海角大神

Latin American governments 鈥� hard hit by the coronavirus 鈥� have been doling out their thanks for international help in recent weeks. But one nation has been notably missing from their thank-you鈥檚: the United States.

鈥淲ho would have guessed that 鈥β爐he only vaccines we鈥檇 receive are Russian and Chinese?鈥� mused Argentine Vice President Cristina Fern谩ndez de Kirchner last week.

Some 2.7 million doses arrived in Mexico City from the U.S. this week. For the most part, however, Russia and China have delivered more quickly than the U.S. and Europe. This could have lasting geopolitical effects in a region long seen as relying on its behemoth northern neighbor for international leadership.

Russia and China have spent decades trying to make economic and diplomatic inroads in Latin America 鈥� through Spanish-language media broadcasting, arms sales, and trade 鈥� with varying success. But observers say their prioritizing Latin America now could have long-term payoff, from support in bodies like the United Nations to trade deals and stronger economic relations.

鈥淚t鈥檚 really clear that this is not just vaccine diplomacy, but the geopolitics of vaccines,鈥� says Andr茅s Serbin, president of CRIES, a regional think tank dedicated to social and economic issues that is based in Argentina. 鈥淚n Latin America we鈥檙e often seen as peripheral [in global affairs] but we have suddenly become an objective for countries to strengthen their own interests through a stronger presence 鈥� whether economic or strategic.鈥�

What do Russia and China want?

The U.S. decision to focus on supplying its own population first has amplified a leadership void in the region that arguably began after 9/11, when U.S. interests shifted firmly toward the Middle East and fighting terrorism. Russia and China saw an opportunity to step in.

Today, shipments are a way to demonstrate that 鈥渋f you鈥檙e in trouble, [Russia] is here to help you,鈥� says Victor Jeifets, a professor at St. Petersburg State University who focuses on Russian relations with Latin America. 鈥淲e have the ability, we have the technology. The same goes for China.鈥�

That鈥檚 a message some countries, like Paraguay, heard loud and clear. The country of 7 million is one of the last in Latin America that still recognizes Taiwan as the 鈥渢rue China.鈥澛燬enators attempted to change allegiance to Beijing last April, arguing China would better aid Paraguay amid the pandemic, though the bill failed to pass.

This week, Foreign Minister Euclides Acevedo said on television that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had encouraged Paraguay鈥檚 president to stick with Taiwan. But Paraguay has to ask its allies for 鈥減roof of their love,鈥� Mr. Acevedo said.

After COVID-19 arrived in the region, China made timely, strategic contributions, Cynthia Sanborn, a professor at Peru鈥檚 University of the Pacific, writes in a Wilson Center report. Beijing donated medical supplies and provided quick sales of ventilators, ambulances, masks, and oxygen plants, in addition to $1 billion in loans to pay for COVID-19 vaccines.聽

鈥淲hile the United States abandoned a global leadership role in fighting this pandemic, many governments in Latin America turned to China for assistance,鈥� Dr. Sanborn notes.

China was already the primary trade partner for many South American nations, and those commercial ties could strengthen. There鈥檚 also the benefit of soft power, which Russia is seeking as well, particularly as both countries face strong criticism for clamping down on citizen rights at home.

鈥淣o one [receiving doses] is worried about human rights violations or democracy in these countries right now,鈥� says Mr. Serbin, referring to China and Russia. 鈥淲hat is clear and will be remembered is that they came to help before the U.S. or the EU. That鈥檚 the perception of the people.鈥�

But unlike the Soviet Union, Russia today is interested in more than just geopolitics, Mr. Jeifets says 鈥� it鈥檚 looking for new or deeper commercial opportunities. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 have only an ideological stance with Latin America. Russia considers [the region] as one of the pillars of a future multi-polar world. Latin America is important for its many new voices in the United Nations. It鈥檚 important for Russia as a place to sell and possibly buy goods鈥� and commodities, he says.

It鈥檚 also an opportunity to stick out its tongue at the United States. Mr. Jeifets says it had to irk the U.S. that Sputnik V 鈥� the Russian vaccine, whose name harks back to Soviet leadership in science 鈥� landed and was lauded in Mexico before the U.S. sent support of its own.

Warning for Washington

That鈥檚 a fact some in Mexico think their government should leverage more, given how deeply intertwined it is with the U.S. through labor, the economy, and migration.

鈥淭he U.S. should see this as an alert signal that it鈥檚 losing influence,鈥� says Jos茅 Mar铆a Ramos, a professor at Mexico鈥檚 College of the Northern Border who studies U.S.-Mexico relations. 鈥淚t needs to rethink its approach.鈥�

It鈥檚 long been in Washington鈥檚 interest to maintain close working relations with its neighbors 鈥� most clearly demonstrated during the Cold War, when tensions between the former Soviet Union and the U.S. played out in many Latin American countries. But the need for support and investment in Latin America has been on display more recently, as well, with the uptick of migrants and asylum-seekers arriving at the southern border.

Mexico shouldn鈥檛 shy away from pointing out who鈥檚 shown up to help, and who hasn鈥檛, Dr. Ramos adds. Latin America has struggled through the pandemic, tallying some of the highest death tolls in the world, and faces a dismal economic outlook. Getting support to reopen economies 颅and sending children back to school is top of mind.

鈥淚 think there鈥檚 a justification for moving closer with [Russia and China]. The pandemic is a critical situation and these countries can be a counterweight to the U.S.,鈥� he says. Dr. Ramos stresses that lending a bigger hand to the region would be an easy diplomatic win for the U.S.

Doses are just beginning to roll in, and some critics of the deals doubt Moscow and Beijing can deliver all they鈥檝e promised. But if they can,聽pandemic assistance will 鈥渃ertainly improve Russia-Latin America relations, China-Latin America relations,鈥� says Mr. Jeifets. 鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 say it will worsen relations with the U.S., but it will make it more difficult for the U.S. to recover influence in the region.鈥�