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For more than a decade, Mexicans have faced increasingly terrifying acts of violence by organized criminals. From beheadings to rocket-propelled grenades bringing down聽a military helicopter to thousands of clandestine graves, more than 250,000 people have been brutally murdered by cartel violence here since 2006.

Last month, after nine U.S.-Mexican dual citizens, mostly children, were attacked and killed on a quiet, backcountry road in the northern state of Sonora, President Donald Trump聽declared in a radio interview that the time had come to designate criminal organizations functioning in Mexico as foreign terrorist organizations (FTO).

This isn鈥檛 the first time U.S. officials have proposed slapping the terrorist label on Mexican cartels: It allows the U.S. more legal options in combating the violence on the U.S. border, like going after anyone believed to provide 鈥渕aterial support or resources鈥� to cartels. But last month鈥檚 proposed change received swift pushback from Mexican officials, fearing a disregard for their sovereignty if the legal designation were approved. Although Mr. Trump announced Friday evening he would 鈥渢emporarily hold off鈥� on the move, the promise has sparked debate around a key question: Has Mexican cartel violence evolved in such a way that it should be considered terrorism?

Over the past several years, Mexico鈥檚 seen a decline of the 鈥渙ld style cartel鈥� model, complete with kingpins and vast organizational structures, says Alejandro Hope, a Mexico City-based expert in organized crime and security. The criminal environment is now made up of smaller gangs and cliques, creating a much more disorderly ecosystem that relies less and less on drugs for income and increasingly on local extortion, kidnapping, or human trafficking. The Trump administration鈥檚 ability to freeze assets in the U.S. or block travel 鈥� powers that would broaden if an organization were declared a terrorist group 鈥� would do little to dismantle a 鈥渃artel鈥� that relies on extorting a local tortilla shop in a small Mexican town, even if they do employ terrifying violence, Mr. Hope says.

鈥淚f there was a time to designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorism organizations, this is not it,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is probably the worst possible time.鈥�

There鈥檚 also the bigger question of semantics. 鈥淚f everything is terrorism, what is terrorism?鈥� asks Bruce Hoffman, an expert on the topic and professor at Georgetown University鈥檚 School of Foreign Service. 鈥淭errorism isn鈥檛 terror. Terror is an emotion.鈥�

Mexican cartels may look and feel like terrorist organizations: They extort, intimidate, vandalize, and instill fear by conducting 鈥渉einous forms of violence that perhaps even eclipse ISIS,鈥� Dr. Hoffman acknowledges.

鈥淏ut even if it scares us, it鈥檚 not terrorism if it鈥檚 not political,鈥� he says. Mexican cartels are 鈥渨orking to facilitate their money-making operations, not overthrow the government.鈥�

Winners and losers

Mr. Trump said he鈥檚 been planning for almost three months to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, due in large part to the number of Americans affected by their violence and illegal activities.

The designation could offer a boost to Mr. Trump ahead of 2020 presidential elections, says Iliana Rodriguez Santib谩帽ez, a professor of international relations at the Tec de Monterrey University in Mexico City. 鈥淚f there are terrorists on the border, not just criminal groups, that makes his wall all the more pressing,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t would be really positive for his campaign.鈥�

No doubt, violence here is on the rise, with 2019 on track to become the deadliest year in Mexico. Over the course of just three weeks this fall, 13 policemen were slaughtered in a cartel ambush in the western state of Michoac谩n, nine women and children were shot and burned to death in the north, and an entire city was put under siege by cartel members trying to free the arrested son of former Sinaloa cartel kingpin 鈥淓l Chapo.鈥� Despite these jarring developments 鈥� and increasing frustration among Mexican citizens who feel they鈥檙e not protected 鈥� few experts express hope that a U.S. designation of terrorists on Mexican soil would help combat the problem.

鈥淐alling a country home to terrorists implicates that it is weak, that its institutions are vulnerable, and that it鈥檚 more or less on its way to becoming a failed state,鈥� says Dr. Rodriguez. The label would hit Mexico鈥檚 economy and international relations hard, she says. And although it could inject new resources into the fight against organized crime, after years of combating cartels through military crackdowns, the designation would offer few new approaches.

There are added complications when dealing with a neighbor on the FTO list, as well.

Mexico relies heavily on remittances from the U.S., for example. In the attempt to cut off the movement of cartels鈥� funds or money laundering, the U.S. might unintentionally freeze bank accounts associated with innocent Mexicans in the U.S. whose families rely on their earnings, Dr. Rodriguez points out.

鈥淭he bilateral story between the U.S. and Mexico and the number of Mexicans in the U.S. can鈥檛 be minimized鈥� in this discussion, she says.

The designation, if it comes to pass, could force Mexican authorities to be more aggressive in their fight against cartels in certain parts of the country, says Mr. Hope, likely the western state of Jalisco, home of the brutal Jalisco New Generation cartel. But he fears it would more likely 鈥渢hrow a wrench in U.S.-Mexico security cooperation.鈥� History offers up evidence, he says, pointing to a U.S. certification policy in place from the late 1980s that was modified in 2002. It required the U.S. president to certify each year that any major drug-producing and trafficking countries were fully cooperative with counter-drug measures.

鈥淓ach year that came around there was a flurry of tension between the U.S. and Mexico, and often cooperation came to a halt,鈥� Mr. Hope says.

鈥淢y guess would be that instead of allowing for enhanced cooperation it would make it much more difficult. It would tie the hands of the Mexican government more than it would if you engage them in other ways.鈥�

Editors note: This story has been updated to clarify that President Trump's discussion of FTOs was during a radio interview.聽