海角大神

Over the past four years, Mexico鈥檚 relationship with the United States has faced any number of tests 鈥� from Donald Trump鈥檚 infamous statements about Mexican citizens on the 2016 campaign trail, to his hanging tariffs over Mexico鈥檚 head if it didn鈥檛 cooperate on immigration.

But none made diplomatic waves like the arrest of a former Mexican official in Los Angeles.

In October, U.S. agents arrested Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos, the previous Mexican administration鈥檚 top defense official, on charges of assisting a drug cartel during his years in office. Mexico was blindsided, straining relations across the border. And this week, the repercussions escalated.

New reforms to a security law were approved by the legislature on Tuesday, restricting foreign agents, such as Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents,聽on Mexican soil, and stripping their diplomatic immunity. Although it doesn鈥檛 directly target the U.S., President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador proposed the reform following General Cienfuegos鈥� arrest, and it is expected to disrupt security cooperation between the two countries.

The U.S. and Mexico have a long history of diplomatic tussles over sovereignty, most iconically after the U.S. took upward of 500,000 square miles of Mexican territory following the Mexican-American War. But the timing of this security reform 鈥� amid a presidential transition in the U.S., following two years of what many have perceived as Mexico kowtowing to U.S. demands on migration, and at a time when violence in Mexico and drug-related deaths in the U.S. are at all-time highs 鈥� is particularly high-stakes. And the tensions that emerged from General Cienfuegos鈥� arrest have brought a resurgence of accusations against the U.S. of 鈥渕eddling鈥� and ignoring Mexico鈥檚 sovereignty.

鈥淢exico is renewing its message of nonintervention,鈥� says Analicia Ruiz, a professor of global studies at the University of An谩huac Mexico.

That message, she says, is directed at President-elect Joe Biden鈥檚 incoming administration. Despite Mr. Trump鈥檚 unvarnished approach to politics, 鈥渁t the base of it all, Trump didn鈥檛 really question the Mexican government,鈥� says Dr. Ruiz. But with all the unknowns around a new U.S. administration, Mexico is using this as an opportunity to 鈥渟et out its terms鈥� upfront, she says.

President Lop茅z Obrador, often referred to by his initials, AMLO, was one of the last leaders in the world to congratulate Mr. Biden on his electoral victory. In the brief letter sent this week, he noted the importance of nonintervention.

Affront to the army

It鈥檚 not just U.S. political transitions dictating Mexico鈥檚 move to limit DEA agents in its territory.

The amended law, now awaiting President L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 signature, would force foreign agents to share information with Mexican counterparts. Any meeting with local officials would need to be approved by a federal government security committee and be attended by a foreign ministry official. Government employees would have to submit reports if and when they鈥檙e contacted by a foreign agent, limiting the role of DEA informants, observers say.

鈥淭his is backlash from the Cienfuegos case,鈥� says Alejandro Hope, a Mexican security analyst. But the pressure to react, he says, is coming from the army.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think in any other previous administration the army had the political clout to force a confrontation with the U.S. that it has now,鈥� Mr. Hope says. AMLO has chosen to work with the army on a long list of priorities, from the construction of Mexico City鈥檚 new airport, to overseeing the new National Guard, and soon delivering COVID-19 vaccines.

Mr. Hope says the army has a long memory, and the arrest of one of its own, General Cienfuegos, was a personal affront. 鈥淭he relationship between the DEA and the army has always been tense.鈥�

Many here were angered by the apparently unilateral investigation and arrest. 鈥淪ecurity is the central theme of bilateral relations with the U.S., and what happened with Cienfuegos, that it wasn鈥檛 carried out as a team, broke civility and trust,鈥� says Professor Ruiz. U.S. prosecutors dropped the charges in November and returned him to Mexico, pointing to foreign policy considerations. So far, he faces no charges here, and many critics doubt he ever will.

Cooperation, and corruption

Observers say both countries will suffer from the reform. 鈥淚t will translate into more violence in Mexico and translate into more drugs coming into the U.S. The only winners in this whole scenario are the drug traffickers,鈥� says Mike Vigil,聽the DEA鈥檚 former chief of international operations. He says the law will stifle cooperation and information sharing. 鈥淲ho is going to take your call if they have to write a report every time they talk to you?鈥� he asks.

Mr. Hope predicts things will simply become more secretive: DEA agents in Mexico 鈥渨ill move undercover, basically,鈥� he says. Their work will continue, but information sharing and joint efforts will dramatically diminish. 鈥淭here used to be a saying in Mexico when orders came from the Spanish crown: 鈥極bey but do not follow,鈥欌�� he says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 going to be the approach.鈥�

And although some say they don鈥檛 blame Mexico for trying to keep better tabs on foreign agents operating here 鈥� would the U.S. tolerate foreign agents acting the way the DEA does in Mexico? 鈥� there are concerns over what this means for Mexico鈥檚 battle against corruption.

鈥淭here鈥檚 endemic corruption in Mexico and within its security forces. This will compromise agents, informants, operations, and investigations,鈥� says Mr. Vigil.

AMLO came into office two years ago pledging to strip the country of corrupt actors. 鈥淲e鈥檒l clean the government as if we鈥檙e sweeping a staircase,鈥� he famously pledged, committing to rid the government of corruption from the top down. In 2019, Transparency International ranked Mexico 130th out of 180 countries in its Corruption Perceptions Index.

鈥淎MLO is angry at the US for arresting a corrupt Mexican general and exposing the corruption within the Mexican military,鈥� wrote analyst James Bosworth in a tweet this week. 鈥淎MLO doesn鈥檛 seem angry at the corruption within the military. That鈥檚 a huge problem.鈥�