海角大神

Across Latin America, it is Salvadorans who embrace democracy more than almost all of their peers do. Support for democratic governance in El Salvador stands at 73%, higher than in any country in the region except Uruguay.

Yet over the past five years of his presidency, Nayib Bukele has systematically weakened the pillars of democracy that this Central American nation has tried to build since the end of a civil war in 1992 鈥� and his approval remains sky-high. That鈥檚 in large part because he has ushered in newfound peace in a country riven by聽brutal gangs, violence, and extortion.

As Salvadorans head to the polls Feb. 4, with all indications that Mr. Bukele will win reelection, these paradoxes are on full display. They show the tensions between democratic governance and security, and, particularly in a young democracy, what a populace is willing to overlook for the sake of living without fear.

鈥淔or the majority of people here, democracy is synonymous with elections,鈥� not with independent institutions, says 脕lvaro Artiga Gonz谩lez, a political scientist at El Salvador鈥檚 Universidad Centroamericana.

The authorities improved security by deploying the army against criminal gangs, and resorting to mass arrests and extrajudicial killings. But the plan was 鈥渃reated by a government that won the popular vote. And people are satisfied with that,鈥� says Dr. Artiga.

A balancing act聽

When Pedro Rojas got a late-night visit from his daughter on New Year鈥檚 Eve in his small community east of San Salvador, it surfaced the dueling values in his own life.

His daughter鈥檚 holiday visit 鈥渨as such joy,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ecause for so long it was impossible.鈥�

Today 鈥渨e have security,鈥� says Mr. Rojas, who works at a local private school. 鈥淏ut at what cost?鈥�

Like so many, Mr. Rojas and his neighbors have lived under a reign of terror for most of the past decade, orchestrated by local gangs that successive governments failed to control.

Walking down the main road, bustling with churchgoers and food vendors,聽on a recent Sunday afternoon, Mr. Rojas ticks off some of the unspoken rules of the very recent past. He couldn鈥檛 say hello or acknowledge neighbors, and he wouldn鈥檛 dare answer a phone call or text message on the street for fear it could be construed as sharing information with an enemy.

He credits Mr. Bukele with tackling such obstacles to normal life.

In March 2022 the government declared a 鈥渟tate of exception,鈥� which has given sweeping powers to arrest and detain suspected criminals without warrants 鈥� or even evidence. More than 75,000 people have been arrested since,聽and today roughly 2% of the adult population is behind bars.

At the same time, Mr. Bukele has stacked the courts with allies who went on to 鈥渞einterpret鈥� the constitution to allow him to run for a second term. And he has gerrymandered to such an extent that the number of municipalities nationwide will shrink this spring from 262 to 44.聽

Mr. Rojas says he has tried to talk with his middle school students about squaring the government鈥檚 democratic credentials with its authoritarian tendencies. He is academic coordinator at聽the Colegio Cristiano Las Ca帽as, a humble, one-story concrete building, where he sees his job as 鈥渙rienting鈥� youth to think critically 鈥� not as telling them that democracy is weakening.

鈥淚s it good or bad鈥� that Bukele has concentrated power? he asks. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know that we鈥檒l truly know until we鈥檙e looking in the rearview mirror.鈥�

For Dr. Artiga, looking in the mirror is something El Salvador needs to do sooner rather than later. 鈥淲e have two clear examples of what [these changes] can mean over time: the case of Venezuela under [Hugo] Ch谩vez, and Nicaragua with Daniel Ortega,鈥� he says.

Today there鈥檚 鈥渮ero debate, zero analysis, zero discussion鈥� in the Legislative Assembly, which is controlled by Mr. Bukele鈥檚 party, says Eduardo Escobar, executive director of Acci贸n Ciudadana, a San Salvador-based nongovernmental organization promoting transparency. But that means that laws pass quickly and the president can effect change efficiently. 鈥淧eople are saying, 鈥楧emocracy wasn鈥檛 serving us before, but now it鈥檚 delivering!鈥� And for that they are satisfied, even if it鈥檚 against the universal concept鈥� of democracy, Mr. Escobar says.

The trade-offs

Nearly 82% of Salvadorans say they鈥檙e prepared to vote Mr. Bukele and his Nuevas Ideas party into a second presidential term, despite a constitutional ban on reelection.

But as the state of exception continues, support for Mr. Bukele could dip, says Ingrid Escobar, founder of Socorro Jur铆dico Humanitario, a local NGO.

鈥淭his is a relative peace. It鈥檚 costing us our human rights, freedom, and democracy,鈥� she tells the Monitor following a press conference where she publicly denounced the wrongful imprisonment under the state of exception of a young man, Marco Antonio Rivera, who is deaf and uses sign language to communicate.

He was detained in June for allegedly using gang symbols. Human rights advocates say the state has criminalized his disability.

The more innocent people are caught up in this militarized approach, denying them due process, the more society will think critically about the stakes and solutions, Ms. Escobar believes.

And many experts question what will happen once the state of exception is lifted. Civil liberties likely can鈥檛 be suspended indefinitely, and a policy that centers on imprisoning tens of thousands of people is prohibitively expensive.

鈥淭he gangs are a consequence, not the origin鈥� of El Salvador鈥檚 security challenges, says Mr. Escobar. 鈥淭here has been no government activity ... to attack inequality, poverty, or to generate opportunities, employment,鈥� he says.

Nearly 3.25 million Salvadorans 鈥� roughly half the population 鈥� face moderate to severe food insecurity, according to the United Nations. Between 2018 and 2022, the number of Salvadorans living in extreme poverty has risen.

For the mother of Mr. Rivera, the man detained for using sign language, just thinking about this weekend鈥檚 vote has her on the verge of tears.

鈥淲hen he was taken away, my son was wearing a Nuevas Ideas bracelet,鈥� identifying him as a supporter of Mr. Bukele鈥檚 party, she says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what the answer is, how to vote. I鈥檓 asking God to intervene.鈥�