海角大神

Venezuela鈥檚 President Nicol谩s Maduro this month ordered schools and government offices to use a redrawn map of the country, which includes a brand-new state 鈥� carved out of neighboring Guyana鈥檚 territory. The national oil company plans to hand out exploration licenses there, and the military is creating a division to administer the territory.

Guyana 鈥� and international courts 鈥� aren鈥檛 on board.

Venezuela and Guyana are at odds over the Essequibo, a sparsely populated patch of land that is covered by rainforests, flat-topped mountains, and sweeping savannas. It has belonged to Guyana since a 19th-century court ruling that never made Venezuela happy, but recently discovered oil reserves have reignited President Maduro鈥檚 interest in claiming control.

As concerns grow that Venezuela鈥檚 authoritarian government could attack its small neighbor over the intensifying land dispute, Presidents Maduro and Irfaan Ali of Guyana will meet in the Caribbean island of St. Vincent tomorrow to try to defuse tensions.

Despite sometimes violent conflicts erupting inside Latin American countries, cross-border attacks are a rarity here. 鈥淚f a conflict of force emerges, the implications would be horrendous to contemplate,鈥澛爏aid St. Vincent and the Grenadine鈥檚 Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, who organized tomorrow鈥檚 meeting.

Mr. Maduro held a referendum vote on the Essequibo earlier this month, but observers say the dispute is about more than territorial expansion.聽Venezuela, which already has the world鈥檚 largest proven oil reserves,聽is preparing to hold its first internationally-monitored presidential election in 11 years, and Mr. Maduro faces the real prospect of losing to the opposition.聽

The leader鈥檚 popularity has plummeted amid a protracted economic crisis, which has been worsened by U.S. sanctions on the nation鈥檚 oil exports. Some sanctions were eased recently under a deal in which Venezuela鈥檚 government promised to reinstate opposition candidates previously barred from participating in elections.聽

鈥淭he real reason this has blown up now is because Maduro needs an issue that will unite Venezuelans around his government,鈥� says Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst for the International Crisis Group. 鈥淭he opposition now has a very popular candidate 鈥� and Maduro needs to find a way to avoid losing power.鈥�

While Mr. Maduro鈥檚 moves around the Essequibo have been 鈥渟ymbolic鈥� so far, Mr. Gunson says the situation could escalate if Mr. Maduro continues to struggle domestically 鈥� possibly using the dispute as an excuse to delay or suspend the anticipated presidential vote.

Unhappy since 1899

The Essequibo is roughly聽the size of Florida, with about 125,000 residents who are mostly members of Indigenous tribes. It makes up two-thirds of Guyana鈥檚 territory, is rich in rivers and gold deposits, and has become crucial for the economy since 2015, when vast oil reserves were found off its shores.

In 1899, when Guyana was a British colony, most of the territory was granted to the United Kingdom by an arbitration court in Paris.

Venezuela, which was then recovering from a series of debilitating civil wars, grudgingly accepted the ruling. Over the past 50 years Venezuela has challenged Guyana鈥檚 control over the Essequibo through diplomatic channels, occasionally using its navy to harass Guyanese fishing boats off the region鈥檚 shores.聽

But Venezuela ramped up its claims on Dec. 3 with a referendum on the Essequibo鈥檚 future.聽

Venezuelan voters were asked five questions, including whether they reject the 1899 court ruling, if they agree with the plan to turn the territory into a Venezuelan state, if the current residents should be granted Venezuelan citizenship, and if they agree with the Maduro administration鈥檚 decision to handle the dispute without the International Court of Justice鈥檚 involvement. The court had previously invited both countries to present their arguments at its headquarters in The Hague.聽

The referendum was overwhelmingly approved 鈥� according to Venezuelan election officials, who say 10.4 million people participated. Officials have not shared data from voting centers.

Local media outlets showed empty polling stations and voting centers stayed open for an additional two hours in an effort to get more people to the polls.聽

In the town of San Antonio del T谩chira, near Venezuela鈥檚 border with Colombia, fruit vendor William Gonz谩lez says he stayed home on referendum day, like most of his neighbors.

鈥淭hey are trying to pave the way for an invasion, which regular citizens will ultimately have to pay鈥� for, Mr. Gonz谩lez says. 鈥淭he matter should be settled in a court.鈥�

Juan Manuel Trak, a Venezuelan sociologist who specializes in electoral processes, says that like recent elections in Venezuela 鈥� including the 2018 presidential vote 鈥� the referendum lacked independent or international observers.聽

鈥淭here is no way to audit the results, so we may never really know what happened,鈥� he says.聽

Military threat?

The referendum provided Mr. Maduro with a way to 鈥渏ustify鈥� his next steps, says Mr. Gunson.

Guyana is preparing for the worst.

The small English-speaking nation is seeking closer military cooperation with the U.S., which already began conducting air patrols over the Essequibo region this month.

President Ali has described Venezuela鈥檚 recent actions such as the referendum and public plans to create an Essequibo state as a 鈥渄irect threat鈥� to Guyana.聽

With just 3,000 troops and four patrol boats known as 鈥渂arracudas鈥� to protect its coast, Guyana鈥檚 military is no match for Venezuela鈥檚, which has 120,000 regular troops in addition to high-tech equipment and a submarine, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank.

But geography may be in Guyana鈥檚 favor. The lack of roads between Venezuela and the Essequibo would make it difficult for Venezuela to move many troops into Guyana, says Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.聽

Not to mention, Venezuela鈥檚 troops may not be as mighty as they look on paper. Mr. Hernandez-Roy points to an attempt two years ago by Venezuela to remove a Colombian rebel group from its territory. The Venezuelans were routed and suffered heavy casualties.

鈥淭his is not the kind of army that is prepared to invade another country,鈥� Mr. Hernandez-Roy says. 鈥淭he military has endemic corruption, and lacks a central command structure.鈥�

There鈥檚 also the risk of angering left-wing presidents in nearby Colombia and Brazil, who currently have a favorable relationship with Venezuela, but would not approve of an invasion, says Brian Fonseca, a professor of national security at Florida International University.

The threat of escalation could depend on how desperate Mr. Maduro becomes in the face of internal challenges to his presidency.聽

鈥淲hen dictators are in hard spots, they sometimes do crazy things,鈥� Mr. Hernandez-Roy says. 鈥淭he international community needs to make sure that it sends a message to Maduro that any kind of armed action is unacceptable.鈥�