海角大神

Thousands of demonstrators clad in canary-yellow soccer jerseys thronged Copacabana Beach this month in support of a leader accused of conspiring to overthrow Brazil鈥檚 young democracy.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro was charged in February with plotting to carry out a coup to remain in power after his 2022 election loss to President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva. He could soon be tried by the Supreme Court, a decision expected March 25 or 26.

Many in Brazil and in the international community have celebrated the legal moves as a sign of the strength and resilience of the country鈥檚 democratic institutions, working to hold a former president to account. But some fear that relying on the justice system alone is unlikely to heal Brazil鈥檚 deep political and societal divisions, and could potentially exacerbate them.

鈥淭here will be increased polarization as a result of the trial, if it happens,鈥� says Anthony Pereira, director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University.

鈥淲e鈥檝e seen what happened in the U.S. where the attempt to prosecute [Donald] Trump failed,鈥� he says, underscoring the high stakes of these charges for Brazilian democracy. Failure to hold antidemocratic actions to account paves the way for a deeper erosion of democracy, Dr. Pereira warns, and Brazil is still reeling from the assault on its institutions.

Justice 鈥撀爋r a 鈥渏udicial dictatorship鈥�?

Mr. Bolsonaro, his former running mate Gen. Walter Braga Netto, and 32 others have been charged with leading a criminal organization that plotted to violently overthrow the results of the 2022 presidential election. The charges say the coup only failed due to a lack of support among the military鈥檚 top brass. The plot, outlined in an 884-page police report made public last November, included a plan by special forces military personnel to assassinate Lula, as the president is popularly called, and his vice president and a Supreme Court justice.

President between 2019 and 2022, Mr. Bolsonaro is a former army captain who often praised Brazil鈥檚 1964-1985 military dictatorship, chipped away at the country鈥檚 democratic safeguards, and repeatedly questioned without proof the reliability of Brazil鈥檚 electronic voting system. He never formally conceded to Lula.

But he also commanded broad appeal among voters disillusioned with Lula鈥檚 Workers鈥� Party, which held power for over a decade and for many became synonymous with corruption and economic mismanagement. Some chose to overlook Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 less palatable views on women and minorities, while others embraced his conservative discourse that put God, family, and nation first. Even after spreading misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic and overseeing one of the highest global death tolls, he only lost reelection by a tiny margin, with 49.1% of the vote. In a recent poll, 41% of respondents said they鈥檇 vote for him, while 47% said the same of Lula.

Mr. Bolsonaro categorically denies ever having supported a coup and claims he is the victim of political persecution orchestrated by the Lula government, with the backing of the Supreme Court, which he refers to as a 鈥渏udicial dictatorship.鈥�

This narrative resonates with his supporters, who are calling for amnesty for the nearly 400 people serving prison sentences for their involvement in the Jan. 8, 2023, attacks. Bolsonaristas see hope in the U.S.: Donald Trump faced a similar case to that of Mr. Bolsonaro, and yet he was reelected president, and he pardoned those involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riots.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a big yarn, an untruthful narrative,鈥� says handyman Fl谩vio da Cunha of the allegations that Mr. Bolsonaro 鈥� whom he believes has been sent by God to fix the country 鈥� tried to mount a coup. 鈥淭rump came back, and I believe Bolsonaro will return, too,鈥� he says.

Mr. da Cunha was among the thousands of demonstrators who welcomed Mr. Bolsonaro with cries of 鈥�惭颈迟辞鈥� (legend) at Copacabana Beach on March 16. Many held signs reading 鈥渁mnesty now,鈥� calling for the pardon of Jan. 8 rioters. Pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers are currently trying to push a bill to this effect through Congress.

Behind the stage where Mr. Bolsonaro was speaking, one resident shared a counter message: 鈥渘o amnesty鈥� read the words posted on windows.

If Mr. Bolsonaro is convicted, he could face up to 40 years in jail, although Dr. Pereira warns that his imprisonment is not guaranteed even with a guilty sentence. 鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 underestimate the Brazilian elite鈥檚 capacity to find compromise,鈥� he says of Bolsonaro allies still in office.

Brazil has a record of trying to forgive and forget: An amnesty law passed during the military dictatorship meant that no one has ever been held accountable for the regime鈥檚 abuses. Progressive Brazilians say they are determined not to let history repeat. 鈥淭here cannot be amnesty for a coup attempt,鈥� says Vit贸ria Gonzalez, a sociologist who attended Carnival celebrations earlier in March with the 鈥渘o amnesty鈥� message emblazoned across her costume. 鈥淚t is vital that the judiciary go after those involved so that we can move forward.鈥�

A struggle for democracy

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 hopes of a political comeback are complicated by a June 2023 electoral court decision. It found him guilty of spreading misinformation during the 2022 presidential campaign and has barred him from running for office until 2030.

But that hasn鈥檛 prevented him from suggesting he will be a candidate in October 2026 presidential elections. 鈥淭o hold elections without Bolsonaro would be to deny democracy in Brazil,鈥� he told cheering fans in Copacabana this month.

鈥淭here is still a large stratum of the population that trusts in Bolsonarismo, and could organize to back another name,鈥� says Carolina Botelho, a political scientist and associate researcher at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. 鈥淭he far-right camp exists. It has a nonnegligible proportion of the electorate, a consistent, cohesive group that keeps itself alive.鈥�

Sergio Galv茫o, a former soldier, says he took part in the Jan. 8 uprising and claims the widely documented reports of violence were a setup to incriminate Mr. Bolsonaro. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to keep the movement alive, with or without Bolsonaro,鈥� he says from Copacabana Beach.

For Dr. Botelho, the debate around the court case only makes one thing clear: The struggle for Brazilian democracy is not over.