海角大神

Estefan铆a Veloz, a lawyer and feminist in Mexico City, halted her longtime support for Mexico鈥檚 ruling Morena party earlier this year, after it backed a candidate accused of rape.

But she never stopped supporting its founder, President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador.

Though he disappointed her with his treatment of feminist concerns and management of the pandemic, Ms. Veloz counts herself among the roughly 60% of Mexicans who approve of his leadership.

鈥淗e鈥檚 not listening [to feminists] but that鈥檚 not surprising: He鈥檚 67. It鈥檚 like trying to get your dad to understand this complicated movement,鈥� she says. What gives her hope is that he still has another three years to come around, a track record of fighting for the 鈥渦nderdog,鈥� and a cabinet brimming with women 鈥� plus a chance to gain more power in the lower house of Congress in Sunday鈥檚 midterm elections, which would allow him to push ahead with his vision for a transformed Mexico.

While populist leaders around the globe have suffered political blows from mismanaging the pandemic 鈥� Mexico lost more than 320,000 lives, one of the highest death tolls worldwide聽鈥� Mr. L贸pez Obrador maintains hearty approval ratings. Political analysts say he鈥檚 鈥渕ade of Teflon.鈥� He鈥檚 survived multiple setbacks over the past 2 1/2 years, from gasoline shortages and the pandemic to burning bridges with former allies. When his government is evaluated on specific issues, like security or the economy, it garners substantially lower marks (28% and 25% approval, respectively).

Analysts say his popularity comes down to a handful of populist traits 鈥� like playing into historic polarization, prioritizing poor people (at least in his rhetoric), and controlling the media narrative through daily press conferences 颅鈥� and a lack of opposition. But perhaps above all, what Mr. L贸pez Obrador has going for him is his ability to instill hope, despite scant concrete progress.

When Mr. L贸pez Obrador was elected in 2018, 鈥渉e became the incarnation of public anger [with established politicians and parties], and the incarnation of hope that things could be different,鈥� says Carlos Bravo Regidor, an associate professor at Mexico鈥檚 Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), who produced a podcast episode digging into why the president maintains such high public support.

鈥淲e tend to think of hope and anger as opposite political feelings, but the truth is they came hand-in-hand in Mexico,鈥� he says. And Mr. L贸pez Obrador continues to stoke public anger 鈥� pinning the nation鈥檚 problems on the elite and the corrupt and politicians who came before him 鈥� while buoying hope that only he has the answers to decades of Mexican woes.

Dropping the ball

When COVID-19 hit, Latin American populists from Brazil鈥檚 Jair Bolsonaro to Nicaragua鈥檚 Daniel Ortega to Mr. L贸pez Obrador mostly looked the other way 鈥� with the exception of El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele took a more hard-line approach.

Will Grant, author of 鈥淧opulista: The Rise of Latin America鈥檚 21^st Century Strongmen,鈥� says he was initially surprised by how many populist leaders essentially didn鈥檛 react to COVID-19. 鈥淚 would have thought we鈥檇 see more of a cover thrown over the most vulnerable,鈥� Mr. Grant says. Instead, many leaders 鈥渟old this idea that it was no big deal. They had it, they got over it, and it fed into the narrative that they aren鈥檛 weak, it鈥檚 not something to be scared of, and there鈥檚 no need to close down the economy.鈥�

But it鈥檚 not just Mr. L贸pez Obrador who鈥檚 been forgiven for a laissez-faire response. Many politicians in Latin America likely benefited from the global nature of the pandemic, says Amy Erica Smith, an associate professor at Iowa State University who studies how citizens engage with authoritarian and democratic governments. Leaders have 鈥渇ramed the pandemic as 鈥榃ell, I didn鈥檛 cause this,鈥欌�� she says. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e had a lot of leeway in framing the pandemic in ways that reduce the blame attached to them.鈥�

There is frustration with leaders, no doubt. 鈥淏ut people don鈥檛 know where to really place the anger. [COVID-19] is an act of God. It wasn鈥檛 created by one person or political party,鈥� says Nicol谩s Sald铆as, an analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

There鈥檚 also a socioeconomic element to the lack of public backlash. 鈥淧art of the reason incumbents aren鈥檛 being held more accountable is that the working and lower classes are used to not being well served by their political system,鈥� Professor Smith says. Support such as unconditional cash transfers for poor people in Mexico and pandemic-relief cash transfers in Brazil have helped some populists weather the crisis as well.

鈥淎lone at the top鈥�

Polls project Mr. Lopez Obrador鈥檚 party, Morena, will have a strong showing in this weekend鈥檚 midterms, when some 20,000 municipal, state, and national positions are up for grabs. In the lower house of Congress, Morena鈥檚 coalition is expected to fall just short of the supermajority needed to make numerous constitutional changes. These are reforms that have critics fearful the president will try to further erode democratic checks and balances in the name of 鈥渢ransformation.鈥�

鈥淭he Mexican electorate is more strategic and smarter than anyone ever gives it credit for,鈥� says Tony Payan, director of the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University. 鈥淭hey know how to exact punishment and dole out rewards and how to make political corrections,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 have the suspicion that the electorate is fixing to use the ballot box to exact a cost for the lack of the government鈥檚 COVID-19 strategy.鈥�

However, this may manifest itself more at the local level, Mr. Bravo says.

Ms. Veloz doesn鈥檛 think she鈥檚 alone in being unhappy with Morena, yet she鈥檚 still planning on casting her vote for them. For her, it鈥檚 largely a desire to keep Mr. L贸pez Obrador working for a better Mexico. 鈥淭he president is constantly talking about how we need a majority in Congress to keep the transformation going,鈥� she says of his plans to root out corruption, hold people who are rich and powerful to account, and create more opportunities for poor people.

But it鈥檚 also a lack of alternatives. She describes a recent meme that tells people not to vote for Morena because it is just like the PRI, a party that ruled Mexico for more than 70 years and is often associated with corruption and cronyism. The meme goes on to say 鈥淲ho should I vote for, then?鈥� The answer: 鈥淭he PRI.鈥�

Since the president鈥檚 election three years ago, 鈥渢here hasn鈥檛 been an effort by opposition parties to really come to terms with the decision of Mexican voters [to reject the establishment] and for parties to reinvent themselves to become viable or attractive again,鈥� says Mr. Bravo. 鈥淭here鈥檚 an inertia driving L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 approval ratings. He seems to be alone at the top, with no real leadership alternative disputing his narrative or politicizing his failures or bringing him to task.鈥�

Juan Miguel, a bricklayer in Mexico City who asked not to use his last name, says it鈥檚 been a 鈥渢errible year鈥� for his family: Two uncles and a cousin died from COVID-19. His wife lost her job and his kids are still out of school. He doesn鈥檛 blame the president, who has 鈥渢ried very hard,鈥� he says. And although he hasn鈥檛 been impressed with Morena legislators, he plans to support the party.

鈥淚t鈥檚 what鈥檚 good for the president, and that鈥檚 what鈥檚 good for the country,鈥� he says.