海角大神

Drums pound in a crowded plaza in downtown Santiago, Chile. The so-called front line of protesters standing between the demonstrations and the national police on a recent afternoon don bike helmets and handmade shields with the names of some of their almost 30 fallen peers. 鈥淭he people, the people, where are the people?鈥� they chant.

鈥淭he people are in the streets demanding dignity!鈥� the crowd responds.

But it鈥檚 not just Chileans in the streets asking for respect 鈥� and safety, and economic security, and quality public services 鈥� from their governments. Latin America rounded out the past decade with months of large-scale public protests. The tipping points for citizen discontent run the gamut, from a small increase in train fare in conservative Chile to suspicious election results in leftist Bolivia and fuel hikes in centrist Ecuador. Protesters have taken to the streets from Peru to Haiti, and from Colombia to Mexico demanding better health care and public education, and an end to corruption and rising murder rates.聽

Regardless of diverse political leanings, the region seems to be in agreement over one thing: Their聽satisfaction with democracy is on the decline.

It wasn鈥檛 long ago that nearly all Latin American nations were living under a dictatorship. But by the 1990s, the numbers had essentially flipped, replacing mano dura governance with democratic leadership and institutions everywhere from Argentina to Nicaragua, and from Chile to Guatemala. Democracy promised citizens more equality and economic opportunity, less violence and oppression. The commodities boom that bolstered many regional economies during the 2000s helped nations deliver on many of these promises,聽reducing poverty and slowly shrinking inequality in one of the most unequal regions in the world. But over the past several years, economies have sputtered, crime and violence have ticked up, and high-profile corruption scandals have hit nearly every nation, casting a pall over earlier optimism.

鈥淒emocracy has been failing to deliver on its promise,鈥� says Elizabeth Zechmiester, who directs the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University, which has tracked trends in democracy and public satisfaction in the region since 2004. 鈥淧eople feel less safe, more economically vulnerable, and that governments aren鈥檛 doing enough to respond to their basic needs.鈥澛�

Some see the fire hose of protests flooding Latin America as a sign of democratic health: Citizens are taking their leaders to task. It鈥檚 in line with protests and growing discontent with the status quo worldwide. But some worry that the frustration and lackluster responses from government officials, paired with dimming views of democracy, may further open the door to authoritarianism. How leaders respond to citizen dissatisfaction could be the true determinant of the region鈥檚 path forward, observers say.

鈥淒emocracy comes and goes in waves,鈥� says Dr. Zechmeister. 鈥淭he fact that we鈥檙e in a democracy recession right now is not entirely unique ... when we take a broad look at modern political history,鈥� she says.

鈥淏ut then, should we be alarmed? Yes. Because these periods of democratic recession have led to a lot of hardship. ... This takes a toll on quality of life and basic liberties.鈥�

鈥淏rewing discontentment鈥�

Support for democracy is at an all-time low in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the 2018-19 LAPOP AmericasBarometer regional report, based on more than 31,000 interviews in 20 countries in the region. Support for democracy as the best form of government is particularly low in places like Honduras (45%) and Guatemala (48.9%), where leaders have blatantly disregarded democratic institutions like electoral processes and anti-corruption bodies in recent years. Satisfaction with democracy, which measures the sense of how well it is working, is also falling across the region. Satisfaction has gone from nearly 60% on average in 2010 to just shy of 40% across Latin America today.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a brewing discontentment and disillusionment with democracy in the abstract and how it is functioning in practice,鈥� says Dr. Zechmeister.

That has to do with a number of factors that fall into three central categories: clean government, physical security, and economic well-being. Data in each has been 鈥渢rending in a negative direction over the past five or so years,鈥� Dr. Zechmeister says.

Corruption scandals have swept Latin America, dampening citizen faith in democracy. Brazil鈥檚 so-called Car Wash scandal implicated scores of politicians and more than one former president. The Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht allegedly bribed officials across the region, including in Colombia and Mexico. Four former presidents are under investigation for corruption in Peru, where the current leader dissolved an intractable Congress last fall, something opposition lawmakers likened to a legislative coup. (The AmericasBarometer report found an increased tolerance for dissolving legislatures in times of crisis in the region, as well.) Some 53% of Latin Americans feel corruption has聽gotten worse in their countries over the past year, according to Transparency International鈥檚 2019 Global Corruption Barometer.

Crime and violence are also on the upswing, creating a sense that governments aren鈥檛 doing enough to keep citizens safe. Out of the 20 countries with the highest homicide rates in the world, 17 are in Latin America, according to a聽2018 report by the Igarap茅 Institute, a Brazil-based think tank.

鈥淚f I鈥檓 not safe taking [public] transportation and walking home from work at night, that鈥檚 definitely the government鈥檚 fault,鈥� says Ana Regina Fernandez, a medical resident recharging her transportation card in Mexico City on a recent afternoon. Although she didn鈥檛 participate, she supported large-scale protests in the capital last year demanding that the government work to find solutions to high levels of violence in Mexico 鈥� particularly violence against women.

But it鈥檚 perhaps the region鈥檚 economy that has put the biggest dent in citizen faith in democracy, experts say. Following Latin America鈥檚 commodity boom, when tens of thousands of people moved聽out of poverty, growth started to stagnate. By 2014, South America had just over 0.5% average growth, posing a threat to the newly minted middle classes and the promise of upward mobility.

Poster child protests

The anxiety around possibly backtracking into poverty, or not gaining the education and formal employment long heralded by regional governments and multinational bodies, came into full relief last fall in Chile. The government proposed a roughly 4% fare hike for the capital鈥檚 metro, which sparked widespread protests. It was less than 5 U.S. cents, but a significant bump for聽low-income families that already spend almost 24% of their income on transportation.聽

Marcela P茅rez has been protesting since October in Santiago鈥檚 Plaza de Italia 鈥� which protesters (and Google Maps) have redubbed Plaza de la Dignidad. 鈥淥ur legislators have become deaf,鈥� says the single mother, who works in higher education. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 have people legislating who don鈥檛 know how much the metro costs at rush hour or the price of a loaf of bread.鈥�

For years, Chile has been Latin America鈥檚 poster child of stability and prosperity. Yet it is the most unequal country in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 36 mostly developed economies, and has an income gap roughly 65% higher than the OECD average.

Ms. P茅rez grew up in one of the poorest parts of Santiago and had a son when she was 17 years old. She recalls having it hammered into her, by her family and the government, that the only way to get ahead was to study. So she did聽 鈥� and she picked up tens of thousands of dollars in debt along the way, with few job prospects that could help her chip away at it. Now her son is about to enter college. 鈥淗ow am I going to pay?鈥� she asks. 鈥淚 have no idea. [The government] created a process of eternal debt.鈥�

After initially resisting protesters鈥� demands, and declaring that Chile was 鈥渁t war against a powerful enemy,鈥� President Sebastian Pi帽era rolled back the fare hikes, and promised to cut electricity costs and slightly increase the minimum wage and minimum pensions.

But the price hikes were simply a tipping point 鈥� as in many protests in the region. As protesters flooded out to demand more from their government, its early, forceful response drummed up memories of dictatorship-era repression. As protesters continued to turn out, they brought the very backbone of Chile鈥檚 government 鈥� its constitution 鈥� back into the spotlight.聽

Chile鈥檚 Constitution, approved in 1980, prioritizes then-dictator Augusto Pinochet鈥檚 neoliberal economic agenda over the guarantee of public services like access to water or health care, critics say. Many protesters demand it be replaced, pointing to the symbolic heft of its creation during Pinochet鈥檚 1973-90 dictatorship. And despite amendments to the document over the years, many argue its legal framework remains conservative, allowing few formal channels for the public to participate in political decision-making. It requires at least two-thirds approval by Congress to make any changes, a high bar.

In November, the government agreed to hold a referendum in April on whether to draft a new constitution. Fernando Atria, a constitutional lawyer and professor at the University of Chile, has been a key voice in helping Chileans understand what that might mean. He鈥檚 come out to citizen-organized neighborhood gatherings 鈥� met by cheers and applause 鈥� to explain how he views the current constitution as working against the people.聽

鈥淥riginally its purpose was to protect the political and economic model of the dictatorship, so that the coming democracy couldn鈥檛 reverse鈥� systems the dictatorship put into place, Mr. Atria says. 鈥淭he purpose was to configure a power that couldn鈥檛 make transformative decisions, and 30 years later we can see a policy that鈥檚 still marked by these characteristics.鈥澛�

Despite the struggles in Chile, outside observers say its government has taken important, if belated, steps in trying to engage protesters and listen to their demands.

In Colombia, where protests started in November following large-scale demonstrations elsewhere in the region, the government has failed to learn from the Chilean situation, says Sergio Guzm谩n, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a political risk consultancy.

Seeing neighboring protests鈥� success helped Colombia鈥檚 demonstrations gain traction, but the country鈥檚 peace accords may have played a key role, too. For decades the government was unable to deliver on expected public services because it was at war with the FARC guerrilla movement, he says. Many Colombians feel they鈥檝e been patient for so long, but with a peace deal signed and in effect, 鈥渢here are no excuses not to meet your end of the bargain.鈥�

Over 75% of Colombians believe more than half of the nation鈥檚 politicians, if not all, are corrupt, according to the AmericasBarometer report. Yet the government, already unpopular, doesn鈥檛 鈥渟eem to recognize the protesters as players with legitimate issues that need addressing,鈥� says Mr. Guzm谩n. It could lead to more estrangement and protests in 2020. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not in the government鈥檚 best interest.鈥�

Release valve ahead?

In Bolivia, the protests feel distinct from the rest of the region. What began as an uprising of citizens concerned that the longest-serving president in Latin America, Evo Morales, was gaming the system to stay in power 鈥� arguably a citizen fight to preserve democracy 鈥� has become far less clear-cut. Some protesters are now calling for the former leader鈥檚 return from exile in Argentina. Others are concerned the interim government is dead set on overturning any remnant of the Morales government, such as more inclusion for the nation鈥檚 indigenous population.

Democracy 鈥� and its unmet promises 鈥� are still at the core, observers say.聽

In late November, nearly a month after thousands of Bolivians joined pro-democracy protests that led to the ousting of President Morales, thousands more turned out in cities like Sacaba to demand his return.

Mario Olmos, a father of three who did not participate in early protests for or against Mr. Morales, decided to protest after at least nine civilians were killed there during clashes with government forces.

鈥淲e raised up against [the] injustice between classes,鈥� he says, navigating the rubble and burnt tires that cover the streets in the wake of the unrest.

During the protests against Mr. Morales, government forces didn鈥檛 respond to protests as harshly, he says, lifting up a string of barbed wire so he could carry his daughter beyond the protest zone. They 鈥渓et the rich do whatever they want, and they treat us, the poor people, badly.鈥�

Elections scheduled for May could be a release valve for some of the pressure building up over recent months. And in countries where elections went smoothly in recent years, support for democracy tended to increase, according to AmericasBarometer. That includes places such as Mexico and Brazil, where unpopular incumbents were voted out of office by populist-style leaders of vastly different political leanings.

But a winning vote alone may not be enough to buoy support for democracy. One worrying trend in the region is the attitude of young voters, who are聽particularly disenchanted with democracy, according to a 2017 United Nations report. LAPOP data found similar results. 鈥淔or the first generation born and raised in democracy, the gap between expectations ... and actual socio-economic outcomes widened the distance between societies and their governments,鈥� the report reads. Some 36% of Latin American youth say they have confidence in the transparency of election results, according to U.N. data, versus the OECD average of 62%.

How their leaders listen or react to their frustrations could determine the next chapter of regional protests, analysts say.

Governments 鈥渆ngaging these movements early on and reaching compromise鈥� could defuse tensions, says Mr. Guzm谩n. 鈥淏ut in practice we鈥檙e seeing less compromise, less willingness to engage with protesters to create a society that鈥檚 genuinely better for all.鈥�

Gabriela Garc铆a contributed reporting from Santiago, Chile. Erika Pi帽eros contributed reporting from Sacaba, Bolivia.