海角大神

By most counts, it鈥檚 a miracle that Guatemala鈥檚 President Bernardo Ar茅valo has been in office for nearly six months. The anti-corruption politician faced unprecedented legal challenges to his campaign last summer, a powerful attorney general tried to reverse his election victory, and three months of public demonstrations swamped the capital in efforts to ensure his inauguration.

But the heavy lift it took to get him into office, where he has promised to weed out corruption and strengthen his small Central American nation鈥檚 democracy, hasn鈥檛 eased. Citizens who spent months on the streets are starting to wonder when Mr. Ar茅valo will deliver on promised change. Complicating the situation, the attorney general, Mar铆a聽Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by 42 foreign countries including the U.S., is blocking his efforts at every turn.聽

鈥淭his is not a marathon,鈥� Mr. Ar茅valo said at an event on April 4, acknowledging the population鈥檚 frustration with slow progress on passing anti-corruption legislation. 鈥淚t is a game of chess,鈥� he said, referring to the fine-tuned strategy needed to confront the fact that his party has just 14% of the seats in Congress, and his agenda angers Guatemala鈥檚 historically powerful political and economic elite.聽

Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 struggles underscore how challenging it can be to fight corruption, despite widespread public support.

鈥淚t鈥檚 difficult for corruption to be your flag,鈥� says Marielos Chang, a political scientist and professor at Universidad del Valle in Guatemala. Solving it 鈥渋s complex and [so is] getting results that improve people鈥檚 quality of life.鈥�

Those who have successfully fought corruption in the past in Guatemala, says Ms. Chang, have had a solidly independent justice department, 鈥渁llowing them to prosecute major political figures鈥� without interference.

The president vs. the attorney general

Teamwork with the justice department and the attorney general is precisely what Mr. Ar茅valo lacks.

The central threat to his government and its anti-corruption promises is Ms. Porras. Last August, she tried to annul Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 votes following his electoral victory. Citizen pressure from the streets, the organization of Indigenous and rural communities, and an international community that closed ranks, together defended the country鈥檚 democracy.

The president has tried, unsuccessfully, to remove Ms. Porras from office.聽

鈥淭he dark cycle of Consuelo Porras must end now,鈥� Mr. Ar茅valo said in a national address on May 6. The next day, he delivered a bill to Congress that would allow him to dismiss the attorney general before the end of her four-year term in 2026. He needed 107 votes for his initiative to succeed, but only won 50, a resounding defeat and potentially a grave political misstep, experts say.

The vote 鈥渂enefited Porras, not only because she survived the threat of being removed from office, but because she grew stronger in the eyes of those who could be allies of [Movimiento] Semilla,鈥� Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 party, says Manuel Mel茅ndez-S谩nchez, a doctoral candidate in political science and researcher at Harvard University.

鈥淚t was a ... poor reading of the political times,鈥� says Ms. Chang. It turned an important fight against a scourge afflicting every level of the government into 鈥渟omething personal between two political figures,鈥� she says.

In mid-May, Ms. Porras presented an annual report on the public ministry鈥檚 work, surrounded by the heads of prosecutors鈥� offices from across the country, in a show of solidarity against the president鈥檚 pledges to enact big change in Guatemala.聽

Resistance to Mr. Ar茅valo comes from key actors and institutions that have deep interests in ensuring business as usual in Guatemala. They include many officials in the justice department and the courts, opposition parties in Congress, and powerful economic elites targeted by a now defunct, internationally-backed, anti-corruption body.聽

Mr. Ar茅valo says he knows Guatemalans are frustrated.聽

鈥淲ith the pieces it has on the [chess] board, the odds are that the government will lose,鈥� says Mr. Mel茅ndez-S谩nchez, because the聽president has not been set up for a fair match. The country is described as a 鈥渉ybrid regime,鈥澛燾ombining elements of formal democracy and authoritarianism,聽by The Economist Intelligence Unit鈥檚 Democracy Index. Guatemala is ranked 100th out of 160 countries in terms of its democratic health.

鈥淎 minefield of corruption鈥�

In his first month in office, Mr. Ar茅valo removed more than 1,300 people from government positions, either because they were not qualified for their posts, or because they had been given their jobs by previous administrations as political favors.

鈥淭he outgoing government left a minefield of corruption,鈥� says Mr.聽Mel茅ndez-S谩nchez.

In the coming months, Guatemala will begin selecting new members of its Supreme Court of Justice and Courts of Appeals. More than 180 positions will be filled by Congress and the new judges will serve five-year terms. The stakes are high: These magistrates could face future requests to withdraw Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 presidential immunity, something that could lead to his dismissal.聽

Adding to these challenges is that Movimiento Semilla is a young and relatively weak party. A few days after assuming the presidency, the Constitutional Court, the highest in Guatemala, ruled that Semilla, under investigation over how it was founded, cannot work as a bloc in Congress. That prevents the party鈥檚 legislators from serving on committees and thus limits its ability to influence the legislative agenda.聽

Corruption has long been a scourge in Central America, but recent studies show it is growing. The situation in Guatemala shows how it is not enough to defeat autocrats at the polls and assume power 鈥� there follows the complexity of cleaning up public institutions.聽

鈥淭he authoritarians, when they are defeated, leave these authoritarian enclaves that are precisely the ones Ar茅valo is fighting against,鈥� says Mr.聽Mel茅ndez-S谩nchez. It requires 鈥渟trategy.鈥�

And, crucially, patience.

Kelvin Jim茅nez, a lawyer for the indigenous Xinca Parliament, was part of the organization of nine Indigenous groups that protested for three months in front of the attorney general鈥檚 office last year. He is one of many citizens frustrated by the fact that Ms. Porras is still in office and that more progress has not been made in the fight against corruption.

But, he acknowledges, there have been some small improvements. This administration was the first to meet with Indigenous communities to draw up an agenda promoting social and environmental development, he says.聽

鈥淧erhaps we were not so aware of the seriousness of the institutional deterioration that鈥檚 been an obstacle to the government,鈥� Mr. Jim茅nez says. 鈥淭he population must continue to embrace a process of change鈥� even if it comes slowly.