海角大神

海角大神 / Text

鈥楽ave this country鈥: Brazil grapples with trust on heels of Lula victory

Mistrust in democracy is on full display following incumbent Bolsonaro鈥檚 electoral defeat. Can Lula rebuild faith in Brazil?

By Ana Ionova , Contributor
Rio de Janeiro

Tears streaming down her cheeks, Viviane Ramos joined hands with other protesters and began feverishly murmuring prayers outside a military building in Rio de Janeiro鈥檚 center.

鈥淟ord, pray for us, pray for our nation,鈥 Ms. Ramos, an evangelical 海角大神, called toward the skies on Nov. 2 as rain pelted her face and drenched the Brazilian flag draped over her shoulders. 鈥淪ave this country.鈥

Along with thousands of others clad in yellow, she was there to protest the result of the Oct. 30 election, which leftist former President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva, known universally as Lula, won by a razor-thin margin. Underscoring a lack of trust in established politics and democratic institutions that has grown over the past听four years听among a large segment of the population, protesters are demanding that the military step in to keep far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in power.

鈥淲e won鈥檛 accept the results,鈥 says Ms. Ramos, an administrative assistant. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 prove it, but I know the vote wasn鈥檛 fair.鈥 She worries a swing to the left would threaten family values, paving the way for legal drugs and abortion. 鈥淭hese are not my values. We can鈥檛 let our nation be destroyed.鈥

Following the announcement of Lula鈥檚 victory, a relatively small but powerful cohort of truck drivers听and protestersset up hundreds of roadblocks 鈥 with little resistance from highway police 鈥 disrupting the transport of food, medicine, and fuel across Brazil. On Nov. 2, supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro took to the streets in dozens of cities, drawing a turnout of more than 100,000 people nationwide.

The demonstrations have been largely peaceful, quieting fears of a violent backlash from Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 more radicalized base. But, the demands of demonstrators have unnerved many here, where memories are still fresh of a brutal military dictatorship that governed between 1964 and 1985. Widespread mistrust in the electoral process, largely stoked by Mr. Bolsonaro himself, has posed tough questions about the integrity of Latin America鈥檚 largest democracy, and whether Lula will be able to overcome the challenges 鈥撎齩rexacerbate them.

鈥淟ula will clash with this radicalized segment at every turn over the next four years,鈥 says Paulo Henrique Cassimiro, a political science professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. 鈥淭he extreme right is not going to disappear just because Bolsonaro lost.鈥

鈥淥wn idea of democracy鈥

Following defeat Oct. 30, Mr. Bolsonaro remained silent for 45 hours, heightening worries that he would contest the result. When he finally spoke Tuesday evening, he didn鈥檛 claim fraud 鈥 but he didn鈥檛 recognize his loss. Instead, he begrudgingly agreed to a transfer of power while declaring protests are the fruit of 鈥渋ndignation and feelings of injustice in the electoral process.鈥

Many of Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 supporters took his vague language as encouragement, not a concession. 鈥淗e didn鈥檛 recognize the result; he showed he is on the side of the people,鈥 says Hudyson Perrut, a young evangelical pastor. 鈥淚f Lula wasn鈥檛 a thief and had won legitimately, we wouldn鈥檛 be here.鈥

Demonstrators have rallied around a deep disdain for Lula, who has struggled to shake his own tainted past to win back the trust of millions of Brazilians. The former unionist oversaw a golden era of growth from 2003 to 2010, when sky-high commodity prices funded generous social programs that pulled millions out of poverty.

But Lula鈥檚 legacy was tarnished when a corruption scandal embroiled his leftist Workers鈥 Party (PT) and landed him in prison in听2018. Even though a judge scrapped his conviction, freeing him to run for a third term, many Brazilians can鈥檛 forgive and forget.

For Val茅ria das Gra莽as, a child psychologist, the leftist鈥檚 past isn鈥檛 easy to overlook. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 have a convict as president,鈥 she shouts as firecrackers rip through the sky, leaving a yellow trace of smoke. 鈥淗e belongs in jail. We want the armed forces to take over.鈥

Mr. Bolsonaro, a former army captain, has long attacked democratic institutions, referred to Brazil鈥檚 military dictatorship nostalgically, and suggested that the Supreme Court be dismantled. He has peddled baseless claims about fraud in Brazil鈥檚 electronic voting machines, saying they are rigged to favor the left.

He convinced Simone Alho. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 trust the result. We don鈥檛 trust the electoral process,鈥 says听Ms. Alho, a banker wearing bright green-and-yellow eyeliner.听

These unfounded听assertions of fraud, echoed and amplified on social media听and messaging apps, have succeeded in mobilizing Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 base, bringing them from online to physically on the streets, says Let铆cia Cesarino, a professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina who researches far-right groups on the messaging app Telegram.

While most observers agree that a military coup is unlikely, the demands of protesters underscore the challenges ahead.听Brazil鈥檚 brutal 21-year dictatorship was defined by censorship, torture, and repression. Since the transition to democracy, steps have been taken to keep the military firmly separate from politics, something observers say Mr. Bolsonaro took pains to chip away at during his time in office by handing out thousands of top government jobs to current and former military officers. In an unprecedented move, he asked the military to monitor and audit the elections.听

鈥淭here is a segment of the population that wants to essentially redraw the Constitution,鈥 says Dr. Cesarino. 鈥淭hey clearly have their own idea of democracy. ... That鈥檚 really worrying.鈥

Democratic 鈥渄anger zone鈥?

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 defeat doesn鈥檛 signify an end to the far-right鈥檚 reach in politics. Allies elected to congressional, senatorial, and gubernatorial posts have cemented the far-right as a powerful political force. When Lula is sworn in on Jan. 1, he will have to negotiate with a potentially hostile Congress bent on pushing Brazil further to the right.

Alliances with political opponents, which take time, energy, and political concessions to build, will be the only way to govern, observers say.

Lula will also have to win over evangelical 海角大神s, a growing force now representing a third of the population. It鈥檚 considered a base loyal to Mr. Bolsonaro, who gained their trust by warning of a 鈥渓eftist attack鈥 on values, like bringing transgender bathrooms into public schools.

During the election, many misinformation campaigns centered around religion, including false claims that Lula planned to shut down churches. Lula has tried to reassure religious Brazilians that he represents no threat.听Just weeks before the runoff vote, Lula issued a statement insisting he 鈥渄oes not have a pact鈥 with the devil, after Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 campaign tried to link him to satanism, a move unthinkable in most modern elections around the globe.

Lula鈥檚 PT was once the party of choice for many of the poor, Black Brazilians that today fill evangelical pews. As the left shifted its attention to听divisive听issues like abortion听and gay rights听over the past decade, pastors began to urge their congregations to reject听leftist听candidates.听During his campaign, Lula mostly stayed silent on divisive topics, and tried to build bridges with religious leaders. Since his victory, he has won the endorsement of powerful evangelicals like Silas Malafaia, who once cast him as the enemy, possibly opening up a path to earn the trust of more evangelical congregants.

And听economics could听ultimately听trump religious fervor. Lula鈥檚 election comes at a crucial time for Brazil, when a punishing economic crisis has sent food and fuel prices surging. About 33 million people are now going hungry, reversing decades of social and economic progress.

鈥淭hese voters are not just evangelicals 鈥 he doesn鈥檛 just have to talk to them about values,鈥 says Dr. Cassimiro. 鈥淗e can reach them on other issues too, especially by improving life for the poor.鈥

But more extreme segments of the far-right are likely to continue to move toward the fringes, fed in large part by the proliferation of disinformation on social media. Crackdowns on 鈥渇ake news鈥 during the election听backfired, as Supreme Court judges and electoral authorities have come under attack for going too far in their efforts to curb the spread of misinformation. Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters say these institutions are censoring them,听sowing听further doubts in independent institutions key to a healthy democracy.

By Friday, most blockades around the country were cleared after Mr. Bolsonaro appealed to his supporters to lift the roadblocks to avoid economic turmoil. But, on messaging apps, his supporters are busy planning more protests, including demonstrations in front of military establishments that took place over the weekend. Their actions signal that voters unhappy with Lula鈥檚 victory aren鈥檛 ready to accept his win just yet, even as Mr. Bolsonaro stands down.听

鈥淏olsonaro鈥檚 defeat is like a sigh of relief for democracy,鈥 says Dr. Cassimiro. 鈥淏ut that doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 out of the danger zone.鈥

Editor鈥檚 note: This story has been updated to reflect developments in the news.