海角大神

Firecrackers, noisemakers, and cheers pierced the night sky Sunday as Guatemalans descended on plazas across the country to celebrate the resounding victory of Bernardo Ar茅valo, a sociologist and member of Congress seen as a threat to the political establishment.

鈥淗ope won,鈥� Jos茅 L贸pez, a retail worker, says excitedly while on his way to one of the impromptu celebrations in Guatemala City. 鈥淧eople are tired of all the corruption. We are fed up,鈥� he says.

Mr. Ar茅valo, the Movimiento Semilla party鈥檚 presidential contender, garnered 58% of the vote. His rival, former first lady Sandra Torres, obtained 37.2%, but she has yet to concede as her Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza party questions the election proceedings.

Just a few months ago, most in Guatemala knew little about Mr. Ar茅valo, aside from his famous last name. (His father was the country鈥檚 first democratically elected president, ushering in a decadelong 鈥渄emocratic spring鈥� in 1945.) But three candidates, including two popular outsiders, were disqualified from the first-round election on questionable grounds, paving the way for Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 surprise second-place victory back in June. Brazen judicial moves targeting his party only galvanized voters further, observers say.

There are high expectations from聽the voters who backed him. They expressed a desire for change from the years of systemic corruption and weakening of institutional independence that have come to define modern politics here. His presidential plans include proposals to combat corruption, improve access to public education and health care, and foment equitable economic growth.

But analysts say Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 first challenges will be the certification of the runoff results and getting sworn into office in January. He is expected to face fierce political and judicial backlash in the weeks and months ahead; many here say threats to Guatemala鈥檚 democracy are far from over.

鈥淭his is a turning point for Guatemalan democracy,鈥� says Gabriela Carrera, a political science professor at the Rafael Land铆var University in Guatemala City. In the coming weeks and months, 鈥渢he defense of democracy by Guatemalan society, both organized and unorganized,鈥� will play a critical role in ensuring the public鈥檚 choice at the ballot box is respected.

A done deal?

Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 unexpected success in the first round of voting in June spurred swift backlash from other parties and the public prosecutor鈥檚 office. Legal challenges and criminal investigations into how his party was officially registered five years ago were widely considered to be politically motivated. Both Movimiento Semilla and the electoral tribunal, which certified the results of the first-round vote bringing Mr. Ar茅valo to the runoff, were targeted with raids and arrest warrants this summer.

More interference is likely around the corner. Three days before the runoff, special anti-impunity prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche spoke about several election-related cases, including an ongoing investigation into allegedly fraudulent signatures in Movimiento Semilla鈥檚 registration as a party. Arrest warrants and other measures in the wake of the runoff should not be discounted, he told reporters.

鈥淭he goal of sabotaging the electoral process is still present,鈥� says Renzo Rosal, a Guatemalan political analyst. Some political and economic elites may try to maintain a grip on power, no matter how blatant 鈥� or undemocratic聽鈥� their efforts. 鈥淭hey seek to derail the process, even though it鈥檚 after the fact,鈥� says Mr. Rosal.

Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated Mr. Ar茅valo on his victory and invited him to a meeting once the runoff results are official. But the certification of the election results will be key, analysts say. Ms. Torres and her party repeatedly questioned the validity of Movimiento Semilla and the election process in the lead-up to the runoff, setting the stage for a refusal to recognize Sunday鈥檚 outcome.

Mr. Ar茅valo acknowledged 鈥渙ngoing political persecution carried out by institutions, prosecutors, and judges who have been corruptly co-opted鈥� in his victory speech Sunday night. He said details on his future Cabinet will be announced soon.

Naming a Cabinet may have repercussions. 鈥淭he day people are announced as potential Cabinet members or people who could be in key positions, those names will be put in the crosshairs of the prosecutor鈥檚 office,鈥� says Mr. Rosal.

Seeking change

Voters trickled in and out of a polling station tucked away in a parking lot underneath Guatemala City鈥檚 central plaza almost imperceptibly Sunday afternoon, while the plaza bustled with families and vendors.

鈥淲e hope this next government brings about changes,鈥� says Mariela Contreras, a Guatemala City resident, after walking out of the polling station. Successive governments have done nothing to improve life in Guatemala, she says. 鈥淭hey have all failed us.鈥�

Mr. Ar茅valo and his running mate Karin Herrera, a biologist, are not short on proposals for change. Their 64-page government plan addresses everything from structural causes of chronic childhood malnutrition to cracking down on anti-competitive business practices.

Anti-corruption measures were front and center on the campaign trail. A few of them are at the top of Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 list of 24 priorities for his first 100 days in office: identifying and reporting corruption cases, establishing a new code of ethics and transparency for government officials, and ensuring information on all government expenditure 鈥� 鈥渆very cent鈥� 鈥� is available to the public.

Access to education and health, including expansion and improvement of coverage, is another cornerstone of his plans. In light of high medication costs, he鈥檚 promised to create a state company with a network of public pharmacies.

Mr. Ar茅valo and Ms. Herrera鈥檚 plan mentions Indigenous people 鈥� who comprise close to half the country鈥檚 population 鈥� in relation to inclusion and equitable social spending. Like most other party platforms in the country, though, it does not address historical racism, says Victoria Tubin, a sociologist who is of the Maya Kaqchikel people.

Some traditional governance authorities and Indigenous women鈥檚 organizations have expressed interest in dialogue with the party during the transition period, says Ms. Tubin.

Job training and creation programs, significant investment in road and highway infrastructure, and the addition of 12,000 officers to the national police force are just a few more points in Movimiento Semilla鈥檚 wide-ranging plan.

The feasibility of it all is based, in part, on a projected annual increase in tax revenues without raising tax rates, says Lourdes Molina, a senior economist at the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies. Instead, the party plans to improve the tax administration system, reduce evasion, and go after customs fraud. While income inequality in Guatemala is among the highest in聽Latin America, its tax burden is among the lowest and consumers bear the brunt of it. The country loses an estimated $1 billion in revenue annually due to evasion of the value-added tax alone.

鈥淭he availability of resources is what determines whether government plans will just end up being campaign promises or whether they will become realities,鈥� says Ms. Molina.

Challenges ahead

Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 administration will find few allies in other branches of government. Top courts are stacked against anti-corruption crusaders like him, and Consuelo Porras, the country鈥檚 controversial attorney general, is in office until 2026.

In Congress, Movimiento Semilla will hold 23 of 160 seats next year. The current ruling party, Vamos, and the聽Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza party聽both won more seats and have formed an informal alliance with several other parties in recent years.

What 鈥渨e have been calling the ruling alliance is going to continue and will even become stronger,鈥� says Mr. Rosal, the political analyst. 鈥淲e鈥檙e easily talking about at least 110 or 120 congressional representatives, so it is an extremely strong majority that will dominate Congress, its executive committee, and key commissions,鈥� he says.

Should Movimiento Semilla lose its status as a registered party, its elected lawmakers would take office as independents. They would be barred from presiding over congressional commissions, among other roles. A judge ordered its status be revoked in July, but the electoral tribunal refused to comply given it is illegal to cancel a party while an electoral process is underway. The country鈥檚 top court agreed, putting those efforts on hold until October.

鈥淭he other important thing is that it would bog down Semilla leadership in legal struggles,鈥� says Ms. Carrera, the political scientist. 鈥淭he party鈥檚 most important leaders at the moment are elected congressional representatives,鈥� she says.

For now, officials cannot suspend the party, but that doesn鈥檛 mean they won鈥檛 pursue other measures in the meantime. 鈥淭here is a series of dynamics that we are unable to see but that is even more dangerous,鈥� says Ms. Carrera.

鈥淒efinitely what is feared鈥� by those currently in power, she adds, 鈥渋s the will of the Guatemalan people.鈥�