海角大神

El Salvador鈥檚 Nayib Bukele is running for reelection in February 鈥� something unimaginable when he first took office in 2019.

As president, Mr. Bukele concentrated the power of nearly all political institutions into his party鈥檚 hands, clamped down on civil liberties, and sidestepped six articles in the constitution that explicitly ban presidential reelection in order to participate in the Feb. 4 race.

Yet despite nearly half of Salvadorans saying they believe Mr. Bukele broke the law with his reelection bid, he鈥檚 won widespread public approval for his leadership. A majority say they鈥檒l vote for him.

The disconnect is explained on the streets. For 30 years, security has been the top challenge here. The homicide rate was above 70 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2005, and 103 in 2015 鈥� the highest in Latin America. During Mr. Bukele鈥檚 first year in office, homicides went down by almost 50%. The downward trend continues. The sense of security Salvadorans now enjoy is priceless, locals say, even if accompanied by a crackdown on rights.

鈥淭he situation was fatal,鈥� says Lorena Fuentes, who lives just north of the capital. 鈥淚n our hearts, we know who we are going to give [the vote] to,鈥� she says of Mr. Bukele.

His success capitalizes on a sense that democracy previously failed to deliver on promises of stability and upward mobility. Salvadorans had fair, free elections and saw political parties alternating power since the country鈥檚 civil war ended in 1992. But violence skyrocketed, economic mobility was limited, and many people migrated to the United States.

The fact that Mr. Bukele is likely to clinch the presidency next month, despite his anti-democratic maneuvers, raises questions about the limits of democracy at a time when many global leaders are pushing them.

鈥淧eople are clear that reelection has the appearance of being unconstitutional. ... But they don鈥檛 care,鈥� says Marvin Aguilar, a political analyst and former member of Mr. Bukele鈥檚 Nuevas Ideas party. 鈥淭hey will reelect him because they feel a change.鈥�

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Mr. Bukele was elected in 2019 in a landslide victory deemed free and fair by international observers. But not even a year in office, he sent the army into the Legislative Assembly to pressure opposition representatives to approve funds for his security plans. In 2021, his party won a supermajority in the assembly, which allowed them to replace the Constitutional Court, which was supposed to be set until 2027, with loyalists. Some observers called it a coup.

Mr. Bukele鈥檚 allies went on to replace the attorney general, who was investigating corruption in his government, including covert negotiations with gangs.

Four months after the high court鈥檚 overhaul, the newly appointed justices issued a 鈥渞einterpretation鈥� of the constitution that allowed an incumbent to seek reelection. They argued that the 1983 constitution didn鈥檛 answer to current needs and that voters shouldn鈥檛 be prevented from electing 鈥渢he most convenient political option.鈥� They also made a wordplay to declare the ban only applies when a president has already been in power for two periods, not just one.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 give a license to break the law,鈥� urged opposition representative Claudia Ortiz of Mr. Bukele鈥檚 request for permission to run, which was granted in November.

鈥淚nstitutionality exists formally, but not materially,鈥� says Ruth L贸pez, a lawyer and constitutional expert. 鈥淭here is no [independent] institution that works.鈥�

Stepping down?

Mr. Bukele鈥檚 candidacy is supported by over 70% of the population, according to a November Universidad Centroamericana (UCA) poll. His overall approval hovers at 91%. Since he came to office, El Salvador has risen to the top of regional rankings on satisfaction with democracy 鈥� even if on paper it looks to be moving further away from it.

February鈥檚 vote is atypical beyond just the reelection bid. There are few billboards showcasing candidates or mass campaign events. The nongovernmental organization Acci贸n Ciudadana found that 99% of all political ads between August and November came from the government or Mr. Bukele鈥檚 party.

鈥淔or 30 years, you saw how the big parties saturated [society] with propaganda, and you saw an important number of ads for medium and small parties,鈥� says Eduardo Escobar, Acci贸n Ciudadana鈥檚 executive director. 鈥淣ow, it鈥檚 just the ruling party and practically nothing from the rest.鈥澨�

To secure permission to run for reelection, he had to step down, at least symbolically, from office for the six months before the new term.听He assigned his private secretary to temporarily take his place and has kept his security detail, transportation, and presidential residency.

鈥淭he presidential delegate is a decorative figure,鈥� says electoral expert Malcolm Cartagena of interim leader Claudia Juana Rodr铆guez. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a formality.鈥�

鈥淩esults that matter鈥�

Far from the halls of politics, citizens shrug at what has unfolded.

Manuel Saavedra, an 80-year-old army veteran, lifts his shirt to show a scar. In 2013 he was stopped by three MS-13 gang members on the street who told him, 鈥溾�楧on鈥檛 you know you have to pay for walking through here?鈥欌�� he recalls. He says he used his backpack to hit one of the men before trying to run. He was shot twice.

Mr. Bukele鈥檚听鈥済etting so much done. Just with having detained so many criminal gang members who have screwed up our lives,鈥� Mr. Saavedra says.

The recent UCA poll concluded there鈥檚 a concern if Mr. Bukele doesn鈥檛 remain in power that his security strategy will be knocked off track.

鈥淎 large part of the population is willing to exempt disrespect of the Constitution to maintain security and a longing for development,鈥� read the poll analysis.

鈥淸Bukele] threatens democracy by showing how you can violate human rights and weaken rule of law if you give citizens results in things that matter to them,鈥� Daniel Zovatto from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance told CNN.

But security has come at a steep price: A legal measure referred to as the 鈥渟tate of exception鈥� has meant police can enter homes and make arrests without warrants.听Some 75,000 people have been arrested since March 2022, and El Salvador has the highest incarceration rate in the world.

鈥淭he man is doing a good job,鈥� says Mr. Saavedra. 鈥淗ow could I not vote for him?鈥�