海角大神

Evo Morales, the recently ousted president of Bolivia, can claim considerable accomplishments for his almost 14 years in power.

Over those years the Bolivian economy grew, inequality fell, a new middle class emerged, and the Andean country鈥檚 indigenous population enjoyed new levels of education and prosperity as the government extended basic social services.

Many in the indigenous population, which makes up about two-thirds of the country, credit Mr. Morales 鈥� Bolivia鈥檚 first indigenous president 鈥� with delivering them a new level of respect.

But Mr. Morales also seems to have succumbed to the same temptation that other regional leaders have fallen prey to in recent decades, even as democracy has solidified in Latin America. He refused to abide by the term limits placed in the constitution during his first term 鈥� a rejection of the rules that lies at the heart of the turmoil engulfing the country since he claimed victory for an unprecedented fourth term in an election late last month.

Mr. Morales, who has accepted asylum in Mexico, resigned Sunday following weeks of social unrest and what he asserted was a coup against his presidency.

Seeking another term was constitutionally prohibited until 2017, when the country鈥檚 highest court (packed with Mr. Morales鈥� supporters) ruled that term limits violated candidates鈥� human rights; the year before, 51% of Bolivian voters rejected Mr. Morales鈥� proposal to let him run again.

After an inquiry into last month's election, the Organization of American States and experts from the international community determined there had been irregularities, and said it could not certify the results. The president agreed to a new vote 鈥� but with unrest building in the streets, the military and police that originally stood by Mr. Morales switched sides, and the Morales presidency was over.

In the following days, Mr. Morales鈥� loyalists and detractors have settled in to fight about his removal鈥檚 legitimacy. But as Bolivia tries to look ahead, past this week鈥檚 confusion and instability, the question for many observers is whether the country can rebuild a firmer footing in democracy 鈥� without sacrificing the gains under his administration.聽

鈥淭he mistake Morales made 鈥� and that still too many leaders make 鈥� is that he overstayed his welcome,鈥� says Richard Feinberg, an expert on democratization in the Americas at the University of California at San Diego鈥檚 School of Global Policy and Strategy. 鈥淗e decided he liked being in power, and so he disregarded the democratic norms, some of which he implemented, that were designed to limit one leader鈥檚 hold on power and to prevent this kind of crisis.鈥�

Vying for influence

Bolivia鈥檚 problem now is that Mr. Morales鈥� departure has left a power vacuum with various factions 鈥� including some extremes until now kept in check 鈥� jostling for control.

A senator and leader of the conservative opposition, Jeanine 脕帽ez Ch谩vez, announced on Tuesday that she would become interim president, with the primary goal of organizing new elections in three months. But her legitimacy was instantly questioned, the military remained on the streets in some cities, and dialogue among opposing political leaders and parties appeared to be nonexistent.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a mess,鈥� says Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network in Cochabamba, Bolivia. 鈥淩ight now none of what is going on is democratic,鈥� she says, referring 鈥渇irst and foremost鈥� to Senator 脕帽ez鈥檚 declaration.

鈥淪ome very frightening extremist forces are taking advantage of the situation to sow a lot of fear,鈥� she adds. 鈥淥nce again people are too frightened to go out in indigenous dress.鈥�

Most worrisome for Ms. Ledebur is that 鈥渨e鈥檙e seeing no sign of a willingness to dialogue and to bring Bolivia back to the path of democracy.鈥�

For Professor Feinberg, Mr. Morales became an example of what he terms 鈥渕inority authoritarianism,鈥� in which a once widely popular leader clings to power through increasingly undemocratic means despite eroding political support.

Another example of this in Latin America is Venezuela, where President Nicol谩s Maduro has held on to power despite shrinking popular support amid the country鈥檚 economic and social collapse.

Indeed, if the protest placards declaring 鈥淏olivia no es Venezuela鈥� at post-election demonstrations in various Bolivian cities are any indication, a widespread fear of seeing their country follow Venezuela in its downward spiral was one motivating factor for Bolivians who marched in the streets for weeks.

鈥淚n some quarters there was that fear that Morales, if he hung on after a fraudulent election, could take Bolivia down the radical road that Venezuela has taken,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. 鈥淭he big difference is that Morales steered Bolivia through years of impressive growth and rising living conditions and social equity, and retained significant popularity by the time he would try to steal an election.鈥�

Mistrust toward military

Mr. Morales maintains he was ousted in a coup, after Bolivia鈥檚 armed forces and police switched sides over the weekend and declared their allegiance to the people protesting Mr. Morales鈥� reelection and to the country鈥檚 institutions 鈥� including, they said, to the constitution.

And the deposed leader quickly found support coming from well beyond Bolivia. A number of leaders from Latin America鈥檚 political left 鈥� including Venezuela鈥檚 Mr. Maduro 鈥� echoed the position that Mr. Morales was the victim of a coup, as did others as far afield as British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and U.S. senator and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

鈥淚 am very concerned about what appears to be a coup in Bolivia, where the military, after weeks of political unrest, intervened to remove President Evo Morales,鈥� Senator Sanders tweeted Monday.

But Mr. Sanders also said the U.S. 鈥渕ust call for an end to violence and support Bolivia鈥檚 democratic institutions鈥� 鈥� which is what Bolivia鈥檚 military and police say they are doing.

Yet Latin America鈥檚 long history of military coups almost unavoidably encourages doubts.

鈥淭he military always claims to be intervening in the name of democracy, that鈥檚 part of the legacy鈥� of the region, says Kenneth Roberts, professor of comparative and Latin American politics at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

But he says the Bolivian case is 鈥渕urky鈥� and not the cut-and-dried 鈥渃oup鈥� of the past. 鈥淭his is not Chile 1973 with the military bombing the presidential palace,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut yes, it is a coup in the sense that one sector of the state has taken it upon itself to remove the president outside of the constitutional norms of impeachment.鈥�

Not all agree. 鈥淭he guy [Morales] tried to rig an election, and the country found that unacceptable,鈥� says UC San Diego鈥檚 Mr. Feinberg. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not a coup, that鈥檚 keeping democracy on track.鈥�

But the reality is that the country remains deeply divided, over both Mr. Morales鈥� fate and the way forward. And what worries many now is that Bolivia will get stuck in a period of political conflict and will risk losing the considerable gains the country has achieved over the past decade.

鈥淢y biggest fear is that Bolivia slips into a scenario of mobilization and counter-mobilization that could be very difficult to get out of,鈥� says Cornell鈥檚 Professor Roberts. 鈥淭here are some very conservative groups that want to turn the clock back鈥� on the social advances made under Mr. Morales, 鈥渁nd you can imagine the intense counter-mobilization that would form to stop that.鈥澛�

Much will depend on the inclinations of Bolivia鈥檚 new middle class, says Ms. Ledebur in Cochabamba. 鈥淩ight now the new middle class is split. There was genuine concern in the middle class about the fourth term鈥� Mr. Morales tried to go for, she says, 鈥渂ut it鈥檚 a middle class with indigenous roots that is feeling a lot of confusion over the best way forward.鈥澛�

The major threat Mr. Shifter sees for Bolivia is that its society is now 鈥渆xtremely polarized,鈥� with little give and take or recognition of the opposing side鈥檚 frustrations and demands.

鈥淭he danger now,鈥� he says, 鈥渋s that there is so much polarization that it puts at risk the advances that Bolivia has accomplished and that are very real.鈥�