海角大神

Colombian President Gustavo Petro appears to have backed down from a heated 鈥� and very public 鈥� faceoff with U.S. President Donald Trump over deportation flights this past weekend.

But, contrary to media accounts and the president鈥檚 own press office, that doesn鈥檛 necessarily mean that Trump has 鈥渨on.鈥�

鈥淭his was round one of what is going to be a very drawn-out fight,鈥� says Sergio Guzm谩n, director of risk consultancy firm Colombia Risk Analysis.

Mr. Trump has called illegal immigration a national emergency, and in his focus on combating it, he鈥檚 enlisted the U.S. military鈥檚 help at both the border and in carrying out deportation flights.

Colombia blocked the arrival of two U.S. military airplanes flying deportees into the country early Sunday morning, with Mr. Petro labeling it inhumane and calling for a process that treats deportees with 鈥渄ignity and respect.鈥� Colombia received some 14,000 deportees from the U.S. between January and December 2024, but this was the first known attempt on a military plane.

A flurry of tweets throughout the day escalated between the two leaders, with Mr. Trump threatening first 25%, then 50% tariffs on all Colombian imports. Mr. Petro announced his own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to Colombia, also promising to raise them to 50%.

But Sunday night saw both sides say an agreement had been reached. The White House said in a statement that Colombia had 鈥渁greed to all of President Trump鈥檚 terms,鈥� including the use of military flights.

Meanwhile, a representative from the Colombian presidential office said that Colombia 鈥渉as the presidential plane ready to facilitate the return of Colombians who were going to arrive in the country this morning on deportation flights.鈥� The statement did not address 鈥� or contradict 鈥� future U.S. plans to use military aircraft in deportations.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not a question of removals鈥�

Latin American countries have been bracing themselves for Mr. Trump鈥檚 promised mass deportations, but Mr. Petro鈥檚 confrontation with Mr. Trump took many by surprise both in terms of its rapid escalation 鈥� and in how Mr. Petro appeared to concede under U.S. threats. Although the Colombian leader鈥檚 unusually public diplomacy could mean more repercussions from the U.S., he drew attention to recent developments in U.S. deportations, the use of U.S. military aircraft, which could generate more pushback from regional leaders down the line.

鈥淲e鈥檒l see more questioning and possibly objections to the use of the military to augment the U.S.鈥檚 ability to deport,鈥� says Eric Sigmon, an analyst and former migration expert in the U.S. government. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a question of removals,鈥� but of how different arms of the government are getting involved in border security in new ways.

As many Latin American countries, including Colombia and Mexico, know firsthand, the involvement of the armed forces in civilian policing can often lead to a jump in human rights abuses.

鈥淭he military isn鈥檛 trained for鈥� deportations, says Mr. Sigmon.

Mexico refused a request last week to let a U.S. military aircraft land with migrants, though with much less fanfare. Two U.S. military aircraft landed in Guatemala with roughly 160 deportees on Friday. Brazil鈥檚 foreign ministry over the weekend condemned what it called 鈥渄egrading treatment鈥� of Brazilians after migrants were handcuffed on their deportation flight from the U.S., and in which some reported 鈥渕istreatment鈥� during the flight.

Honduras has called an emergency meeting of the Community of Latin and Caribbean States on Thursday to discuss migration and U.S. deportations.

鈥淚t will be an opportunity to address strategic issues for the region, such as cooperation on migration, protection of human rights,鈥� said a statement from Colombia鈥檚 presidential office Sunday night.

鈥淧etro wanted to become the head of the global resistance on Trump,鈥� says Mr. Guzm谩n. 鈥淏ut he did it to great consequences for the country鈥檚 economy.鈥� Although the U.S. backed down from imposing sanctions, their language 鈥渟uggests that Trump can still sign them whenever he wants. It鈥檚 a sword hanging over us.鈥�