海角大神

With Guatemalans heading to the polls Sunday for elections that range from the municipal to the presidential, confidence in the nation鈥檚 electoral system is hitting the lowest point since the 1985 transition to democracy.

Even as a record number of political parties have registered for the election, the Electoral Court has disqualified several top candidates over what are widely seen as political charges.

Contributing to the preelection turmoil, Guatemala鈥檚 independent judiciary has been destabilized, with its members more and more often in jail, under death threats, or in exile.

More than 25 judges and prosecutors have fled Guatemala in the face of pressure to drop large-scale corruption investigations or following threats and intimidation. Attorney General Consuelo Porras has suspended the immunity of some judges working on high-stakes cases, rendering them vulnerable to retribution.

The tumultuous run-up to the presidential elections underscores how far Guatemala has fallen in recent years 鈥� from having one of Latin America鈥檚 most admired anti-corruption judicial systems to the situation today, when judges and journalists are openly threatened.

The reason, say analysts, is that the country鈥檚 powerful elite聽鈥� typically part of the political or business classes and military families聽鈥� has felt threatened by court cases that have drawn attention to them in recent years, compelling many to lash out at judges and prosecutors.

鈥淲e鈥檝e seen this in El Salvador and Nicaragua, too,鈥� says Miguel 脕ngel G谩lvez, a former high-risk court judge, exiled since November. 鈥淭he first step for authoritarian leaders is to take over the judiciary.鈥�

鈥淏reaking the record鈥�

Thirty parties have registered for the elections,聽in which voters will select a president, members of Congress, mayors, and city councilors. But the commotion surrounding the election has led many to lose faith: Confidence in the electoral system has fallen to a historic low of 20%, according to recent polls.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any point in voting in these elections,鈥� says Paulo Estrada, whose father and uncle were among the 183 victims of the Diario Militar, a dictatorship-era military operation on which Guatemalan judges are still working to hold aggressors accountable.

The Electoral Court 鈥渢ook out anyone who doesn鈥檛 agree with impunity, corruption, organized crime, and drug trafficking,鈥� he says, referring to the exclusion of leading candidates, including his favorite, Thelma Cabrera, an Indigenous human rights defender.

Political polarization has triggered the recent plunge in confidence in democracy, analysts say. At its root, many see the unraveling of the International Commission Against Impunity (CICIG), which was established in 2007 as the first U.N.-backed anti-corruption panel in the world. The commission trained prosecutors and served as a beacon of hope for many in a region notorious for sky-high levels of impunity and corruption. But not everyone was pleased.

CICIG 鈥渨as seen as a threat to historic elites,鈥� says Eduardo Nu帽ez, director of Guatemala鈥檚 chapter of the National Democratic Institute, a U.S. nonprofit that aims to strengthen democratic institutions globally. The government did not extend its mandate, forcing it to close in 2019.

Since then, judges and prosecutors who worked closely with CICIG have been targeted for their anti-impunity work that sometimes implicates the nation鈥檚 most powerful citizens.

This is not the first time that the Electoral Court has excluded candidates from a presidential election. Two of three leading candidates were not allowed to run in 2019. But what makes this weekend鈥檚 vote so complex is the scale of anti-democratic moves, such as the use of the judicial branch to disqualify key candidates. 鈥淲e鈥檙e breaking the record on that,鈥� Mr. Nu帽ez says.

鈥淭he message has been that if you do not align [with those in power], you go into exile,鈥� says Mr. Estrada, a member of Famdegua, an association for survivors of human rights violations and their relatives.

The solution?

Judge G谩lvez, who fled Guatemala last year, is known for his work investigating the Diario Militar case and genocide charges against former President Jos茅 Efra铆n R铆os Montt. He now lives in Costa Rica.

Removing his glasses to wipe away tears one recent morning, he says the attacks on his person, and on his reputation, became 鈥渢oo much鈥� last year. He was being followed by people in cars without license plates, and unknown individuals pressured his secretary to reveal details of his daily movements. He believes he and his family were targeted because of his high-profile caseload.

Judge G谩lvez was one of six members of a specialized court that rules on the most serious crimes in the country. Three of its members have gone into exile since last year.

The government鈥檚 鈥渟olution鈥� to uncomfortable criminal charges against politicians, former military officers, and members of Guatemala鈥檚 powerful business class 鈥渨as to get rid of us,鈥� says Juan Francisco Sandoval, head of the special prosecutor鈥檚 office from 2015 to 2021. He oversaw corruption cases against three former presidents, and weeks before Attorney General Porras dismissed him, he was investigating corruption charges that implicated outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei鈥檚 administration.

A Guatemalan court has issued five arrest orders for Mr. Sandoval on charges that he and international observers say are fabricated. He now lives in exile in Washington, but remains involved in Guatemalan affairs. 鈥淚 receive so many messages鈥� from citizens about wrongdoing in Guatemala and the need for change, he says. 鈥淭hat motivates me to keep going.鈥�

鈥淭he whole movie鈥�

There was a moment when Guatemala seemed to be moving in another, more democratic direction.

The creation of CICIG in the early 2000s led to high-profile investigations and what for many felt like an end to official impunity. Leaders like former President Otto P茅rez Molina were forced to resign and sent to prison. But the commission鈥檚 investigation into the family of then-President Jimmy Morales in 2018 provoked a political backlash.

鈥淓ventually CICIG went beyond its mandate,鈥� says Mar铆a Isabel Bonilla, associate researcher at the National Economic Research Center, a Guatemalan think tank. She argues it could have done more for the country if it had limited itself to training prosecutors, instead of kicking up dust on past war crimes or trying to leave its mark on the nation鈥檚 constitution.

Despite the dozens of prosecutors, judges, and others forced out of Guatemala in recent years, not everyone agrees the nation is in crisis.

鈥淵ou cannot just look at a photograph. You have to watch the whole movie,鈥� says Juan Carlos Zapata, director of the Foundation for the Development of Guatemala, a local think tank. 鈥淚t looks like there鈥檚 political persecution,鈥� he says. But he believes these are simply 鈥減endulums in justice.鈥� Economic and political elites, as well as members of the judicial branch, have been harassed in recent years, too, he points out.

Mr. Nu帽ez also sees this moment as a pendulum swing. 鈥淭he current movement ... favors actors who are in power today,鈥� he says. But eventually, 鈥渢hey will face limits.鈥�

That won鈥檛 happen before this weekend鈥檚 election, however, to the frustration of people like Judge G谩lvez. 鈥淭hey are not giving any space for anyone who is not 鈥榯heirs鈥� to be in power.鈥�