cuba鈥檚 Communist government risked execution in its early days, and today still face imprisonment or torture.

The social contract between Cuba鈥檚 government and its people in Cuba was based on a 鈥渃radle to grave鈥� system that meant government-subsidized education, health care, and culture.

鈥淵ou were taken care of. And the price was political loyalty,鈥� says Katrin Hansing, an anthropologist at the City University of New York who studies migration, inequality, and memory in Cuba.

This arrangement between the party and the people has frayed over time, but it remained nominally intact until recently. Now that public services and access to daily necessities are harder to come by because of U.S. pressure, old inhibitions around speaking out are fading.

The government 鈥渉asn鈥檛 known how to solve the country鈥檚 problems and they have accumulated over time,鈥� says Sergio Almaguer, who is in his 60s and works at a nongovernmental organization in Havana. 鈥淲e鈥檙e paying the price for this incompetence.鈥�

Cubans began complaining publicly in the 1990s, during the so-called Special Period of economic hardship after the fall of the Soviet Union.

鈥淪tanding in line and kind of saying something negative about wait time 鈥� it was seen as pretty critical,鈥� says Dr. Hansing. 鈥淧eople had real problems and there was a collective sense of solidarity in carefully complaining.鈥�

But the current economic situation has created a new willingness to openly voice grievances, even if the critiques are about the situation and not lodged directly at the communist government. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 where the nuance lies,鈥� says Dr. Hansing.

Pressure mounted first with the COVID-19 pandemic and then a bungled 2021 currency plan that drove up inflation. A decaying electric grid has led to increasing blackouts. Through this period, Cubans have gained broader access to the internet.

That has allowed ordinary citizens to see the repressive responses from their government, including in July 2021, after widespread public uprisings sparked by hunger and frustration. More than 1,000 people were arrested. Most of them were young, and many are still imprisoned.

The 鈥淐uban state has lost its monopoly on information,鈥� Dr. Bustamante says.

And, then, there鈥檚 Venezuela.

鈥淧eople are anxious for change鈥�

The United States reoriented its foreign policy after President Donald Trump began his second term.

In January, the U.S. captured and ousted Venezuela鈥檚 Nicol谩s Maduro. Last month, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Iran鈥檚 supreme leader.

Amid the geopolitical uncertainty, a speedboat carrying 10 Cuban exiles from the U.S. 鈥� including at least two with American citizenship 鈥� exchanged fire with the coast guard off Cuba鈥檚 shoreline, killing four. The six survivors were charged with terrorism for what Cuban officials say was a plan to sow chaos on the island. Loved ones of those captured say they were trying to instigate much-needed change in their home country.

鈥淲hat I鈥檓 hearing more of from people inside Cuba is 鈥榬ather than hurt me, why don鈥檛 they just send in the F-16s,鈥欌�� says Dr. Bustamante.

At the same time, new pressure is mounting on Cuba, which lost a key partner with the removal of Mr. Maduro. And Cuba has seen other allies, such as Mexico, pause critical oil shipments to the island under U.S. pressure. Tourism, a crucial economic engine for Cuba, never recovered after the pandemic. For three years straight, the island鈥檚 economy has contracted. And an estimated 2.5 million Cubans 鈥� many young and educated 鈥� have fled since 2020.

This is all in addition to a six-decade-long U.S. economic embargo on the island.

Since late January, schools and state workplaces have been opening only sporadically. Several international airlines have canceled flights.

鈥淵ou have to buy food little by little,鈥� says Estefany Hern谩ndez, an industrial design student at the University of Havana, who no longer spends money on meat because she worries about it going bad during a power outage. She started riding a bike to get around the city after public transportation offerings dwindled, and says her university classes are frequently canceled.

鈥淲e live in fear. Who knows how many days the power will be out?鈥� she says. 鈥淧eople are anxious for change, especially young people.鈥�

The government blames the U.S. embargo for the situation. Despite encouragement from allies over the years to open its economy a la Vietnam or China, Cuban officials have stuck with a strict state-controlled model. 鈥淭hey thought they鈥檇 be weakened politically and ideologically by economic reform, and that would present a problem for them, given their proximity to the United States,鈥� says Cuban economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago.

What happens next for Cuba could depend on Washington. Members of Secretary of State Marco Rubio鈥檚 team have reportedly met with Cuban officials, including the grandson of former President Ra煤l Castro. President Trump told reporters at the White House recently that Havana has 鈥渘o money, no anything right now.鈥�

鈥淢aybe we鈥檒l have a friendly takeover of Cuba,鈥� he added.

Cuban President Miguel D铆az-Canel said on March 3 that his country鈥檚 private sector needs more autonomy, calling for 鈥渦rgent鈥� change to Cuba鈥檚 economic model. The statement was seen as a direct response to U.S. pressure, though Cuban leaders have promised reforms over the years without following through.

The Cuban government might be feeling the heat, but it鈥檚 also spent more than 60 years as though it was under siege, says Dr. Hansing. 鈥淵ou operate differently if a war-like mentality has always been your point of reference.鈥�

Much like the shift with citizens鈥� willingness to call for change inside Cuba today, Mr. Rubio recently had something of a change in rhetoric, as well.

The secretary and former senator, who came up among Miami鈥檚 conservative Cuban diaspora, has long called for a political overhaul on the island. But at last week鈥檚 Caribbean Community conference on St. Kitts, he appeared to nod to the fact that change in Cuba might look different from other examples this administration has called attention to this year: 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 have to change from one day to the next,鈥� Mr. Rubio said.

Whitney Eulich reported from Mexico City; Rudy Cabrera Arcia, from Havana.