海角大神

For Milena Fernandes, Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva鈥檚 eight years as president of Brazil marked an era of opportunity.

鈥淚 was a poor kid, who studied and worked my way up,鈥� says Ms. Fernandes, who grew up in a far-flung suburb in Rio de Janeiro鈥檚 North Zone and now works at a nonprofit鈥檚听school in the Tabajaras favela. 鈥淭he Lula era was great for me. I had good opportunities.鈥�

But Ms. Fernandes has mixed feelings about the prospect of a political comeback by Lula, as the former president is popularly known, now that a judge has scrapped corruption convictions that barred him from politics. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have a bone to pick with Lula 鈥� it was the best government we鈥檝e had until now,鈥� Ms. Fernandes says. 鈥淏ut I would really like to see a political renewal, a Brazil that鈥檚 moving forward.鈥�

While last week鈥檚 Supreme Court decision does not absolve Lula of the corruption charges, it has restored his political rights and fueled hopes among supporters that he may now challenge far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in next year鈥檚 presidential elections.

Even in the midst of corruption scandals, Lula, who entered office in 2003,听has remained a divisive but still wildly popular figure in Brazil. A poll just days before the decision to annul his convictions signaled that half of voters said they would or could听cast a ballot for him in 2022, compared with just 38%听who would or could back Mr. Bolsonaro.

鈥淟ula is the only political figure that has the strength to dispute the elections with Bolsonaro today,鈥� says Lincoln Secco, a professor at the University of S茫o Paulo, who has written extensively about Lula and his leftist Workers鈥� Party (PT). 鈥淎nd he stands a good chance.鈥�

Lula鈥檚 return to the political stage comes at a grim moment for Brazil. Mr. Bolsonaro has presided over one of the world鈥檚 worst outbreaks of COVID-19, which has so far killed 285,000 Brazilians. The populist leader鈥檚 denialist response to the crisis听鈥� including his rejection of lockdowns, masks, and until recently, vaccines听鈥� has spurred calls for his impeachment and left many Brazilians starved for a political alternative.

But Lula will still have to win over the many Brazilians who grew disillusioned with the PT during its 14 years in power, as a deep economic recession and a far-reaching corruption scandal broke the party鈥檚 spell and tainted its image. With the PT鈥檚 golden years long behind it, some wonder whether Lula can craft a compelling vision for post-pandemic Brazil.

And while Ms. Fernandes still sees Lula as the politician best prepared to return Brazil to progress, she says he will need to offer much more than nostalgia for the past 鈥� or a promise that he鈥檚 different than the incumbent听鈥� to reach the presidency again.

鈥淲e as a country are in a deep hole right now,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 want to see a plan for how we will move forward.鈥�

A tainted legacy

Fueled by a commodity boom, Lula鈥檚 two terms in office were marked by rapid economic expansion, plunging unemployment, and heady optimism for the future. Some 36 million Brazilians climbed out of extreme poverty, partially thanks to social policies championed by Lula and the PT.

鈥淎ll of this turned Lula into a very powerful figure, with a loyal base in the lowest income groups,鈥� says Antonio Lavareda, a political scientist and professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco in Brazil鈥檚 northeast. 鈥淚t鈥檚 because of this legacy that Lula still has political strength.鈥�

But the tide turned against the PT as Brazil sank into economic recession and a sprawling corruption scandal implicated dozens of the country鈥檚 business and political elite. Lula鈥檚 plans to run for a third term in 2018 were derailed when he was jailed on disputed corruption charges, clearing the way for a landmark victory by Mr. Bolsonaro, a retired military officer.

Yet observers say the anti-PT wave that lifted Mr. Bolsonaro to power is now subsiding, creating an opportunity for Lula. This is mostly thanks to the unravelling of Brazil鈥檚 vast corruption investigation 鈥� known as Operation Car Wash, or Lava Jato 鈥� amid allegations of foul play and political vendettas.

鈥淟ava Jato lost its prestige, its credibility,鈥� Mr. Secco says. 鈥淲ith all these revelations, it became clear it was acting like a type of political tool. And this is helping Lula.鈥� Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 own family has also become embroiled in corruption allegations, undermining his self-made image as a crusader against kickbacks and graft.

Lula also has the advantage of not being at the helm during the worst public health disaster in Brazil鈥檚 history. A poll this week showed 54% of Brazilians see Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 handling of the pandemic as bad or terrible.

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 broader performance has also left many wanting more. In 2018, he lured centrist voters with promises to put the economy back on a path toward growth. But the pandemic has dealt a painful economic blow and deepened unemployment. Creeping inflation has sent prices of basic staples like rice soaring, leaving millions of Brazilians struggling to put food on the table.

鈥淏olsonaro was elected with a certain vision for the economy,鈥� says Maria do Socorro Sousa Braga, a political scientist and professor at the Federal University of S茫o Carlos. 鈥淧art of the electorate sees that he鈥檚 not able to deliver and it鈥檚 looking for an alternative.鈥�

Mr. Bolsonaro was able to keep growing discontent at bay last year, thanks to a generous emergency cash voucher for those worst hit by the pandemic. But his popularity has plummeted as the program was replaced by a new, far more modest one. A recent poll shows 63% of Brazilians believe he is leading the economy in the wrong direction. Ms. Braga says winning over this centrist voter concerned with the economy will be key for Lula.

鈥淚 believed in Bolsonaro, along with the majority of Brazil,鈥� says Gilberto Zumbiachi, an electrician who lives in the coastal city of Florian贸polis. 鈥淗e promised many things 鈥� but he didn鈥檛 follow through.鈥�

Now, Mr. Zumbiachi says it鈥檚 time for a political shake-up, and he sees Lula as a welcome alternative in the next elections. 鈥淭he Workers鈥� Party brought a lot of good to Brazil; it cared about the population. It鈥檚 become clear that the current government doesn鈥檛 care about the people.鈥�

A new message?

Still, rejection of Lula remains strong among many Brazilians, as the PT has struggled to reinvent itself in the aftermath of corruption scandals. The party posted only a slight recovery in last year鈥檚 municipal elections, signaling it has not repaired its image yet, says Mr. Lavareda.

For Antoni Wroblewski, an art teacher in the southern city of Curitiba, the PT is stale and worn out. 鈥淚t should wake up and talk to society about what it needs, like it did in the past,鈥� he says.

Mr. Secco, the historian, agrees, noting the key to winning back the skeptical and disillusioned voter lies in offering a compelling vision for Brazil beyond the pandemic, as the country grapples with economic pain, a battered health system, and an uncertain future.

鈥淟ula has a legacy and a memory that guarantees him support in one part of the population. But he also needs to bring a new message for everyone else. And so far, nobody is offering a plan for the future听鈥� neither the right nor the left.鈥�