海角大神

More than 200 Mayan women gathered with back looms and protest banners outside the public prosecutor鈥檚 office in Guatemala City last week, demanding the government stop 鈥渨eaving corruption鈥� ahead of a presidential runoff election.

It was one of many diverse 鈥� and earnest 鈥� protests that emerged across Guatemala in the lead-up to this Sunday鈥檚 vote, part of a chorus of calls for officials to respect the electoral process and democracy here.聽

鈥淲e are protesting today not to defend any political party, but for democracy, for rule of law,鈥� says Angelina Aspuac, coordinator of the National Movement of Weavers, which organized the demonstration. Across the street, weavers worked on brilliantly colored textiles in a symbolic act of protest. Strips of paper reading 鈥渉ope鈥� and 鈥渄emocracy鈥� adorned the threads on their looms.

On June 25, Bernardo Ar茅valo, of the Movimiento Semilla party, unexpectedly secured second place in a first-round presidential election, behind Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza聽contender and former first lady Sandra Torres. Many in the political and economic elite consider Mr. Ar茅valo a threat to Guatemala鈥檚 status quo.

But Mr. Ar茅valo, a sociologist and congressman,聽seems to have captured a wave of citizen frustration. Many are angered by systemic corruption and the government鈥檚 weakening of democratic institutions 鈥� a discontent that has been further fueled by an ongoing criminal investigation into Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 party that is widely considered politically motivated. Guatemalans are heading to the polls this weekend, and for many, regardless of political affiliation, the vote will define the nation鈥檚 path 鈥� either toward, or further away from, democracy.

The future of Guatemala is at stake, says Iduvina Hern谩ndez, director of the Association for the Study of Security in Democracy, a Guatemalan nongovernmental organization.

The government鈥檚 attempts to undermine the election, and the growing support for an outsider candidate, have 鈥渃onvinced a citizenry that had a lot of apathy ... to start to believe in the possibility of change,鈥� she says.

鈥淣o secret鈥�

Rule of law has seen a drastic decline in Guatemala over the past five years. More than two dozen prosecutors and judges working on high-profile cases on corruption and crimes against humanity have fled the country into exile, while others who remain face prosecution and prison.

The recent raids, arrest warrants, and other measures targeting Movimiento Semilla and the electoral tribunal, which certified Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 spot in the runoff, triggered alarm both in and outside Guatemala.聽Prosecutors are still investigating allegedly fraudulent signatures related to the party鈥檚 founding.

Governments including the United States, Canada, and the European Union, as well as multilateral institutions, condemned the actions. International observation missions are on the ground to monitor the Aug. 20 vote.

鈥淚t is no secret that we are very concerned,鈥� Luis Almagro, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, noted last week in a report on his visit to the country this month. 鈥淚t is a worrying situation in terms of the electoral process and in terms of the institutions of a democratic state.鈥�

Outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei assured Mr. Almagro that the government will respect the run-off results, promising to hand over power to the winner on Jan. 14. Should Mr. Ar茅valo win 鈥� which recent polls show is likely 鈥� his party is expected to face further legal challenges.

Unlikely organizers

Whether the run-off would even happen was up in the air a few weeks ago. That鈥檚 when Israel Ortiz and other members of evangelical 海角大神 churches began meeting over Zoom to organize聽expressions of support for聽democracy across congregations and counter the聽public聽dominance of conservative evangelical voices aligned with the ruling party.

Within two weeks the grassroots initiative included members and leaders from Baptist, Pentecostal, Presbyterian, and Mennonite congregations, along with non-denominational 海角大神s. Dubbed the Evangelical Roundtable for Democracy, the group has made calls for broader public political participation, launched social media accounts, and took part in a roughly 250-person march last weekend in Guatemala City.

In Guatemala, 鈥渢he influence and power of religion are used to push narratives that are ultimately intended to demobilize people,鈥� and keep them from participating in political change, says Mr. Ortiz. 鈥淚n contrast, we are people of faith, and faith mobilizes us,鈥� he says, referring to the roundtable鈥檚 political activism. Many roundtable members individually support Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 party, but their group is non-partisan, focused on support for democracy.

Disinformation has figured prominently in the run-off. Signs and brochures purporting to be from Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 campaign have broadcast false claims that he plans to legalize abortion and marriage equality. Those allegations have also been stoked by pastors, far-right groups, and by Ms. Torres, Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 conservative rival.

鈥淭he final element of democracy that remains is the popular vote,鈥� Mr. Ortiz says. We are here 鈥渢o defend that last bastion of democracy, because if we do not do it now, we may not have another opportunity for decades,鈥� he says in Guatemala City鈥檚 expansive central plaza at the end of an Aug. 13 march.

Continuity vs. change

Mr. Ar茅valo and Ms. Torres each held a series of rallies this week, before the mandatory suspension of all campaigning at noon Friday. Two recent polls on voter intentions found Mr. Ar茅valo holding a lead over Ms. Torres of between 22 and 29 points, with more than 60% of voter support. But a climate of uncertainty and tension remains.

The political turmoil over the past several weeks 鈥� and in the leadup to the June general election, when several prominent candidates were disqualified from running 鈥� has confused and deterred some potential voters. But the legal actions against Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 party and the electoral tribunal significantly raised his profile and strengthened the perception that the run-off is between contenders representing continuity vs. change.

The burgeoning support for Mr. Ar茅valo against all expectations 鈥渋s the most clear expression of people being fed up with what has been happening and exercising their vote as a mechanism of rejection,鈥� says Ms. Hern谩ndez, the NGO director.

Political parties have historically shown up in Indigenous communities during campaign periods, giving gifts or making promises, and then ignoring and excluding these populations once in power, says Salvador Quiacain, a Maya Tz鈥檜tujil elder and community leader from San Pedro la Laguna. Although 鈥淎r茅valo may not be perfect,鈥� Mr. Quiacain is hopeful his government would be more inclusive and open to dialogue.

Standing outside the prosecutor鈥檚 office, where he came to support the weavers鈥� protests, Mr. Quiacain says,聽鈥淔ortunately we have an option.鈥�