海角大神

When Nayib Bukele was voted El Salvador鈥檚 new president in 2019, he had popular backing, but little support in the government. Two years later, the landscape of democracy has changed dramatically.

Saturday, in the recently elected Legislative Assembly鈥檚 first session, his alliance鈥檚 newfound supermajority swiftly dismissed five Supreme Court justices听and the attorney general, replacing them with Bukele sympathizers.

In 2019, 鈥渢here were three separate branches of government鈥� in El Salvador, says Geoff Thale, president of the Washington Office on Latin America. 鈥淣ow there鈥檚 one.鈥�

The moves raised immediate condemnation, both abroad and at home. There was little regard for the constitutional process in removing and replacing the justices, critics say, confirming long-held concerns that Mr. Bukele was adopting an authoritarian leadership style. But his vast popularity 鈥� with nearly 90% approval in recent polls 鈥� and wins through free and fair democratic elections complicate efforts to convince Salvadorans that this concentration of power is risky for the country鈥檚 democratic health.

鈥淭he panorama is really challenging, but there are things that can be done鈥� to correct course, says Leonor Arteaga Rubio, program director at the Due Process of Law Foundation in Washington, and previously a deputy in the Salvadoran Office of the Human Rights Ombudsman. Other countries and international organizations need to condition aid packages and consider individual sanctions, she says, and Salvadoran civil society should strengthen civic education and engagement.

鈥淲hat worries me most right now is the citizen backing鈥� for actions听that weaken institutions and do away with checks and balances, she says. 鈥淚 fear that when Salvadorans realize what has happened, it will be too late鈥�. They will stick with him as long as he is resolving their problems.鈥澨�听听

鈥淔滨搁贰顿!鈥�

Mr. Bukele has gained widespread support for his populist agenda, including an iron-fist approach to fighting organized crime, promises to weed out corruption, and his tough handling of COVID-19. Many voters appreciate his rejection of the two main political parties that led the country since the end of its 12-year civil war in 1992.

The media-savvy leader tapped into that support to defend his party鈥檚 moves over the weekend. Directly following the vote to replace the five judges serving in the constitutional chamber of the top court, he tweeted that it came down to the will of the people: 鈥淎nd the people of El Salvador, through their representatives, said: FIRED!鈥�

For Guadalupe Alfaro, a vendor in the capital San Salvador, the dismissals were the right decision.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 get why there鈥檚 so much drama around this,鈥� says Ms. Alfaro, adding that previous governments replaced public officials, too. These judges 鈥渨ere saying everything was unconstitutional and it鈥檚 hard to govern when you鈥檙e dealing with enemies. It鈥檚 fine to have opposition, but not enemies.鈥� Legislators argued the justices听had unconstitutionally impeded the government鈥檚 ability to adequately respond to COVID-19 by ruling against some of Mr. Bukele鈥檚 pandemic restrictions.

Marcela Galeas, a lawyer and analyst in San Salvador, fears citizens supporting the judicial overhaul aren鈥檛 thinking long-term. 鈥淲e have a climate of judicial insecurity, and constitutionally speaking it鈥檚 made the guarantee of individual rights more vulnerable,鈥� Ms. Galeas says. 鈥淭his near-absolute power means the law can be applied disproportionately and anyone of us could be at its mercy.鈥�

Mr. Bukele isn鈥檛 writing a new playbook. Critics point to examples of countries that have eliminated checks and balances of the judiciary in the past as cautionary tales. From Nicaragua to Venezuela to Honduras, there are plenty of examples of governments manipulating the judicial branch 鈥� often with popular support 鈥� to extend presidential term limits or wipe out the opposition.

鈥淒o all presidents seek to have allies on the Supreme Court and in the attorney general? Yes. That鈥檚 a political reality,鈥� says Mr. Thale. But 鈥渕ost presidents and governments recognize there needs to be a degree of independence, and Bukele has abandoned that.鈥�

Riding high鈥�for how long?

But it isn鈥檛 a given that support will stay high, Mr. Thale warns. 鈥淧residents who adopt these kind of measures tend to lose popularity or support, because they don鈥檛 succeed in improving daily life.鈥�

That鈥檚 key to the international community鈥檚 next move, observers say. Many are calling for the International Monetary Fund to pause negotiations on a key loan, or for the United States to condition its development aid on El Salvador鈥檚 commitment to its institutions鈥� democratic health. But these are tricky options: Withholding loans or aid could increase economic instability, generating more migration. Yet the instability and political impunity that may emerge from meddling with the judiciary could drive even more down the line.

And for some, the immediate fallout from the judicial overhaul has raised the most concern. Mr. Bukele doubled down on his contempt for the international outcry the day after the vote: 鈥淭o our friends in the international community: We want to work with you, trade, travel, get to know each other, and help where we can. Our doors are more open than ever,鈥� he posted on Twitter. 鈥淏ut with all due respect: We鈥檙e cleaning our house 鈥� and it鈥檚 none of your business.鈥�

On Monday, the president met with foreign diplomats in San Salvador for a meeting that attendees said they were promised was private. It ended up aired on national TV.

Andrea Alvarez, a homemaker in San Salvador, says she is on board with dismissing the judges and the attorney general 鈥� it鈥檚 the way things go in politics, even if it is generating 鈥渦ncertainty,鈥� she says. But the president鈥檚 reaction to the international community has her concerned.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 act this way 鈥� that doesn鈥檛 make our country look good. I think this can have some very negative consequences in terms of diplomatic relations.鈥�

Stark choices

Other countries in the region have started down concerning paths for democracy, yet managed to change course. An extreme case is Chile: During dictator Augusto Pinochet鈥檚 rule, international pressure led his government to allow a 1988 plebiscite, which resulted in the end of his rule. Others point to more recent examples like Bolivians taking to the street to protest President Evo Morale鈥檚 claims to winning a fourth consecutive term in a contested vote, or Peruvians last year turning out en masse to protest what was largely viewed as a legislative coup, after congressmen swiftly ousted a president on questionable charges.

鈥淭hese countries started down these paths toward concentrating power in one branch or another,鈥� says Ms. Arteaga. 鈥淭hey aren鈥檛 perfect parallels, but due to some kind of intervention 鈥� most often citizen, sometimes international 鈥� they were able to get their democracies back on course.鈥�

She hasn鈥檛 lost hope for El Salvador, but she鈥檚 disappointed.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 surprise me, but it pains me that we haven鈥檛 learned as a country the high cost of giving a blank check to a president,鈥� she says. 鈥淭he themes of delinquency, crime, and poverty are really strong in El Salvador right now. And citizens are prioritizing their survival over themes of democracy.鈥�

Consolidating power and weakening institutions are 鈥渁bstract concepts compared to a president who arrives with food and financial aid,鈥� Ms. Arteaga says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 how they survive.鈥�